Invited Speakers and All Speakers’ Abstracts

INVITED SPEAKERS:

Dr Renee Hoekzema is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford. Her research spans fundamental problems in topology such as describing manifold invariants, and applications of topology to biomedicine, palaeontology, and physics.

Renee grew up in the Netherlands where she obtained a double MSc degree in mathematics and theoretical physics from Utrecht University. She also completed a minor degree in palaeobiology and continued to do two subsequent DPhil’s at the University of Oxford, one in palaeontology and one in algebraic topology. After this varied education she continued as a postdoctoral researcher in mathematics at the University of Copenhagen and the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in Bonn, before returning to Oxford as a postdoctoral research associate studying both topology and its applications to bioscience. She holds a Veni Fellowship in the Netherlands combining mathematics and its applications.

Dr Hua Lu is a research scientist in the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). She researches atmospheric dynamics, temperature trends and extreme weather in the Antarctic, and solar influences on atmospheric circulation. She is currently working on a NERC-funded multi-centre project: North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS) to investigate influence of the upper atmosphere on changes that occur across the North Atlantic and examine how those changes may affect the UK’s climate and weather.

Hua comes from a mathematical background and has applied/developed a range of mathematical tools to tackle a wide variety of environmental problems. She was awarded her PhD in 2000 from the University of New South Wales, Australia where she constructed mathematical models to study wind erosion and dust transfer. She then joined the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Canberra to study catchment-scale soil erosion using digital elevation models, land-surface data, and remote sensing of vegetation. Before join BAS in 2005, she was a visiting fellow of Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge where she applied her mathematical skills to model sediment transport.

Céline Maistret works in Number Theory, mainly studying the arithmetic of abelian varieties, with interest toward computations related to the parity conjecture and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture. She received her PhD from the University of Warwick in 2017 and was a research associate at the University of Bristol before joining Boston University as a postdoctoral faculty fellow. Since January 2021, she is a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow at the University of Bristol.

Almut Veraart is Professor of Statistics at Imperial College London, where she is also leading the Quantitative Sciences Research Institute. Her research focuses on developing statistical tools for a wide range of stochastic processes and (spatio-temporal) random fields and on tackling applications in finance, energy systems and environmental sciences. She grew up in Germany and obtained a “Diplom” in Mathematics and Economics and a “Diplom” in Mathematics from the University of Ulm. She also holds an MSc in Applied Statistics and a DPhil in Statistics from the University of Oxford where here studies were supported by a Rhodes Scholarship. She worked as a postdoctoral researcher and later assistant professor at the Centre for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (CREATES) at Aarhus University in Denmark, before being appointed at the Department of Mathematics at Imperial in 2011. She held visiting research fellowships at Aarhus University, the University of Oslo, the Wolfgang Pauli Institute in Vienna and at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences in Cambridge. Her research has been supported by the European Commission, by the Lloyds Register Foundation – Turing Programme on Data Centric Engineering and by EDF.

ABSTRACTS

Invited Talk: Almut Veraart, Professor of Statistics, Imperial College London

Title: A short introduction to Ambit Stochastics

Abstract: In this talk I am going to describe my journey into academia and give a short, non-technical introduction to the area of Ambit Stochastics.
The term Ambit Stochastics indicates a broad field of mathematical research with applications in a wide range of subject areas belonging to natural science, economics, and biology/medicine. Key examples of applications are to the modelling of turbulent flows, the modelling of financial energy markets and the modelling of biological growth. Ambit Stochastics deals with the study of random objects whose properties depend on time and spatial position (or any other type of variables). The variability in space and time is controlled through specific regions in space and time, the so-called ambit sets, and encompasses additional basic stochastic variation, the so-called intermittency/volatility. This approach is very general and comprises the basic idea of a causality cone in the past that is fundamental in physics. Accordingly, Ambit Stochastics has the potential to be applied in many fields of sciences where the variability at a certain point can be partly traced back to what happened in a region associated to this point. The initialising example for the application of Ambit Stochastics to real phenomena is turbulence. Over the past few years, a unifying modelling framework has been developed that is able to capture the main stylised features of turbulent flows. The mathematical research in this direction has matured to a stage where more extensive data acquisition, analysis and comparison is called for. This constitutes an exciting interplay between theory and experiment, typical for the development of the whole field of Ambit Stochastics.

