Economics Research

Dimitris Karlis (ROSES)
2020-10-16 14:30 - 16:00 (Europe/London)
Title:
Uncertainty in competitive balance: a model based approach
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Sonia - "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Output: Evidence from Pakistan" - PhD Seminar
2020-10-22 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
Global warming is a major ecological concern of the 21st century. The increasing trends in climate change over the past few decades have immensely affected the agricultural sector, as agricultural output is heavily dependent on variation in weather and climate. Based on this notion, I am looking into the impact of climate change on agricultural output over time. where the agricultural output is the production of five major crops, namely Wheat, maize, rice, cotton and sugarcane of Pakistan. The type of data used for this study is panel data, which is comprised of the cross-sectional data on the production of crops and time series data on the climate variables i.e. minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall from 1981 to 2018. A production function approach will be applied for analyzing the impacts of climate change on the production of major crops.

Bushan Mohan - "Modelling returns to education in a developing economy context" - PhD Seminar
2020-10-22 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief overview of the models being used to determine the returns to education in Guyana’s labour market. The models are limited to the Quarterly LFS data published by the Guyanese Government since this is the only dataset available. The paper explains the use of the ORU approach to returns to education and model taking human capital, job-related and regional characteristics hence leading to an Oaxaca decomposition as prescribed by empirical studies.

Reio Tanji (ROSES)
2020-10-23 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Reference Dependence and Monetary Incentives: Evidence from Major
League Baseball
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Matthew Yeo - "Mass Outdoor Events and the Spread of an Airborne Virus: English Football and Covid-19" --- PhD Seminar
2020-10-29 13:00 - 13:45
Abstract:
Mass attendance events are a mainstay of economic and social activity. However, such events can potentially have public health consequences by facilitating the spreading of disease. Despite these concerns, there is currently limited evidence on the extent to which such events, especially those taking place outdoor, can spread disease. To provide evidence on this, we examine how football matches that took place in England contributed to the spread of the Covid-19 virus. Our sample covers 336 league and cup matches from the Premier League down to the 8th tier of English football in March 2020 immediately before the season was halted. Combined attendance at these matches was almost 1.5m and these matches took place in around 60% of local areas. We evaluate how attendance at these matches and how full the stadia were, contributed to the spread of Covid-19 in these areas in April.

Reema Altheyab - "Female Entrepreneurship: Factors governing the Performance of Female-owned SMEs in Saudi Arabia" - PhD Seminar
2020-10-29 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
There is limited literature that examines SMEs’ growth, barriers to growth, female entrepreneurs and the Saudi economy dimension, where these are considered together. So, this research aims to make a significant addition to a small body of empirical evidence in the literature review by considering the previous dimensions together. Specifically, it aims to investigate the performance of female-owned SMEs in Saudi Arabia by measuring their sales growth and employment growth, using male-owned SMEs as a control group. It will control for the personal characteristics of the entrepreneur (e.g. age) and for the location of the business. Economic theory of entrepreneurship will be used as the theoretical lens for this research. The research instrument will be a questionnaire. Stratified sampling techniques will be utilised to collect data from 400 Saudi entrepreneurs. The results will show whether barriers to growth are greater for women than for men.

Mobolaji Alabi (ROSES)
2020-10-30 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
The financial impact of Financial Fair Play regulation: Evidence
from the English Premier League
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Abdulaleem Isiaka - "Public Expenditure Shocks and the Inequality Multiplier: Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries" - PhD Seminar
2020-11-05 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of unexpected public expenditure shocks on income inequality within a sample of middle-income countries. Also, this study investigates how different percentiles are affected by the spending shocks. The fiscal shocks are captured with forecast errors in public spending. Likewise, the local projection method is used to estimate the response of income inequality to the shocks. Additionally, this paper presents the income inequality multiplier through cross-country and within-country dimensions. By relating the multipliers of each country to its fiscal policies, this research provides valuable policy recommendations as to how fiscal consolidations might be implemented with less disequalizing effects.

Alanood Alotaibi - "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza in the UK" - PhD Seminar
2020-11-05 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
This study investigates the link between the 1918 Influenza and economic growth in the UK. The pandemic
caused about 160,000 deaths in in England and Wales. The study applies an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. We find evidence of a strong and significant adverse effect of the pandemic on growth.

