## Accounting for Unresolved Scales Error with the Schmidt-Kalman Filter at the Adjoint Workshop

by Zak Bell

This summer I was fortunate enough to receive funding from the DARE training fund to attend the 11th workshop on sensitivity analysis and data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography. This workshop, also known as the adjoint workshop, provides academics and students with an occasion to present their research of the inclusion of Earth observations into mathematical models. Due to the friendly environment of the workshop, I was presented with an excellent opportunity to condense a portion of my research into a poster and discuss it with other attendees at the workshop.

Data assimilation is essentially a way to link theoretical models of the world to the actual world. This is achieved by finding the most likely state of a model through observations of it. A state for numerical weather prediction will typically be comprised of variables such as wind, moisture and temperature at a specific time. One way to assimilate observations is through the Kalman Filter. The Kalman Filter assimilates one observation at a time and through consideration of the errors of our models, computations and observations we can determine the most probable state of our model and use this state to better model or forecast the real world.

It goes without saying that a better understanding of the errors involved in the observations would lead to a better forecast. Therefore, research into observation errors is a large and ongoing area of interest. My research is on observation error due to unresolved scales in data assimilation which can be broadly described as the difference between what an observation actually observes and a numerical model’s representation of that observation. For example, an observation taken in a sheltered street of a city will have a different value than a numerical model of that city unable to individually represent the spatial scales of each street. To utilize such observations within data assimilation, the unresolved spatial scales must be accounted for in some way.  The method I chose to create a poster for was the Schmidt-Kalman Filter which was originally developed for navigation purposes but has since been the subject of a few studies within the meteorology community on unresolved scales error.

The Schmidt-Kalman Filter accounts for the state- and time-dependence of the error due to unresolved scales through use of the statistics of the unresolved scales. However, to save on computational expense, the unresolved state values will be disregarded. My poster presented a mathematical analysis of a simple example for the Schmidt-Kalman Filter and highlighted its ability to compensate for unresolved scales error. The Schmidt-Kalman filter performs better than a Kalman Filter for just the resolved scales but worse than a Kalman Filter that resolves all scales which is to be expected. Using the feedback from the other attendees and ideas obtained from other presentations at the workshop I will continue to investigate the properties of the Schmidt-Kalman Filter as well as its suitability for urban weather prediction.

## Working with other scientists in Data Assimilation

Luca Cantarello is an PhD student at the University of Leeds.  He received funding from the DARE  training fund to attend Data Assimilation tutorials at the  Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis and Data Assimilation in Meteorology and Oceanography, 1-6 July 2018, Aveiro, Portugal. Here he writes about  his experience.

Since I started my PhD project at the University of Leeds as a NERC DTP student a few months ago, I have been reflecting on the importance of not feeling too alone in doing science, exactly like in the everyday life. The risk of feeling isolated while doing research can very much apply to all PhD students, but it may be particularly relevant to cases like mine, as very few people are dealing with Data Assimilation in my university.

In this sense, joining the last week’s 11th Adjoint workshop on sensitivity analysis and Data Assimilation in Meteorology and Oceanography in Aveiro has been an excellent opportunity and I am very grateful to the University of Reading and the DARE project for having helped me to take part in it, I received funding from the DARE project which enabled me to attend.

In Aveiro I could enjoy the company and the support of a vast community of scientists, all willing to share their findings and discuss problems and needs with their peers. In the room there was an impressive synergy among many researchers who had attended the same workshop several times in the past, despite it has been held only every second or third year.

The photograph is of the hotel where the adjoint workshop was held.

The workshop has been an important training opportunity for me as I am still in the process of learning, but also an occasion to revive my motivation with new stimuli and ideas before getting to the heart of my PhD in the coming two years.

During the poster session I took part in, I got useful feedback and comments about my project (supervised by Onno Bokhove and Steve Tobias at the University of Leeds and by Gordon Inverarity at the Met Office), in which I am trying to understand how satellite observations at different spatial scales impact on a Data Assimilation scheme. I will bring back to Leeds all the hints and the suggestions I have collected, hoping to attend the next adjoint meeting in a few years and being able to tell people the progress I have achieved in the meantime.