Invited Talk: Céline Maistret, Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellow, School of Maths, University of Bristol

Title: Elliptic curves and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

Abstract: Number theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with studying numbers and solving equations. This talk will address the latter by introducing a particular set of equations which define objects called elliptic curves. Solving these equations has proven extremely difficult due to their complex mathematical structure. The quest for their solutions started over a century ago and reached a milestone in the 1960’s when Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer proposed a formula to find all their solutions. In this talk, I will present the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture and explain how it allows to find all solutions. 

Invited Talk: Hua Lu, Research Scientist (Atmosphere Ice and Climate), British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge

Title: How Maths Helped One to Become a Polar Researcher

Abstract: In this talk, I shall take you with me to go through my journey from a mathematician to a polar researcher. I will share with you the fun and cool moments being a research mathematician who uses equations, data, and statistics to tackle real world problems. I shall explain how maths has helped me to overcome challenges of having to move from one research field to another. I shall give you examples of why maths has formed the corner stone of my multi-disciplinary research. Because the environment topics that we face now-a-days so complex, dispersed and infused into various other disciplinary courses, I shall use my own experiences to demonstrate the value of working with people from different background and with different research expertise to ensure successful collaboration and project delivery.

Invited Talk: Renee Hoekzema, Postdoctoral Researcher, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford

Title: Cutting and pasting in the 21^st century

Abstract: Scissor’s congruence is a classical setup in mathematics that featured in one of Hilbert’s problems in 1900. It asks whether two polytopes can be obtained from one another through a process of cutting and pasting. In the 1970s this question was posed instead for smooth manifolds: which manifolds A and B can be related to one another by cutting A into pieces and gluing them back together to get B? Manifold cut-and-paste invariants describe when this is possible. In this talk I introduce this these ideas and describe recent work that ‘upgrades’ cut-and-paste invariants to spaces using the machinery from algebraic K-theory. This is joint work with Mona Merling, Laura Murray, Carmen Rovi and Julia Semikina.

EARLY CAREER SPEAKERS’ ABSTRACTS

Swinda Falkena, University of Reading: A Bayesian Approach to Regime Assignment

Clustering methods are widely used to separate datasets into subsets which are similar within, but different between the different subsets or clusters. For example, they can split a dataset of pictures of cats and dogs in one cluster with cat pictures and one with dog pictures. Assigning data to a cluster is not always as straightforward, and for some applications, e.g. those which are subject to noise, a probabilistic cluster assignment might be preferable over a hard one. In this talk I will discuss a Bayesian approach to cluster assignment, applied to atmospheric circulation regimes over the wintertime Euro-Atlantic sector.

Lea Oljaca, University of Exeter: Measure and Statistical Attractors for nonautonomous Dynamical Systems

Various inequivalent notions of attraction for autonomous dynamical systems have been proposed, each of them useful to understand specific aspects of attraction. Milnor’s notion of a \emph{measure} attractor considers invariant sets with positive measure basin of attraction, while Ilyashenko’s even weaker notion of a \emph{statistical} attractor considers a positive measure points that approach the invariant set in terms of averages. In this paper we propose generalisations of these notions to nonautonomous evolution processes in continuous time.

We demonstrate that weak pullback and forward measure and statistical attractors can be defined in an analogous manner and relate these to the respective notions when an autonomous system is considered as nonautonomous one. We prove that an autonomous statistical attractor is a pullback measure attractor when considered as a nonautonomies set.

Finally, for the particular case of an asymptotically autonomous system (where there are autonomous future and past limit systems) we relate pullback (respectively forward) attractors the past (resp. future) limit systems.

