{"id":516,"date":"2019-10-10T09:30:12","date_gmt":"2019-10-10T08:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/?p=516"},"modified":"2019-10-10T09:33:49","modified_gmt":"2019-10-10T08:33:49","slug":"evaluating_strage_forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/evaluating_strage_forecasts\/","title":{"rendered":"New Working Paper: &#8220;Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Football Research Group has produced its latest research paper, led by members <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/about\/staff\/j-j-reade.aspx\">James Reade<\/a><\/span><\/strong> and <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/about\/staff\/c-a-singleton.aspx\">Carl Singleton<\/a><\/span><\/strong>. This has been published as a working paper in the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/economics\/research\/discussion-papers\/\">Department of Economics Discussion Papers series<\/a><\/strong><\/span>. This project relates closely to the <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.reading.ac.uk\/econscorecast\/\">Scorecasting Economists<\/a><\/strong><\/span> and James Reade&#8217;s appearance last season on <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sport\/football\/47886436\">BBC Sport&#8217;s Football Focus<\/a><\/strong><\/span> to take on Mark Lawrenson in the football scoreline prediction contest.<\/p>\n<p>A brief summary:<\/p>\n<p>The study analyses point forecasts for a common set of events. These forecasts<br \/>\nwere made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. The event<br \/>\noutcomes were low-probability but had more predictable sub-outcomes upon which<br \/>\nthey were also judged. Hence, the forecasts were multi-dimensional, complicating<br \/>\nany evaluation. The events were football matches in the English Premier League.<br \/>\nThe forecasts were of exact scoreline outcomes. We compare these with implied<br \/>\nprobability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point<br \/>\nand probabilistic forecasts generated from a statistical model suited to predicting<br \/>\nfootball match scorelines. By evaluating these sources and types of forecast using<br \/>\nvarious methods, we decide that forecasts of this type are strange, which we define.<br \/>\nWe argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point<br \/>\nand probabilistic forecasts, and find that both types of forecasts for football match<br \/>\nscorelines generally add information to one another.<\/p>\n<p>Read more about it and view other Department of Economics Discussion Papers <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ideas.repec.org\/s\/rdg\/emxxdp.html\">here<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Football Research Group has produced its latest research paper, led by members James Reade and Carl Singleton. This has been published as a working paper in the Department of&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#102;&#111;&#111;&#116;&#98;&#97;&#108;&#108;&#45;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#47;&#101;&#118;&#97;&#108;&#117;&#97;&#116;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#95;&#115;&#116;&#114;&#97;&#103;&#101;&#95;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#101;&#99;&#97;&#115;&#116;&#115;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206,"featured_media":521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>New Working Paper: &quot;Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines&quot; - Football Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/evaluating_strage_forecasts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Working Paper: &quot;Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines&quot; - Football Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Football Research Group has produced its latest research paper, led by members James Reade and Carl Singleton. 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