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James Reade (Internal Seminar)
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Title: Disparate Sporting Topics: Expert Forecasts and No Shows
Abstract: This talk combines two separate pieces of research that are not obviously linked other than that they look at sport. The first considers a novel dataset of German expert forecasts of football match scorelines. Forecasts from 25 experts (21 male, 4 female, including famous former footballers and at least one rapper) are collected for over 400 matches over a year and a half, and analysed in terms of their success, but also tentatively the information that each uses. The second topic is the phenomenon of no shows – fans that buy tickets for an event but then do not attend. This is distinct behaviour from that of fans that actually attend. We don’t observe individual level data, but we do have data from Reading FC since 2004 on the number of no shows at each matches, alongside various other characteristics (total tickets sold, total in attendance, home and away spectators).