Farhana Pramy, The Open University: Properties of the Eigenfunctions of the SFS Operator with \alpha=0

I have been working on the Stretch-Fold-Shear (SFS) operator S_\alpha which is a functional linear operator acting on complex-valued functions of a real variable x on some domain containing [-1,\ 1] in \mathbb{R}. It arises from a stylized model in kinematic dynamo theory. When the shear parameter \alpha is zero, the spectrum of S_\alpha can be determined exactly. Using generating function methods, properties of the eigenfunctions of S_\alpha can be obtained in the case \alpha=0. These eigenfunctions are related to the Bernoulli polynomials and have similar properties. In the talk, I shall show how the generating function gives the eigenfunctions, show how they are related to the classical Bernoulli polynomials and give some of the properties of the eigenfunctions.

Silvia Rognone, Queen Mary University of London: Characterisation of structures emerging from Random Colouring Processes on a Spatial Graph.

Abstract: The use of labels to represent physical quantities on graphs is tied up with the need to understand and quantify the presence of heterogeneity in the distribution of the variable of interest. In the case of spatial graphs, the presence of spatial constraints could lead to the emergence of structures when a specific colouring process is implemented. In this work, we characterise and explore spatial structures, i.e. clusters of single colour, that emerged from a simple random colouring process P on a 2D lattice. We provide a dynamical random growth model to reproduce the same ensemble of P and we measure some structural quantities of these spatial motifs, making a comparison with a well-known growth model, the EGM, used as control. Then, we show that the only measure of the exit time, i.e. the time a random walk needs to jump out from a cluster, can capture the same structural information, proposing the exit time as a possible tool for the characterisation of these structures. The study of such motifs is crucial to assign a statistical significance to the measured quantities when a colouring process is implemented on spatial graphs.

Erin Russell, University of Bristol: Playing with Fire: The Necessary Evil of Self-organized Criticality

Consider a mean field Erdős-Rényi random digraph process on n vertices. Let each possible directed edge arrive with rate 1/2n. Without opposition, this process is guaranteed to result in the n-complete graph. Hence we introduce a Poisson rain of “lightning strikes” to each vertex with rate λ(n) which propagates across its out-graph, burning all edges of an affected vertex. Subsequently, the system continues to fluctuate to no end in a battle between

creation and destruction.

EARLY CAREER POSTER ABSTRACTS:

Ruth Chapman, University of Exeter: Stochastic data adapted Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation box models

The Atlantic Meridional overturning Circulation is responsible for the comparatively temperate climate found in western Europe, and it’s previous collapse thought to have triggered glacial periods seen in the paleo data. This is a system that has multiple stable states- referred to as ‘on’ when the circulation is strong as in the current climate, and ‘off’ when it is much weaker. The AMOC has tipping points between these states. Tipping points occur when a rapid shift in dynamics happens in response to a relatively small change in a parameter. Making future projections of AMOC response to the climate is essential for avoiding any anthropogenic caused tipping, but it is computationally expensive to calculate the full hysteresis for different scenarios. This work looks at a conceptual box model of the AMOC which is easy to understand and cheap to implement. Previous work has considered bifurcation and rate-dependent tipping. This current work looks to estimate a realistic amount of noise from various GCM data sets and apply this to the model. This allows noise tipping to be studied, alongside a wide variety of different hosing functions to force the model. Ongoing works is looking to calibrate the model to further GCMs, and estimate escape times and transition rates between the stable states.

Lily Greig, University of Reading: Comparison of a simplified ERSEM to a full complexity model for the North-West European Shelf

During this 8-week summer project model complexity of the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) was investigated by assessing the performance of a simplified version of ERSEM coupled to Met Office operational models of the North West European Shelf. Various model validation techniques were explored including target diagrams, difference plots and EOFs. It was found that the simplified model performs well overall, but that performance varies strongly according to geographical region.

