{"id":2686,"date":"2025-11-19T12:52:03","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T12:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/engagement-and-impact\/?p=2686"},"modified":"2026-02-23T12:54:36","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T12:54:36","slug":"monsoon-storms-will-bring-heavier-rains-but-become-weaker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/engagement-and-impact\/monsoon-storms-will-bring-heavier-rains-but-become-weaker\/","title":{"rendered":"Monsoon storms will bring heavier rains but become weaker"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Climate change will make monsoon storms in South Asia wetter and weaker, with more storms pushing further inland across India.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists from the University of Reading used 13 climate models to understand how warming temperatures will affect monsoon low-pressure systems. These storms deliver more than half of all monsoon rainfall and\u00a0nearly all\u00a0extreme rainfall events across South Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

The research, published in the\u00a0<\/span>Journal of Climate<\/em><\/i><\/a><\/span>, found that storms will become about 10% weaker by the time global temperatures rise 3\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. Despite becoming weaker, each storm will produce more rain \u2013 up to 28% more for the strongest storms. By the time temperatures reach 2\u00b0C of warming, average rainfall from each storm will increase by\u00a0roughly 10%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dr Kieran Hunt <\/span>from the University of Reading<\/span>\u00a0and lead author<\/span>, said: \u201cHow can weaker storms produce more rain? It sounds wrong, but the answer<\/span>\u00a0partly<\/span>\u00a0lies in changes to moisture patterns. Warming temperatures increase the difference in moisture levels between northern and southern India. Winds ahead of storms push this extra moisture into the rainfall zone, making storms wetter even though their winds are slower.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

More storms and more flooding<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

The study suggests the number of monsoon storms will increase as temperatures rise. Models show\u00a0roughly 15% more\u00a0storms when temperatures reach 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, though the increase varies between 10% and 36% depending on specific atmospheric patterns. The findings also\u00a0indicate\u00a0the time storms spend over land after moving from the ocean will increase significantly between 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C of warming, meaning western parts of India will face growing flood risks as temperatures rise.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Four\u00a0possible future\u00a0scenarios based on different patterns of atmospheric circulation and moisture were created by the researchers, with all scenarios agreeing that more storms will also likely affect regions including Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Professor Andy Turner, co-author, said: \u201cWe found four different pathways the monsoon could take as the world warms, but the message is the same across all of them. Wetter, more frequent storms will reach areas that rarely see them today. One scenario showed storms could increaseby 36% if wind patterns change to bring more disturbances from Southeast Asia into the Bay of Bengal. Whichever path we follow, western India needs to prepare for more flooding.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Published: 19 November 2025<\/p>\n

Read: <\/strong><\/span>Wetter, weaker, and more frequent monsoon low-pressure systems in CMIP6 future scenarios<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Image: McKay Savage, via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Climate change will make monsoon storms in South Asia wetter and weaker, with more storms pushing further inland across India. 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