{"id":596,"date":"2019-01-17T15:18:08","date_gmt":"2019-01-17T15:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/american-history-politics\/?p=596"},"modified":"2019-06-13T09:30:02","modified_gmt":"2019-06-13T08:30:02","slug":"is-us-withdrawal-from-the-inf-treaty-a-good-idea-or-is-it-merely-trumpian-pique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/american-history-politics\/is-us-withdrawal-from-the-inf-treaty-a-good-idea-or-is-it-merely-trumpian-pique\/","title":{"rendered":"Is US withdrawal from the INF treaty a good idea? Or is it merely Trumpian pique?"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Joseph O’Mahoney, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Reading<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Donald Trump announced in October 2018 that he was planning to terminate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) with Russia.\u00a0 Then, on 4 December, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that Russia was in material breach of the treaty.\u00a0 He announced that, in 60 days, the administration would suspend US obligations under the INF and withdraw in six months unless Russia returns to compliance.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

So what?\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The INF, signed in 1987 between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, prohibits the US and Russia from building ground-launched cruise missiles with a range of 500km to 5500km.\u00a0 There had been an arms build-up of this type of nuclear-armed missile in the 1970s, increasing the fears of European countries in range (e.g. West Germany was about 500km from the USSR).\u00a0 As a result of the treaty, 2700 missiles and their launching systems were dismantled.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The INF was part of a process of arms control that persisted through the end of the Cold War that not only halted the nuclear arms race between the US and the USSR but also resulted in some disarmament.\u00a0 Withdrawing from and terminating the INF would \u201c<\/span>fuel a new arms race with Russia<\/a>\u201d, increasing the chances of tensions, miscalculation, and ultimately the use of nuclear weapons.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Given these risks, why is the US withdrawing from the treaty?\u00a0 It is true that Russia has been <\/span>developing and testing<\/a> a cruise-missile system that could <\/u>be launched from a ground-based launcher, the Novator 9M729.\u00a0 The Obama administration sent Vladimir Putin a letter <\/span>claiming this back in 2014<\/a>.\u00a0 But why withdrawal, rather than other diplomatic options like <\/span>renegotiation<\/a>, or addressing Russian concerns over US weapons systems in <\/span>Romania and Poland<\/a>?\u00a0 And why now, when \u201c<\/span>withdrawal offers few benefits<\/a> and solves no significant security problem, while raising some potential costs and obvious disadvantages\u201d?\u00a0 The most plausible answer depends on knowledge of Trump\u2019s personality.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Trump is a lazy, incompetent narcissist.\u00a0 This capsule description of his foreign policy doctrine goes a long way to explaining a consistent theme in his administration; withdrawing from things.\u00a0 Trump <\/span>does not work hard<\/a>, famously watching a lot of television and <\/span>playing a lot of golf<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

He also has a track record of being <\/span>\u201cdangerously ignorant of world affairs\u201d<\/a> and does not remedy that in office by paying attention to <\/span>briefings or intelligence information<\/a>.\u00a0 And he fits the diagnostic criteria for <\/span>Narcissistic Personality Disorder<\/a>.\u00a0 How does this affect his foreign policy decision-making?\u00a0 Politics in general and foreign policy in particular is hard, slow, and usually the result of a collective effort with diffuse responsibility.\u00a0 However, some political actions are easy, quick, and obviously attributable to a single person.\u00a0 These types of actions are more appealing to Trump because he doesn\u2019t have to work hard at getting them done, he doesn\u2019t have to know much about the issue in order to know what to do and get a result, and the action results in attention being paid to Trump personally.\u00a0 Withdrawing from things ticks all of these boxes.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The list of things that Trump has withdrawn from includes such highlights as the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action aka the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and the UN Global Compact on Migration.\u00a0 He has also announced his intention to withdraw from NAFTA and the <\/span>NATO alliance<\/a>.\u00a0 Trump\u2019s insatiable attention-seeking and lack of stamina and ability explain why he likes withdrawing from international agreements like the INF.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Even if we accept all of the arguments in favour of challenging Russia on its breach of the INF, Trump\u2019s method of doing so remains inexplicable except in terms of his personality flaws.\u00a0 A public, unilateral declaration of termination, prior to any consultation with relevant allies and without a substitute plan in place, does not actually pursue the nominal goal of a Russian return to compliance.\u00a0\u00a0 Nor does it achieve Trump\u2019s <\/span>stated goal<\/a> of curbing the risk of an arms race with Russia.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

One alternative explanation is that he has an internally consistent ideological resistance to instruments of global governance that constrain US behaviour.\u00a0 John Bolton, National Security Advisor to President Trump, has certainly been consistent in his opposition to multilateral, efforts, famously opining of the United Nations building in New York, that \u201cIf it lost ten stories, it wouldn\u2019t make a bit of difference\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0 He has notably opposed UN peacekeeping and involvement in places like Kosovo and East Timor, as well as US membership of the International Criminal Court. \u00a0He also led the Bush Administration\u2019s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 and biological and conventional weapons agreements.\u00a0 He was one of the main actors pushing US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

However, Trump and Bolton do not always see eye-to-eye, as the recent <\/span>Syria debacle illustrates<\/a>.\u00a0 In unilaterally announcing withdrawal of US troops from Syria, Trump\u2019s proclivity for withdrawing from things clashed with Bolton\u2019s policy preferences.\u00a0 So, even though Trump and Bolton share a \u201c<\/span>disdain for international institutions, alliances and norms<\/a>\u201d, the force of Trump\u2019s personality continues to shape US foreign policy.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Joseph O’Mahoney, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of Reading Donald Trump announced in October 2018 that he was planning to terminate the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":600,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[37],"tags":[125,127,20],"class_list":["post-596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blogs","tag-inf","tag-nuclear","tag-trump"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs US withdrawal from the INF treaty a good idea? 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