Yu Kuang, non-affiliated: The Hermitian-Galois Module Structure of the Square Root

About thirty years ago, Erez initiated the study of the Hermitian-Galois module structure of the square root of the inverse different of finite Galois extensions of number fields. More recently, Bley, Burns and Hahn used relative algebraic K-theory methods to formulate a precise conjectural link between the (second Adams-operator twisted) Galois-Gauss sums of weakly ramified Artin characters and the square root of the inverse different of finite, odd degree, Galois extensions of number fields. We provide concrete new evidence for this conjecture in the setting of extensions of odd prime-power degree by using a refined version of a well-known result of Ullom.

Evelyn Lira-Torres, Queen Mary University of London: Quantum Gravity and Riemannian Geometry of the Fuzzy Sphere

We study the quantum gravity and Riemannian geometry of the fuzzy sphere defined as the angular momentum algebra [x_i , x_ j] = 2ı_{λp}\epsilon_{i jk} x_k modulo setting \Sigma _i x^2_i to a constant, using a recently introduced 3D rotationally invariant differential structure. Metrics are given

by symmetric 3 × 3 matrices g and we show that for each metric there is a unique quantum Levi-Civita connection with constant coefficients, with scalar curvature. Later, We construct a Connes spectral triple or ‘Dirac operator’ on the non-reduced fuzzy sphere C_λ[S^2] as realised using quantum Riemannian geometry with a central quantum metric g of Euclidean signature and its associated quantum Levi-Civita connection discused before. The Dirac operator is characterised uniquely up to unitary equivalence within our quantum Riemannian geometric setting and an assumption that the spinor bundle is

trivial and rank 2 with a central basis.

Marica Minucci, Queen Mary University of London: The Maxwell-Scalar Field System Near Spatial Infinity

We make use of Friedrich’s representation of spatial infinity to study asymptotic expansions of the Maxwell-scalar field system near spatial infinity. The main objective of this analysis is to understand the effects of the non-linearities of this system on the regularity of solutions and polyhomogeneous expansions at null infinity and, in particular, at the critical sets where null infinity touches spatial infinity. The main outcome from our analysis is that the nonlinear interaction makes both fields more singular than what is seen when the fields are non-interacting. In particular, we find a whole new class of logarithmic terms in the asymptotic expansions which depend on the coupling constant between the Maxwell and scalar fields.

Cathie Wells, University of Reading: Re-routing Transatlantic Flights to reduce CO2 Emissions

With full satellite coverage of transatlantic flight routes now a reality, situational awareness is no longer a limiting factor in planning trajectories. This extra freedom allows us to consider moving from the current Organised Track System to Trajectory Based Operations, in order to limit fuel use and thus reduce emissions. Here we first compare time minimal trajectories with the Organised Track System. Then we look at the importance of airspeed in modelling fixed-time, fuel minimal flights.

In each case we apply different approaches to Optimal Control Theory.

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Number of items: 174.

Article

Douville, H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A. and Fisher, R. A. (2024) Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects. Science of the Total Environment, 950. 175299. ISSN 1879-1026 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299

Rodell, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0106-7437, Barnoud, A., Robertson, F. R., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bellas-Manley, A., Bosilovich, M. G., Chambers, D., Landerer, F., Loomis, B., Nerem, R. S., O’Neill, M. M., Wiese, D. and Seneviratne, S. I. (2024) An abrupt decline in global terrestrial water storage and its relationship with sea level change. Surveys in Geophysics. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09860-w

Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613 and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) A machine learning framework to evaluate vegetation modeling in Earth system models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16 (7). e2023MS004097. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004097

Loeb, N. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2538-9644, Ham, S.-H., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Thorsen, T. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4405-3572, Meyssignac, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6325-9843, Kato, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7597-0886, Johnson, G. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8023-4020 and Lyman, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7200-4663 (2024) Observational assessment of changes in Earth's energy imbalance since 2000. Surveys in Geophysics. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8

Allan, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2069-0315 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) Odden ice melt linked to Labrador Sea ice expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129 (4). e2023JC019988. ISSN 2169-9291 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019988

