Muayad Ismail “Distributional and Welfare Effects of IMF Programs in Sudan” – PhD Seminar

Abstract

This research aims at evaluating the distributional and welfare effects of IMF programs implemented in Sudan during the period 1960-2018. This research is expected to contribute to the current debate about the potential social impact of the ongoing IMF program in Sudan and implications for the very difficult political transition following regime change. It generally examines the validity of various claims in the literature that Fund programs are harmful for income distribution and growth. Specifically, the research evaluates the efficacy of these assumptions and the costs of IMF programs in terms of increasing income inequality and reducing per capita income for Sudanese during or after programs. To this effect, the study will use a combination of quantitative methods, including Vector Auto-regressive models (VAR) and Generalized Method of Moments. The paper will also extend the analysis to cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to further strengthen the robustness of the results.