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SUMMARY:Martin Ellison\, "The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions" (GEAR Quarterly)
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Prof Martin Ellison\, University of Oxford. \nTitle: “The Ends of 30 Big Depressions” \nAbstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that\nleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest\nrates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries\, using modern nowcasting methods and a new\ndataset containing more than 230\,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1\,500\nvariables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates\, it\nseems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and\nsynthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal. \nLink: https://users.ox.ac.uk/~exet2581/30_big.pdf \nThis is a Hybrid event. If you are not a member of the University of Reading and would like to attend via Microsoft Teams\, please contact Alex Mihailov on a.mihailov@reading.ac.uk.
URL:https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/event/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly/
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