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2024) Droughts are blowing in the wind. Nature Water, 2 (3). pp. 223-224. ISSN 2731-6084 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00209-6

Trancoso, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9697-7005, Syktus, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1782-3073, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Croke, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1707-0377, Hoegh-Guldberg, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7510-6713 and Chadwick, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6767-5414 (2024) Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. Nature Communications, 15 (1). 483. ISSN 2041-1723 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Douville, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6074-6467 (2024) An even drier future for the arid lands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (2). e2320840121. ISSN 0027-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2320840121

de Mora, L., Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Blackford, J. C., Kelley, D. I., Harris, P., Jones, C. D., Jones, C. G., Liddicoat, S., Parker, R. J., Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Walton, J. and Yool, A. (2023) Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels. Earth System Dynamics, 14 (6). pp. 1295-1315. ISSN 2190-4987 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023

Arias, P. A., Rendón, M. L., Martínez, J. A. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Changes in atmospheric moisture transport over tropical South America: an analysis under a climate change scenario. Climate Dynamics, 61 (11-12). pp. 4949-4969. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06833-4

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Craig, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) An assessment of CMIP6 climate signals and biases in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture over Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (12). pp. 5698-5719. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8169

Song, S.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1158, Yeh, S.-W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4549-1686, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Xie, S.-P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3676-1325, An, S.-I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429X and Park, H.-S. (2023) Climate sensitivity controls global precipitation hysteresis in a changing CO2 pathway. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6. 156. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00484-2

Palmer, P. I., Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Dong, B., Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Wheeler, K. G., Gedney, N., Hickman, J. E., Madani, N., Folwell, S. S., Abdo, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Black, E. C. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Feng, L., Gudoshava, M., Haines, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374, Huntingford, C., Kilavi, M., Lunt, M. F., Shaaban, A. and Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4. pp. 254-270. ISSN 2662-138X doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36

Douville, H., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1726-6000, Betts, R. A., Caretta, M. A., Cherchi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0178-9264, Mukherji, A., Raghavan, K. and Renwick, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9141-2486 (2022) Water remains a blind spot in climate change policies. PLOS Water, 1 (12). e0000058. ISSN 2767-3219 doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pwat.0000058

Liu, C., Yang, Y., Liao, X., Cao, N., Liu, J., Ou, N., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Jin, L., Chen, N. and Zheng, R. (2022) Discrepancies in simulated ocean net surface heat fluxes over the North Atlantic. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39 (11). pp. 1941-1955. ISSN 0256-1530 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1360-7

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Willett, K. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-0076, John, V. O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3280-978X and Trent, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9215-5808 (2022) Global changes in water vapor 1979‐2020. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (12). e2022JD036728. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036728

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2022) Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (12). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097231

Mahmoud, S. H., Gan, T. Y., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Li, J. and Funk, C. (2022) Worsening drought of Nile basin under shift in atmospheric circulation, stronger ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole. Scientific Reports, 12. 8049. ISSN 2045-2322 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12008-8

Craig, P. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9213-4599 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2022) The role of teleconnection patterns in the variability and trends of growing season indices across Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 42 (2). pp. 1072-1091. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7290

Swaminathan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673, Parker, R. J., Jones, C. G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Quaife, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6896-4613, Kelley, D. I., de Mora, L. and Walton, J. (2022) The physical climate at global warming thresholds as seen in the UK Earth system model. Journal of Climate, 35 (1). pp. 29-48. ISSN 0894-8755 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0234.1

Osso, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5653-4886, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Shaffrey, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X and Maraun, D. (2022) Emerging new climate extremes over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 58. pp. 487-501. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05917-3

Andrews, T., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Gregory, J. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644, Dong, Y., Armour, K. C., Paynter, D., Lin, P., Modak, A., Mauritsen, T., Cole, J. N. S., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., Douville, H., Roehrig, R., Koshiro, T., Kawai, H., Ogura, T., Dufresne, J.-L., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liu, C. (2022) On the effect of historical SST patterns on radiative feedback. Journal of Geophysical Research, 127 (18). e2022JD036675. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675

