{"id":664,"date":"2020-08-31T14:39:53","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T13:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/?p=664"},"modified":"2020-08-31T14:39:53","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T13:39:53","slug":"new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/","title":{"rendered":"New Journal Article: “Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Members of the Football Research Group, James Reade<\/a> and Carl Singleton<\/a>, along with the Nottingham Trent University’s Leighton Vaughan Williams<\/a>, will have their latest research on forecasting football match outcomes and the efficiency of betting markets published in Economic Issues<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n

Using betting odds from two recent seasons of English Premier League football matches, we evaluate probability and point forecasts generated from a standard statistical model of goal scoring. The bookmaker odds show significant evidence of the favourite-longshot bias for exact scorelines, which is not generally present for match results. We find evidence that the scoreline probability forecasts from the model are better than what the odds of bookmakers imply, based on forecast encompassing regressions. However, when we apply a simple betting strategy using point forecasts from the model, there are no substantial or consistent financial returns to be made over the two seasons. In other words, there is no evidence from this particular statistical model that the result, scoreline, margin of victory or total goals betting markets are on average inefficient.<\/p>\n

Read more about it here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Members of the Football Research Group, James Reade and Carl Singleton, along with the Nottingham Trent University’s Leighton Vaughan Williams, will have their latest research on forecasting football match outcomes…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":206,"featured_media":665,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew Journal Article: "Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model" - Football Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"New Journal Article: "Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model" - Football Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Members of the Football Research Group, James Reade and Carl Singleton, along with the Nottingham Trent University’s Leighton Vaughan Williams, will have their latest research on forecasting football match outcomes...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Football Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/eilogo2.gif\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"104\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"108\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Carl Singleton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Carl Singleton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Carl Singleton\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/66845389e5077a61c8bb07ce163eaff2\"},\"headline\":\"New Journal Article: “Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model”\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\"},\"wordCount\":194,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Football\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\",\"name\":\"New Journal Article: \\\"Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model\\\" - Football Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"New Journal Article: “Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model”\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/\",\"name\":\"Football Research\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization\",\"name\":\"University of Reading\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/ReadingHenleylogo.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/ReadingHenleylogo.jpg\",\"width\":267,\"height\":82,\"caption\":\"University of Reading\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/66845389e5077a61c8bb07ce163eaff2\",\"name\":\"Carl Singleton\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/c220272c0d57772f8a3d2be2dfeedbbe\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a2c4193c1d32c734a7123de8bbba152dcfbbaf89d69d27dcf507fe9c5798f7b4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a2c4193c1d32c734a7123de8bbba152dcfbbaf89d69d27dcf507fe9c5798f7b4?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Carl Singleton\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/author\/c-a-singletonreading-ac-uk\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"New Journal Article: \"Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model\" - Football Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"New Journal Article: \"Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model\" - Football Research","og_description":"Members of the Football Research Group, James Reade and Carl Singleton, along with the Nottingham Trent University’s Leighton Vaughan Williams, will have their latest research on forecasting football match outcomes...Read More >","og_url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/","og_site_name":"Football Research","article_published_time":"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00","og_image":[{"width":104,"height":108,"url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/eilogo2.gif","type":"image\/gif"}],"author":"Carl Singleton","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Carl Singleton","Estimated reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/"},"author":{"name":"Carl Singleton","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/66845389e5077a61c8bb07ce163eaff2"},"headline":"New Journal Article: “Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model”","datePublished":"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00","dateModified":"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/"},"wordCount":194,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Football"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/","name":"New Journal Article: \"Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model\" - Football Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#website"},"datePublished":"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00","dateModified":"2020-08-31T13:39:53+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/new-journal-article-betting-markets-for-english-premier-league-results-and-scorelines-evaluating-a-forecasting-model\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"New Journal Article: “Betting markets for English Premier League results and scorelines: evaluating a forecasting model”"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#website","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/","name":"Football Research","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#organization","name":"University of Reading","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/ReadingHenleylogo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/125\/Unorganized\/ReadingHenleylogo.jpg","width":267,"height":82,"caption":"University of Reading"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/66845389e5077a61c8bb07ce163eaff2","name":"Carl Singleton","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/c220272c0d57772f8a3d2be2dfeedbbe","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a2c4193c1d32c734a7123de8bbba152dcfbbaf89d69d27dcf507fe9c5798f7b4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a2c4193c1d32c734a7123de8bbba152dcfbbaf89d69d27dcf507fe9c5798f7b4?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Carl Singleton"},"url":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/author\/c-a-singletonreading-ac-uk\/"}]}},"cc_featured_image_caption":{"caption_text":false,"source_text":false,"source_url":false},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/206"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":676,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664\/revisions\/676"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/football-research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}