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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20201014T143000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20201014T160000
DTSTAMP:20260511T110350
CREATED:20200924T161138Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20210519T093320Z
UID:1971-1602685800-1602691200@research.reading.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Victoria Prowse (External Seminar)
DESCRIPTION:Title: Cognitive skills\, strategic sophistication\, and life outcomes\nAbstract: We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes. In particular\, we emphasize the importance of childhood theory-of-mind as a cognitive skill. We collected experimental data from more than seven hundred children in a variety of strategic interactions. First\, we find that theory-of-mind ability and cognitive ability both predict level-k behavior. Second\, older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent\, which provides support for the emergence of a sophisticated strategic theory-of-mind. Third\, theory-of-mind and age strongly predict whether children respond to intentions in a gift-exchange game\, while cognitive ability has no influence\, suggesting that different measures of cognitive skill correspond to different cognitive processes in strategic situations that involve understanding intentions. Using the ALSPAC birth-cohort study\, we find that childhood theory-of-mind and cognitive ability are both associated with enhanced adult social skills\, higher educational participation\, better educational attainment\, and lower fertility in young adulthood. Finally\, we provide evidence that school spending improves theory-of-mind in childhood. \nWatch the recording
URL:https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/event/victoria-prowse-external-seminar/
CATEGORIES:External Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20201007T143000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20201007T160000
DTSTAMP:20260511T110350
CREATED:20200924T160924Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20200929T132253Z
UID:1968-1602081000-1602086400@research.reading.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Sarah Clifford + Benson Tsz Kin Leung (External Seminar)
DESCRIPTION:Talk 1: Sarah Clifford\, “Tax enforcement using a hybrid between self- and third-party reporting” \nTime: 14:30 – 15:15 BST \nAbstract: We study behavioural responses to a widely-used tax enforcement policy that combines elements of self- and third-party reporting. Taxpayers self-report to the tax authority but must file documentation issued by a third-party to corroborate their claims. Exploiting salary-dependent cutoffs governing documentation requirements when claiming deductions for charitable contributions in Cyprus\, we estimate that deductions increase by £0.7 when taxpayers can claim £1 more without documentation. Second\, using a reform that retroactively shifted a threshold activating documentation requirements\, we estimate that at least 64% of the response is purely a reporting adjustment. Finally\, the reporting environment is the key driver of behaviour for a substantial part of the population who displays little responsiveness to financial incentives for giving. \nTalk 2: Benson Tsz Kin Leung\, “Learning in a Small/Big world” \nTime: 15:15 – 16:00 BST \nAbstract: This paper analyses how the complexity of the state space and the cognitive ability of individuals explain a wide range of abnormalities in learning behaviours. An individual tries to guess which of N possible states is true\, but has limited cognitive ability that his belief is characterised by a finite automaton of size M. The learning problem is a small world if the complexity of the world N is much smaller than the cognitive ability of the individual M\, and is a big world otherwise. I characterise the optimal learning mechanisms and show that first\, the learning behaviour\, i.e.\, the guesses of the individual\, is close to a Bayesian individual in small worlds but is significantly different from Bayesian in big worlds. Second\, it could be optimal for the individual to ignore some states in big worlds but not in small worlds. It explains ignorance learning behaviours\, such as the uses of heuristic\, correlation neglect\, persistent over-confidence\, inattentive learning\, and other behaviours of model simplification or misspecification. Lastly\, individuals are bound to agree\, i.e.\, make the same guesses\, in small worlds. In big worlds\, individuals could disagree even when they receive a large sequence of public information. \nJoin via Teams
URL:https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/event/sarah-clifford-benson-tsz-kin-leung-external-seminar/
CATEGORIES:External Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20200930T143000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20200930T160000
DTSTAMP:20260511T110350
CREATED:20200924T160744Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20201006T153725Z
UID:1965-1601476200-1601481600@research.reading.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Su-Min Lee + Shuyi Ge (External Seminar)