Peña‐Angulo, D., Vicente‐Serrano, S. M., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Lorenzo‐Lacruz, J., Murphy, C., Hannaford, J., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Tramblay, Y., Reig‐Gracia, F. and El Kenawy, A. (2022) The complex and spatially diverse patterns of hydrological droughts across Europe. Water Resources Research, 58 (4). e2022WR031976. ISSN 0043-1397 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR031976

Yeh, S.-W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4549-1686, Song, S.-Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-1158, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, An, S.-I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-429X and Shin, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3199-7646 (2021) Contrasting response of hydrological cycle over land and ocean to a changing CO2 pathway. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4 (1). 53. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00206-6

Wainwright, C. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7311-7846, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22 (9). pp. 2339-2357. ISSN 1525-7541 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0017.1

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Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Liu, C., Zahn, M., Lavers, D. A., Koukouvagias, E. and Bodas-Salcedo, A. (2014) Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations. Surveys in Geophysics, 35 (3). pp. 533-552. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z

Skliris, N., Marsh, R., Josey, S. A., Good, S. A., Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2014) Salinity changes in the world ocean since 1950 in relation to changing surface freshwater fluxes. Climate Dynamics, 43 (3-4). pp. 709-736. ISSN 0930-7575 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2131-7

Field, P. R., Cotton, R. J., McBeath, K., Lock, A. P., Webster, S. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2014) Improving a convection-permitting model simulation of a cold air outbreak. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 124-138. ISSN 00359009 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2116

Liu, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Brooks, M. and Milton, S. (2014) Comparing tropical precipitation simulated by the Met Office NWP and climate models with satellite observations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53 (1). pp. 200-214. ISSN 1558-8424 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-082.1

Pearson, K. J., Lister, G. M. S., Birch, C. E., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157 and Woolnough, S. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0500-8514 (2014) Modelling the diurnal cycle of tropical convection across the "Grey Zone". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (679). pp. 491-499. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2145

Maidment, R. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Tarnavsky, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3403-0411, Stringer, M., Hewison, T., Roebeling, R. and Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186 (2014) The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119 (18). pp. 10619-10644. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021927

Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Grimes, D. I. F., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Greatrex, H., Rojas, O. and Leo, O. (2013) Evaluation of satellite-based and model re-analysis rainfall estimates for Uganda. Meteorological Applications, 20 (3). pp. 308-317. ISSN 1469-8080 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1283

Zahn, M. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Climate warming–related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle. Journal of Climate, 26 (2). pp. 562-574. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00222.1

John, V. O., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bell, W., Buehler, S. A. and Kottayil, A. (2013) Assessment of intercalibration methods for satellite microwave humidity sounders. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (10). pp. 4906-4918. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50358

Lavers, D. A., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Villarini, G., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2013) Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010

Polson, D., Hegerl, G. C., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Balan Sarojini, B. (2013) Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions? Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (17). pp. 4783-4787. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50923

Liu, C. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2013) Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850–2100. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (3). 034002. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002

Williams, C.J.R., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Kniveton, D.R. (2012) Diagnosing atmosphere–land feedbacks in CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4). 044003. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044003

Lavers, D. A., Villarini, G., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Wood, E. F. and Wade, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2012) The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, 117 (D20). ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018027

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) Regime dependent changes in global precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 39 (3-4). pp. 827-840. ISSN 1432-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1134-x

Liu, C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Huffman, G. J. (2012) Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations. Geophysical Research Letters, 39. L13803. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052093

O’Gorman, P. A., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Byrne, M. P. and Previdi, M. (2012) Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change. Surveys in Geophysics, 33 (3-4). pp. 585-608. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9159-6

Liu, C. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117. D03101. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016568

Loeb, N. G., Lyman, J. M., Johnson, G. C., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Doelling, D. R., Wong, T., Soden, B. J. and Stephens, G. L. (2012) Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nature Geoscience, 15. pp. 110-113. ISSN 1752-0894 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1375

