The main findings of the research are:
- Online bookmaker odds are generally unbiased for English football match results
- This online betting and prediction market is efficient
- Bookmakers do not fully use the information contained in their competitors’ odds
The research studies the odds (or prices) set by fifty-one online bookmakers, for the result outcomes in over 16,000 association football matches in England since 2010. Adapting a methodology typically used to evaluate forecast efficiency, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is tested. Odds are generally not biased when compared against actual match outcomes, both in terms of favourite-longshot or outcome types. But individual bookmakers are not efficient. Their own odds do not appear to use fully the information contained in their competitors’ odds.