Economics Research

External Seminar by Xiaochun Meng (University of Sussex)
2023-10-25 14:30 - 16:00 (Europe/London) | Edith Morley 126, United Kingdom
We will be delighted to welcome Xiaochun Meng to the Department on 25 October 2023, to give a Department of Economics invited speaker seminar.

Title: Generalized linear pools for combining probabilistic forecasts

Abstract: For many applications, combining the individual probabilistic forecasts can improve their accuracy. The existing literature has extensively explored linear pools of forecasts of cumulative distribution functions or quantile functions. A general framework of combining methods is proposed, which encompasses the existing linear pools. We analyse the statistical properties of the proposed generalized linear pools. The framework and theoretical findings enable the provision of recommendations regarding the choice of combining methods and scores to use in practice. An empirical illustration is provided on simulated and real data.

You can check out Xiaochun’s latest research here: https://profiles.sussex.ac.uk/p449675-xiaochun-meng