DESCRIPTION:Talk 1: Shuyi Ge\, “Text-based linkages and local risk spillovers in equity markets” \nTime: 14:30 – 15:15 BST \nAbstract: One stylised fact of asset returns is that the interconnectedness in idiosyncratic returns is non-negligible even in large dimensional systems. The network architecture of firms is the key to study the transmissions of local shocks.  However\, such linkage data is usually unavailable for researchers. This paper uses extensive text data to construct firms’ links that have not been documented in other sources. Utilising the novel text-based linkage data\, I quantity the strength of local risk spillovers in the equity market by estimating a heterogeneous spatial autoregressive model (HSAR) for the de-factored (idiosyncratic) equity returns. The model outperforms several alternative methods in terms of out-of-sample fit. The estimation results show that after removing the common risk factors and industry risk factors\, there is still a considerable degree of local risk spillovers\, and with substantial industrial heterogeneity. By constructing spatial-temporal spillover matrices using the estimated parameters\, we are able to identify the major systemic risk contributors and receivers\, which are of the interest to microprudential policies. From a macroprudential perspective\, a rolling-window analysis reveals that the strength of local risk spillovers increases during the crisis period\, when\, on the other hand\, market factor loses its importance. \nTalk 2: Su-Min Lee\, “Learning-by-losing: Do political parties widen representation to win elections?” \nTime: 15:15 – 16:00 BST \nAbstract: Despite the right to vote being near universal in many countries\, there still exist significant inequalities in political representation\, which may have a profound influence on policy. One contributing factor may be political parties’ selection of candidates for election. I argue that parties may learn from losing elections\, and potentially widen representation among their candidates. I exploit the unique case study of the Conservative Party learning from unexpected landslide defeat in the 1906 UK elections. I use hand-collected biographical data and machine-learning methods to classify over 2\,000 candidates. A one standard deviation increase in the Conservatives’ 1906 defeat in a constituency is associated with a 10 percent decrease in likelihood that the Conservative candidate in the 1910 elections is from the political elite\, and a 19 percent increase that they are from the working class. I find further evidence of a learning process that contributed to their recovery in 1910. \nWatch the recording \n 
URL:https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/event/su-min-lee-shuyi-ge-external-seminar/
CATEGORIES:External Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20200928T143000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20200928T160000
DTSTAMP:20260511T110350
CREATED:20200924T160626Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20200929T132308Z
UID:1962-1601303400-1601308800@research.reading.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Emma Riley + Lukas Hensel (External Seminar)
DESCRIPTION:Talk 1: Emma Riley\, “Resisting sharing pressure in the household using mobile money: Experimental evidence on microenterprise investment in Uganda“\nAbstract: I examine whether changing the way microfinance loans are disbursed to utilise widespread mobile money services impacts the businesses of female microfinance borrowers. Using a field experiment of 3\,000 borrowers of BRAC Uganda\, I compare disbursement of a loan as cash to disbursement of a loan onto a mobile money account. After 8 months\, women who received their microfinance loan on the mobile money account had 15% higher business profits and 11% higher levels of business capital. Impacts were greatest for women who experienced pressure to share money with others in the household at baseline\, suggesting that providing the loan in a private account gives women more control over how the loan is used.\n\n\nTalk 2: Lukas Hensel\, “Political activists as free-riders: Evidence from a natural field experiment“\nAbstract: How does a citizen’s decision to participate in political activism depend on the participation of others? We examine this core question of collective action in a natural field experiment in collaboration with a major European party during a recent national election. In a seemingly unrelated party survey\, we randomly assign canvassers to true information about the canvassing intentions of their peers. Using survey evidence and behavioural data from the party’s smartphone canvassing application\, we find that treated canvassers significantly reduce both their canvassing intentions and behaviour when learning that their peers participate more in canvassing than previously believed. These treatment effects are particularly large for supporters who have weaker social ties to the party\, and for supporters with higher career concerns within the party. The evidence implies that effort choices of political activists are\, on average\, strategic substitutes. However\, social ties to other activists can act as a force for strategic complementarity.\n\n\nWatch the recording
URL:https://research.reading.ac.uk/economics/event/emma-riley-lukas-hensel-external-seminar/
CATEGORIES:External Seminars
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