{"id":3044,"date":"2022-06-06T15:54:19","date_gmt":"2022-06-06T14:54:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/?post_type=tribe_events&#038;p=3044"},"modified":"2022-06-06T15:55:23","modified_gmt":"2022-06-06T14:55:23","slug":"martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/","title":{"rendered":"Martin Ellison, &#8220;The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions&#8221; (GEAR Quarterly)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Speaker<\/strong>: Prof Martin Ellison, University of Oxford.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Title<\/strong>: &#8220;The Ends of 30 Big Depressions&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract<\/strong>: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that<br \/>\nleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest<br \/>\nrates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new<br \/>\ndataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500<br \/>\nvariables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it<br \/>\nseems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and<br \/>\nsynthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.<\/p>\n<p>Link: <a href=\"https:\/\/users.ox.ac.uk\/~exet2581\/30_big.pdf\">https:\/\/users.ox.ac.uk\/~exet2581\/30_big.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is a Hybrid event. If you are not a member of the University of Reading and would like to attend via Microsoft Teams, please contact Alex Mihailov on <a href=\"mailto:a.mihailov@reading.ac.uk\">a.mihailov@reading.ac.uk<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Speaker: Prof Martin Ellison, University of Oxford. Title: &#8220;The Ends of 30 Big Depressions&#8221; Abstract: How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#101;&#99;&#111;&#110;&#111;&#109;&#105;&#99;&#115;&#47;&#101;&#118;&#101;&#110;&#116;&#47;&#109;&#97;&#114;&#116;&#105;&#110;&#45;&#101;&#108;&#108;&#105;&#115;&#111;&#110;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#101;&#45;&#101;&#110;&#100;&#115;&#45;&#111;&#102;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#105;&#114;&#116;&#121;&#45;&#98;&#105;&#103;&#45;&#100;&#101;&#112;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#115;&#105;&#111;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#103;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#45;&#113;&#117;&#97;&#114;&#116;&#101;&#114;&#108;&#121;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":253,"featured_media":3046,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[],"coauthors":[44],"class_list":["post-3044","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Martin Ellison, &quot;The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions&quot; (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Martin Ellison, &quot;The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions&quot; (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Economics Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-06T14:55:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/87\/2022\/06\/B28546-GEAR-Social-Media-Graphic-JM-v2-PROOF-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1344\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"James Reade\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/\",\"name\":\"Martin Ellison, \\\"The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions\\\" (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-06T14:54:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-06T14:55:23+00:00\",\"description\":\"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Events\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/events\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Martin Ellison, &#8220;The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions&#8221; (GEAR Quarterly)\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/\",\"name\":\"Economics Research\",\"description\":\"A hub of news, events, publications &amp; research clusters \",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Martin Ellison, \"The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions\" (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research","description":"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Martin Ellison, \"The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions\" (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research","og_description":"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/","og_site_name":"Economics Research","article_modified_time":"2022-06-06T14:55:23+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1344,"url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/87\/2022\/06\/B28546-GEAR-Social-Media-Graphic-JM-v2-PROOF-scaled.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"1 minute","Written by":"James Reade"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/","name":"Martin Ellison, \"The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions\" (GEAR Quarterly) - Economics Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/#website"},"datePublished":"2022-06-06T14:54:19+00:00","dateModified":"2022-06-06T14:55:23+00:00","description":"How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument thatleaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/event\/martin-ellison-the-ends-of-thirty-big-depressions-gear-quarterly\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Events","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/events\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Martin Ellison, &#8220;The Ends of Thirty Big Depressions&#8221; (GEAR Quarterly)"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/","name":"Economics Research","description":"A hub of news, events, publications &amp; research clusters ","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/3044","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/tribe_events"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/253"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/3044\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3047,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/3044\/revisions\/3047"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3044"},{"taxonomy":"tribe_events_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events_cat?post=3044"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=3044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}