Juan D. Moreno-Ternero (ROSES)
2020-11-06 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Broadcasting La Liga
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Deepita Chakravarty (External Seminar)
2020-11-11 14:30 - 16:00
Title: Hidden from the data: Landholding patterns and women’s low work participation rates in West Bengal, India
Abstract: Compared with most other Indian states, women’s reported work participation rates have historically been low in West Bengal. This trend is more prominent in rural areas. Historians have tried to explain this phenomenon in terms of culture and the ideology of domesticity. While persisting cultural prohibitions must have some explanatory merit, it is difficult to understand how social attitudes have remained significantly unchanged over a long period of time in a state where there is considerable economic distress. The objective of this paper is to understand whether economic factors help to sustain cultural traits, and if so, what those economic factors are. More specifically, it tries to see whether the low visibility of working women in published data can also be explained by factors such as landholding patterns. The paper is based on secondary data.
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Agnes Martins (ICMA, Henley Business School) - "Basel II/III Implementation in Nigeria: Impact on the Resilience of its Banking Sector" - PhD Seminar
2020-11-12 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract:
The last twelve years have been characterised by a myriad of banking reforms in response to the 2007 to 2009 global financial crisis which propagated rapidly across the world. Nigeria, Africa’s largest country by population and gross domestic product, and a leading country for foreign direct investment, was not spared from the contagion effect. In line with best practice banking reforms all over the world, Nigeria adopted Basel II and some elements of the Basel III capital framework in 2014, after a banking sector crisis from 2009 to 2012. This study aims to investigate the impact of these reforms on the resilience of the Nigerian Banking Industry. Firstly, discussing the impact of reforms in Africa generally, it then focuses on Nigeria. It uses the Industry Bank Z-score as its primary measure of resilience. The study finds that a positive impact of the reforms is revealed after controlling for macroeconomic factors in most African countries. In Nigeria, the success of the reforms is further contingent on limiting leverage, incorporating sound corporate governance, and improving the business environment in terms of better regulation and the investment climate.

Caterina Muratori (Reading/Collegio Carlo Alberto) - "The impact of abortion access on women's agency" - PhD Seminar
2020-11-12 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
In this paper, I document the centrality of reproductive rights, and in particular of the abortion right, in women’s empowerment process. Limiting access to abortion implies higher rate of unintended pregnancies and subsequent lower bargaining power for women, particularly among poor and vulnerable groups. I start from the evidences that estimate a sharp reduction in the abortion rate and an increase in the fertility rate after the implementation of many state laws regulating abortion in U.S., the so-called Targeted Restrictions on Abortion Providers (TRAP). I evaluate the second order effect of these restrictive policies on violence against women within family and in the workplace, using variation caused by House Bill 2 of 2013 that suddenly closed nearly a half of Texas’ abortion clinics and doubled, on average, the distance from a Texas resident to her nearest clinic. I use a difference-in-difference design with year and city fixed effects to estimate the impact of a variation in abortion access on the number of reported cases of gender violence, using within city variation in access across time. A 30 minutes increase in distance from a city’s centroid to the nearest abortion clinic is associated with a 5.5% percent increase in the number of reported cases of gender violence the same period and a 5.7% percent increase the following year. The major part of the effect of restriction on abortion access on gender violence is driven by the impact on intimate partner violence (IPV).

John Whitehead (ROSES)
2020-11-13 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Beyond ghost games: The value of attendance with masking and social distancing in U.S. professional sports
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Jian Chen (ICMA)– “Modelling Price and Volatility Jump Clustering by Marked Hawkes Process” – PhD Seminar
2020-11-19 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
This paper studies clustering behaviours of price and volatility jumps using high-frequency data, modelled using a Marked Hawkes Process embedded in a bivariate jump-diffusion model. Under de-periodisation, we find evidence showing self-excitation behaviours of jumps in both individual stocks and an index. Also, considering positive, negative price jumps and volatility jumps, the impact that an occurrence of a jump in one dimension has on that in another dimension is shown to be asymmetry. More importantly, the extent of this impact is shown empirically to be positively correlated with jump size. We also formalise the self-excitement and self-freeze properties of durations between two jumps. More self-freeze behaviours have been found in empirical studies. We estimate model parameters using Bayesian inference by Markov Chains Monte Carlo.

