Economics Research

ROSES Seminar by Raphael Flepp (University of Zurich)
2023-10-27 14:30 - 16:00 (Europe/London) | Microsoft Teams
Raphael Flepp, University of Zurich, “Replication: Do Coaches Stick With What Barely Worked? Evidence of Outcome Bias in Professional Sports”

ROSES Seminar by Karl Whelan (University College Dublin)
2023-11-03 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams
Title: “Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer”
Abstract: Online sports betting is growing rapidly around the world. We describe how the competitive structure of the bookmaking market affects odds when bettors disagree about the probabilities of the outcomes of sporting events. We show that the demand for bets on longshots is less sensitive to the odds than bets on favorites. This means monopolistic bookmakers will set odds exhibiting favorite-longshot bias while competitive bookmaking markets will not have this feature. We develop a version of the model for soccer matches and use these results to explain empirical findings on odds for about 80,000 European soccer games from two different bookmaking markets.
Link: https://www.ucd.ie/economics/t4media/WP23_12.pdf

External Seminar by Sukjin Han (University of Bristol)
2023-11-08 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
Title: Semiparametric Models for Dynamic Treatment Effects and Mediation Analyses with Observational Data

Abstract: This paper proposes a semiparametric model that captures how a sequence of interventions interacts with a sequence of outcomes. In this setup, the outcome at the given period is affected by the history of treatments and outcomes, directly or indirectly through mediators. The main challenge in understanding various channels of dynamic effects is that, in observational settings, individuals make dynamically endogenous decisions whether to select into treatments. Using the approach of instrumental variables, this paper shows how the average and quantile dynamic treatment effects and mediation effects can be point identified and efficiently estimated in a class of semiparametric models under treatment endogeneity and flexible heterogeneity. Our procedure only requires binary instruments. As a byproduct of our semiparametric specification, we also identify and estimate parameters that reflect the degree of endogenous selection and time-invariant heterogeneity.

You can find out more about Sukjin’s research here: https://sukjinhan.com/

ROSES Seminar by Federico Fioravanti (University of Amsterdam)
2023-11-10 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams

External Seminar by Paul Telemo (University of Strathclyde)
2023-11-15 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
We will be delighted to welcome Paul Telemo to the Department on 15th November, to give a Department of Economics invited speaker seminar.

Title: Intergenerational Occupational Mobility and Routine-biased Technological Change

Abstract:

This paper analyses intergenerational occupational mobility in the presence of routine-biased technological change (RBTC). During the era of job polarization, fathers in cognitive jobs became relatively more likely to have sons in cognitive jobs, while the rise in low–skilled manual jobs was mainly accounted for by children of routine workers. These facts, among others, are rationalized in an overlapping generations model where both financial resources and learning ability are transferred from parents to their children. Education choices are endogenous, and the cost of education depends on the cognitive wage — hence both parents’ income and the economy-wide cognitive wage premium affect the education decision. The model is calibrated to the US economy and successfully captures key empirical patterns. Despite depressing routine wages, altruistic preferences mean that routine workers born 1950-1965 experienced welfare gains due to RBTC. However, these gains would be larger if the pace of technological change was slowed down.

You can check out Paul’s latest research papers here: https://sites.google.com/view/paultelemo/home

ROSES Seminar by Katrin Scharfenkamp (Bielefeld University)
2023-11-17 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams
Katrin Scharfenkamp, Bielefeld University, “The effect of role model’s rise and fall on cultural diversity in female football teams”

External Seminar by William Pouliot (University of Birmingham)
2023-11-22 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
Title: On kernel regression with NMAR response values

Abstract: We consider the problem of kernel regression estimation in the presence of Not-Missing-At-Random (NMAR), or nonignorable, response variables. Our proposed approach involves two steps: In the first step, we construct a family of models (possibly infinite dimensional) indexed by the unknown nonignorability component of the missing probability mechanism. In the second step, a search is carried out to find the empirically optimal member of an appropriate cover (or subclass) of the underlying family in the sense of minimizing the mean squared prediction error. Our methods use a data-splitting approach which is quite easy to implement. We also derive exponential bounds on the performance of the resulting estimators in terms of their deviations from the true regression curve in general L_p norms, where we also allow the size of the cover or subclass to diverge as the sample size n increases. These bounds together with the Borel-Cantelli lemma immediately yield various strong convergence results for the proposed estimators. As an application of our findings, we consider the problem of nonparametric statistical classification based on the proposed regression estimators and also look into their rates of convergence in different settings.

co-authors: M. Mojirsheibani and A. Shakhbandaryan

You can check out William’s latest research here: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/profiles/business/pouliot-william.aspx

External Seminar by Sam Asher (Imperial College London)
2023-11-29 08:00 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
TBA

ROSES Seminar by Helmut Dietl (Universität Zürich)
2023-12-01 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams
Helmut Dietl, Universität Zürich, “Not Good Enough or Not Right for the Team? Disentangling Sources of Statistical Discrimination”

External Seminar by Danae Arroyos-Calvera (University of Birmingham)
2023-12-06 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
Title: Risk and Plausible Deniability in Public Good Games

Abstract: TBC

Danae’s latest research is here: https://sites.google.com/view/arroyos-calvera/home

ROSES Seminar by Joshua Miller (University of Melbourne)
2023-12-08 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams

