{"id":713,"date":"2026-02-12T18:23:39","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T18:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/cmpe\/?page_id=713"},"modified":"2026-06-14T19:49:54","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T18:49:54","slug":"exrec2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/cmpe\/exrec2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Workshop “EXtremes and Rare Events in Climate and related applications” (ExREC)"},"content":{"rendered":"

15-16 June 2026
\nReading, UK<\/p>\n

Extreme climatic events such as heat waves, droughts, and flooding are expected to change drastically in the future as anthropogenic influences continue. Even more impactful are so-called tipping points: abrupt, large scale, and difficult to reverse transitions. Suspected climate tipping elements include the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet.<\/p>\n

While there is some understanding of the dynamics and statistics leading to climatic extremes and rare events, large uncertainties still remain. The rareness of these events makes both statistical inference and numerical modelling very challenging. The observational record is often too short compared to return times of interest and many of the events require high resolution models to fully resolve the complex turbulent processes involved, making simulation costly and energy-consuming. To maximise scientific progress, while limiting the sustainability impact of computation, it is essential to make the most efficient use of both data and numerical models to reduce uncertainties.<\/p>\n

The overarching goals of this meeting are therefore to<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. identify extreme events and tipping elements in climate science where mathematical methods, including Monte Carlo & ensemble methods can create significant advantages, and<\/li>\n
  2. to identify mathematical breakthroughs and open challenges that could advance the applicability of numerical sampling methods (e.g. variance estimators).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    We are inviting mathematicians and statisticians with an interest in Monte Carlo methods, statistical and machine learning modeling, as well as climate scientist with an interest in extreme and rare events, such as heat waves, droughts, flooding, and tipping elements. We are also reaching out to experts in closely related fields, such as extreme value theory, dynamical systems theory, stochastic analysis and large deviation theory.<\/p>\n

    The workshop will be hosted at the University of Reading<\/strong> on 15 and 16 June 2026<\/strong>. We aim to start around 12noon on 15 June and wrap up around 4pm on 16 June.<\/p>\n

    Register here<\/strong><\/a><\/del><\/p>\n

    Registration is free but required. The deadline for registration is 15 May 2026<\/strong>.<\/del><\/p>\n

    Venue<\/h2>\n

    Slingo lecture theatre, JJ Thompson Building<\/p>\n

    Lunch breaks<\/em> will take place in room 204, also in the JJ Thompson Building.<\/p>\n

    Whiteknights campus, University of Reading (campus map, pdf<\/a>)<\/p>\n

    View Larger Map<\/a><\/small><\/p>\n

    Travel information<\/h3>\n

    From Reading station (bus stop EK<\/a> on Blagrave Street<\/a>), you may take Bus 20 “white knight”<\/a> or Bus 21 “claret”<\/a> to the “UoR Whiteknights House<\/a>” stop, and then walk for approx. 3 min to the JJ Thompson (JJT) building. If necessary, a taxi rank can also be found near the train station. Bikes can be hired from Reading Bike Hub<\/a> (though note the 15:00 closing time on Tuesday, inquire about late drop-offs beforehand).<\/p>\n

    Schedule<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \n
    15\/06\/26<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    \u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    12:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    13:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    lunch<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT room 204<\/em><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    13:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    13:40<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Eviatar Bach<\/div>\n
    “Learning Probabilistic Filters for Data Assimilation<\/em>“<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		JJT Slingo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    13:40<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    14:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Val\u00e9rian Jacques-Dumas<\/div>\n
    “Adaptive Multilevel Splitting: Theory and application to models of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/em>“<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    (online)<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    14:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Coffee & poster session<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    15:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    16:10<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Francesco Coghi<\/div>\n
    \u201cLarge deviations in systems with slow feedback<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		JJT Slingo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    16:10<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    16:50<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Tobias Grafke<\/div>\n
    \u201cExtreme events in atmosphere and ocean via sharp large deviations estimates<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    16:50<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    17:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    “Optimal perturbation timing to sample fast, transient extreme weather events: minimalist theory and practical deployment<\/em>“<\/div>\n
    Justin Finkel<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    (online)<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    17:20<\/td>\n17:40<\/td>\nDiscussions<\/td>\n\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    16\/06\/26<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    \u00a0<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    09:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    09:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Coffee & refreshments<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    09:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    10:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Rivkah Moshe<\/div>\n
    “Large-Deviation-Based Importance Sampling for Rare Transition Paths in Overdamped Langevin Dynamics<\/em>“<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    (online)<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		JJT Slingo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    10:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    10:40<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Peter Werner<\/div>\n
    \u201cAddressing the Lack of Data Issue: Bayesian Generalized Extreme Value Statistics & AI Emulator Driven Rare Event Algorithms<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    (online)<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    10:40<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    11:10<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Coffee & refreshments<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    11:10<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    11:50<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Robin Noyelle<\/div>\n
    “How to simulate extreme events with climate models and what this can be useful for<\/em>“<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    11:50<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    12:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Vivian Fraser-Leonhardt<\/div>\n
    \u201cPredicting the Surprises: Ensemble Storylines for Unprecedented Precipitation Events<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    12:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    13:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Frank Kwasniok<\/div>\n
    \u201cData-driven anticipation and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous spatio-temporal dynamical modelling<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    (online)<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    13:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    14:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    lunch<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT room 204<\/em><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    14:20<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Joe Clarke<\/div>\n
    \u201cConditions for skilful spatial and temporal tipping point early warning signals<\/em>\u201d<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    15:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Ricardo Consonni<\/div>\n
    \u201cTangent space precursors of extreme events and critical transitions\u201d<\/em><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    JJT Slingo<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    15:30<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    16:00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    Discussions<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    <\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    A list of abstracts (under construction) can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Sponsors<\/h2>\n

    This event is funded by the Centre for Mathematics of Planet Earth<\/a> and through an Interdisciplinary Collaboration Grant of the London Mathematical Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    Confirmed speakers<\/h2>\n