Petr Parshakov (ROSES)
2020-11-20 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Job Change and Productivity: The Effect of High Performance Expectations
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Macroeconomics and Reality: Where Are We Now?
2020-11-24 | Zoom
Programme
Click here for the full conference programme.
Aim of the Conference
Macroeconomists are responding to extraordinary challenges. We are learning in real time; adapting and improving existing models, whilst expanding and incorporating new methods to understand better our complex and evolving reality. Forty years after the publication of Christopher Sims’s seminal paper on Macroeconomics and Reality, we look to share, debate and evaluate some of the new models and methods in macroeconomics which address our biggest policy challenges – and perhaps hold the greatest promise for the future. The intended audience is colleagues and graduate students in economics, policymakers, governments, think-tanks, and research economists across the world.
Background
The world economy had a testing last decade and faces further challenges in the decade ahead. In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis we saw productivity growth evaporate, rising concerns about inequalities, and an erosion of public support for economic integration. The traditional policy answer of borrowing and spending has led to the highest world debt-to-GDP ratios in history; and interest rates, in advanced economies at least, that are at or close to their effective lower bound. Asset prices continue to rise, while major economies seem as close to deflation as inflation. Environmental degradation continues as we may be heading towards an ecological catastrophe. And now we start the new decade with the COVID-19 virus, a global health pandemic which also exacerbates many of these challenges.
Anyone looking from a distance might wonder whether the global economy is really approaching a steady state, under any reasonably realistic definition. And yet there are reasons for at least some professional optimism. The fiscal and monetary response to COVID-19 has been very different (and more successful) compared to the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Computing power allows us vastly to expand our methods of analysis to include heterogeneity, direct interaction between agents, and handling Big Data. The pandemic has finally forced us to look beyond our discipline and consider how we might achieve a more integrated framework for our greatest real-world problems. This opens up the possibility of making real progress on tackling our greatest policy challenges.
Registration
To register for this event, please contact Richard Arnold at r.arnold@niesr.ac.uk
Organizers
Economic Analysis Research Group, University of Reading, and ESRC’s Rebuilding Macroeconomics network.
Conference Website
Further information and materials will become available at the conference website: https://sites.google.com/view/macro-and-reality-earg-rm-conf/home

Miguel Fonseca (External Seminar)
2020-11-25 14:30 - 16:00
Title: Cartel deterrence and manager labor market in US and EU antitrust jurisdictions: theory and experimental data (joint with Ricardo Goncalves, Joana Pinho and Giovanni Tabacco)
Abstract: We explore the consequences to contract design if firm shareholders are intent on their managers engaging in price fixing activities under different legal regimes. We show that in fine-only legal regimes, optimal contracts must have a fixed wage. In contrast, in fine-plus-prosecution legal regimes optimal contracts must be high-powered, involving a variable component. We test these predictions in a laboratory experiment. We observe contract choices of firm owners, for a given legal regime, as well as the likelihood of managers forming explicit cartels and coordinating on prices in an indefinitely repeated Bertrand oligopoly, taking contract and legal regime as given. The data show that prosecuting managers leads to lower collusion, but high-powered contracts do not incentivize cartel formation or price coordination effectively, irrespective of legal regime. Nevertheless, high-powered contracts were most frequently chosen by firm owners, often with collusive intents.
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Ana Sina - "Leveraged Loans, Systemic Risk and Network Interconnectedness" - PhD Seminar
2020-11-26 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
Especially among those who lived the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, it is likely that few regulators will instinctively be careless about the above pre-crisis level achieved by the global syndicated leveraged loans. We introduce global syndicated leveraged loans to study the relationship between systemic risk, syndicated leveraged loans, and network interconnectedness. We gather our daily deal-level loans from SDC Platinum Database and analyze the U.S. and European syndicated loans, that together account for almost 80% of the global syndicated database during the period from 1988 to 2019. By distinguishing between leveraged and other syndicated loans, we develop a novel measure of systemic risk as the ratio between leveraged and total loans that each lead arranger holds. We make the following contributions. First, we show that leveraged loans have already exceeded the pre-financial crisis level, which may pose financial stability concerns. Second, we relate our novel measure with the systemic risk of each financial institution and find a significant correlation, which may suggest that this new measure is employable as an early-warning. Finally, since the syndicated loan market can be represented as a network where the linkages and nodes are based on real collaborations among lead arrangers, we show that the financial institutions that have a larger proportion of leveraged loans in their portfolio are the most central in the network and this may cause possible implications for the future financial stability.

Wei-Fong Pan - "The Labour Market Effect of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty" (PhD Seminar)
2020-11-26 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
This study examines the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on job searches and labour demand in the United States. We first develop search-based job search indices and find that increased FPU leads to lower job search levels. At the same time, when FPU rises, labour demand is also reduced. The effect of FPU varies across different regions and is also affected by the prevailing monetary policy stance and the level of government debt. Labour market institutions can help explain these differences. Lastly, FPU reduces matching efficiency in labour markets. These results are robust to alternative specifications, the consideration of the effect of uncertainty from risk, and the endogeneity problem.

Alex Farnell (ROSES)
2020-11-27 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Special Ones? The Effect of Head Coaches on Football Team Performance
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Mobolaji Alabi (ICMA) - "The financial impact of Financial Fair Play regulation: Evidence from the English Premier League" - PhD Seminar
2020-12-03 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
In response to the ailing financial situation of European Football clubs, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulation in 2011 to guide clubs towards profitability and sustainability. The existing literature is inundated with the impacts of FFP on footballing competitiveness. However, this study focuses on FFP’s impact on financial performance. The English Premier League (EPL) – with the highest losses and debt level in Europe pre-FFP – is an excellent scene to assess the effectiveness of FFP. Drawing on financial data of 37 football clubs in the EPL and applying difference-in-differences quasi-experiment, we measure the effectiveness of the regulation. We find statistical significance for improved profitability; however, solvency is yet to experience similar improvements. We believe our findings and subsequent regulatory recommendations can further improve the financial performance of football clubs.

