The Football Research Group has produced its latest research paper, led by members James Reade and Carl Singleton. This has been published as a working paper in the Department of Economics Discussion Papers series. This project relates closely to the Scorecasting Economists and James Reade’s appearance last season on BBC Sport’s Football Focus to take on Mark Lawrenson in the football scoreline prediction contest.

A brief summary:

The study analyses point forecasts for a common set of events. These forecasts
were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. The event
outcomes were low-probability but had more predictable sub-outcomes upon which
they were also judged. Hence, the forecasts were multi-dimensional, complicating
any evaluation. The events were football matches in the English Premier League.
The forecasts were of exact scoreline outcomes. We compare these with implied
probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point
and probabilistic forecasts generated from a statistical model suited to predicting
football match scorelines. By evaluating these sources and types of forecast using
various methods, we decide that forecasts of this type are strange, which we define.
We argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point
and probabilistic forecasts, and find that both types of forecasts for football match
scorelines generally add information to one another.

Read more about it and view other Department of Economics Discussion Papers here.