External/GEAR Visitor Seminar by George Mengov (Sofia University)
2023-12-13 13:00 - 14:30 | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
We are delighted that Professor George Mengov, our GEAR/SPEIR academic visitor this Autumn term, will give a Department of Economics invited speaker seminar on 13th December 2023
Note – this seminar starts earlier than normal, at 1pm.
Title: Economic Forecasting by a Neural Circuit Model
You can check out George’s latest research papers here: https://bit.ly/3Zn6Lim

ROSES Seminar by Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam)
2023-12-15 14:30 - 16:00 | Microsoft Teams
Thomas Buser, University of Amsterdam, “The Anatomy of Competitiveness”

ROSES Seminar by Jeremy Rosen (Georgetown University)
2024-01-12 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “Disequilibrium Play in Tennis”

External Seminar by Ulrich Voltz (SOAS - University of London)
2024-01-17 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

ROSES Seminar by Danny Hill (Loughborough University London)
2024-01-19 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: How to value a football player? Market Valuation Methodology

ROSES Seminar by Pete Groothuis (Appalachian State University)
2024-01-21 08:00 - 17:00
Title: “A Rising Tide Raises all Boats: The changing distribution of salaries in the NBA over time”

External Seminar by Andis Sofianoa (Durham University)
2024-01-21 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

External Seminar by Arnaud Philippe (University of Bristol)
2024-01-24 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

ROSES Seminar by Joshua Miller (University of Melbourne)
2024-01-26 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy, Five Years On”

External Seminar by Enzo Dia (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca)
2024-01-31 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74
We are glad to welcome Enzo Dia at Reading. His talk will combine two papers on the same general topic: “Unconventional-Policy Spillovers of U.S. Interest on Reserves within Global Dollar-Denominated Retail Loan and Deposit Markets” and “Banking in a Monetary Union“

Here’s the abstract of the first working paper: A linchpin of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional policies has been payment of interest on reserves, of which 16 to 44 percent have been held by foreign banks with U.S. subsidiaries, at a rate typically several basis points higher than other funds rates. This paper constructs a model with competition among domestic banks, foreign banks with domestic subsidiaries, and other foreign banks in dollar-denominated common and local retail markets for loans and deposits. The paper shows that the interest rate on reserves influences not only loan and deposit rates domestically but also in Euro dollar denominated foreign retail markets. We find that while the international Eurodollar market is somewhat insulated from both non-U.S. country-specific shocks and U.S. monetary policy shocks, spillovers of U.S. monetary policy actions onto non-U.S. loan markets can be quite substantial.

ROSES Seminar by Ray Fair (Yale University)
2024-02-02 02:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women”

Inaugural Collaborative Research Visit Seminar by Mathias Klein (Sveriges Riksbank)
2024-02-08 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 301
As of the summer of 2023, GEAR decided to introduce occasional short-term Collaborative Visit Seminars for researchers who are interested to come for a day or two up to a week at Reading to present and potentially work with GEAR colleagues on joint projects. We shall be holding this seminar series on an irregular basis depending on possible visits by external faculty members or policy makers aiming to engage in collaboration(s) with GEAR.
The inaugural collaborative visit seminar will be given by Mathias Klein (Sveriges Riksbank) on Thursday, 8 February 2024 at 2:30-4:00 pm GMT (London time) in Edith Morley 301 and the topic is Not All Supply Curves Slope Up (joint work with Edvin Ahlander and Evi Pappa). Abstract: We compile a unique firm-level data set containing information on prices and real output at the monthly frequency for a sample of Swedish industrial firms for more than 20 years and use it to estimate the short and medium run responses of prices and quantities to exogenous demand shocks. Inference on the supply slope is based on an IV regression of cumulative price growth on cumulative sales using global demand shocks as instruments. Not all supply curves slope upwards. The supply curve is flatter for firms with low market shares, low productivity, high unit labor costs and for exporting firms. The slope of the supply curve depends also on the aggregate state of the economy: individual supply curves are steeper in times of high capacity utilization, high inflation and of low financial volatility.
It will be possible to join via MS Teams – but, much better, do come in person. Right after the collaborative visit seminar everyone is invited to a drinks reception from 4:00 to 4:30 pm in EM301.

ROSES Seminar by Stefan Szymanski (University of Michigan)
2024-02-16 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “Discrimination and the white captain era of West Indian cricket”

External Seminar by Jean-Paul Carvalho (University of Oxford)
2024-02-21 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

ROSES Seminar by Joel Kariel (Competition and Markets Authority)
2024-02-23 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “The Sterling Effect: Investigating Racial Discrimination in the English Football Labour Market”

External Seminar by Paula Onuchic (University of Oxford)
2024-02-28 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

ROSES Seminar by Rob Simmons (Lancaster University)
2024-03-01 14:30 - 15:30 | Zoom
Title: “Do sports analytics affect player pay: Evidence from new contracts”

External Seminar by Christoph Görtz (University of Augsburg)
2024-03-06 14:30 - 16:00 | Edith Morley 74

9th GEAR Quarterly Lecture by Professor Michael Clements (University of Reading)
2024-03-12 08:00 - 17:00 | Chancellors G08
Our 9th GEAR Quarterly Lecture will be held on 12 March 2024 2:00-3:30 pm in Chancellors G08 and our speaker is Professor Michael Clements, University of Reading (details to be circulated). As usual, the lecture will be synchronously recorded and available for viewing ex-post from the University of Reading’s Research YouTube channel.
It is possible to join via MS Teams – but do try to come in person. Right after the lecture everyone is invited to a drinks reception from 3:30 to 4:30 pm in Chancellors G08.