Sofia Paklina (ROSES)
2020-12-04 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Referee Bias and International Relations
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Anh Nguyen (ICMA) - "The real impact of sovereign rating changes: Sovereign ceiling or crowding out of public debts?" - PhD Seminar
2020-12-10 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of sovereign ratings on domestic corporate investments. Based on a sample of 1757 non-financial firms in 51 countries from 1994 to 2018, we find significant impacts of sovereign ratings on domestic investments, after controlling for corporate creditworthiness. Specifically, firms domiciled in a recently downgraded sovereign reduce investments by 32%, even if their credit ratings are unchanged following the negative sovereign rating event. There is no evidence of increases in firms’ investments following sovereign upgrades. Further investigations reveal that a crowding out effect of government debts is an important channel for corporate-sovereign rating spillovers. Public debt overhangs exacerbate negative impacts of sovereign downgrades on corporate investing activities.

Roger Titford (ROSES)
2020-12-11 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
England’s first football boom 1872-1914 and its 21st century parallels
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Georgios Nalbantis (ROSES)
2020-12-18 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Substitution effects between international soccer telecasts
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Georg Stadtmann (ROSES)
2021-01-08 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Fortnite: The Business Model Pattern Behind the Scene
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Mario Lackner (ROSES)
2021-01-15 14:30 - 16:00
Title:
Do male managers increase risk-taking of female teams? Evidence from the NCAA
About ROSES:

An online series of sport economics seminars, organised by James Reade, Carl Singleton and Adrian Bell, part of the Football Economics Research Group at the University of Reading.
All Seminars take place 2:30-4pm, UK time, and will take place on Microsoft Teams.

Joining Instructions:

Seminar via Microsoft Teams. Contact James Reade at j.j.reade@reading.ac.uk

Michael Simmons (RHUL) "Pre-layoff search" - PhD Seminar
2021-01-21 13:00 - 13:45 | Microsoft Teams
See Michael’s personal website here
Abstract
Are workers able to foresee job loss? If so, how many and how far in advance? In this paper, I document the extent to which workers change their search behaviour before job loss in the UK. In particular, for low and high skill workers, search incidence increases by 17and 32 percentage points, respectively, during the quarter that precedes job loss, and this increased incidence is predominantly due to workers “thinking their job may end”. Equipped with this information, I build a search model of the labour market with stochastic human capital, where workers may receive information of job insecurity, and are able to respond by picking their search effort and savings. I show that that the dynamics of pre-layoff search pins down key parameters governing the changes in the average worker’s information set prior to unemployment. The model estimates reveal that, 50% and 67% of low and high skill workers, respectively, know of impending job loss on average about three months before becoming unemployed. As well as fitting the dynamics of pre-layoff search, the model is also able to replicate the level of involuntary job switching, and the costs of job loss for workers who immediately find new employment and for workers who do not. I decompose the difference sin the costs of job loss into the underlying forces at play. I find that the smaller costs of job loss for those managing to switch employers, relative to those who transition into unemployment, are predominantly due to workers avoiding skill loss in unemployment. Counterfactual analysis shows that if workers were unable to foresee job loss, the unemployment rate would rise by 20% and consumption would fall by over 1%. The results reveal that increasing search following the pre-layoff warning is far more valuable to the worker than to increase savings. Finally, I use the model to understand the implications for salient policies, designed to mitigate the costs of job loss.

Muayad Ismail "Distributional and Welfare Effects of IMF Programs in Sudan" - PhD Seminar
2021-01-21 13:45 - 14:30 | Microsoft Teams
Abstract
This research aims at evaluating the distributional and welfare effects of IMF programs implemented in Sudan during the period 1960-2018. This research is expected to contribute to the current debate about the potential social impact of the ongoing IMF program in Sudan and implications for the very difficult political transition following regime change. It generally examines the validity of various claims in the literature that Fund programs are harmful for income distribution and growth. Specifically, the research evaluates the efficacy of these assumptions and the costs of IMF programs in terms of increasing income inequality and reducing per capita income for Sudanese during or after programs. To this effect, the study will use a combination of quantitative methods, including Vector Auto-regressive models (VAR) and Generalized Method of Moments. The paper will also extend the analysis to cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to further strengthen the robustness of the results.