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2012) The role of water vapour in Earth’s energy flows. Surveys in Geophysics, 33 (3-4). pp. 557-564. ISSN 1573-0956 doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-011-9157-8 (special issue: Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows)

Zahn, M. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Changes in water vapor transports of the ascending branch of the tropical circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D18111. ISSN 2156–2202 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016206

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Combining satellite data and models to estimate cloud radiative effect at the surface and in the atmosphere. Meteorological Applications, 18 (3). pp. 324-333. ISSN 1469-8080 (special issue: 'Sensing the weather')

John, V.O., Holl, G., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S.A., Parker, D.E. and Soden, B.J. (2011) Clear-sky biases in satellite infrared estimates of upper tropospheric humidity and its trends. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116. D14108. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015355

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Woodage, M. J., Milton, S. F., Brooks, M. E. and Haywood, J. M. (2011) Examination of long-wave radiative bias in general circulation models over North Africa during May–July. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (658). pp. 1179-1192. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.717

Haywood, J. M., Johnson, B. T., Osborne, S. R., Baran, A. J., Brooks, M., Milton, S. F., Mulcahy, J., Walters, D., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Klaver, A., Formenti, P., Brindley, H. E., Christopher, S. and Gupta, P. (2011) Motivation, rationale and key results from the GERBILS Saharan dust measurement campaign. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (658). pp. 1106-1116. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.797

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Zveryaev, I.I. (2011) Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007. International Journal of Climatology, 31 (3). pp. 337-348. ISSN 0899-8418 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2070

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2011) Human influence on rainfall. Nature, 470 (7334). pp. 344-345. ISSN 0028-0836 doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/470344a

Lavers, D., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Wood, E. F., Villarini, G., Brayshaw, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Wade, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5296-8350 (2011) Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (23). L23803. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049783

Pearson, K. J., Hogan, R. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Lister, G. M. S. and Holloway, C.E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-8989 (2010) Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. A20206. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014265

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liepert, B. G. (2010) Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025201. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025201

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Soden, B. J., John, V. O., Ingram, W. and Good, P. (2010) Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 025205. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205

Zveryaev, I. I. and Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2010) Summertime precipitation variability over europe and its links to atmospheric dynamics and evaporation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115. D12102. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011213

Haywood, J. M., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bornemann, J., Forster, P. M., Francis, P. N., Milton, S., Radel, G., Rap, A., Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978 and Thorpe, R. (2009) A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114 (D24). D24201. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012650

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2009) Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations. Journal of Climate, 22 (11). 3127 -3145 . ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2616.1

John, V.O., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Soden, B.J. (2009) How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming? Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L14702 . ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038276

Pearson, K. J., Hogan, R.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3180-5157, Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Lister, G. M. S. (2009) How well do high resolution models reproduce tropical convection? Proceedings of the 2009 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, P.55. S8, 44. ISSN 1011-3932

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and John, V.O. (2009) Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and climate models. Proceedings of the 2009 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, P.55. S6, 37. ISSN 1011-3932

Barber, C.R., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Ringer, M. (2009) Observations of changes in marine boundary layer clouds. Proceedings of the 2009 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, P.55. S6, 25. ISSN 1011-3932

Haywood, J. M., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bornemann, J., Forster, P. M., Francis, P. N., Milton, S., Radel, G., Rap, A., Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978 and Thorpe, R. (2009) A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114 (D24). D24201. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012650

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Soden, B.J. (2008) Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes. Science, 321 (5895). pp. 1481-1484. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787

Zveryaev, I.I., Wibig, J. and Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2008) Contrasting interannual variability of atmospheric moisture over Europe during cold and warm seasons. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (1). pp. 32-41. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00283.x

Milton, S. F., Greed, G., Brooks, M. E., Haywood, J., Johnson, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A. and Grey, W. M. F. (2008) Modeled and observed atmospheric radiation balance during the West African dry season: role of mineral dust, biomass burning aerosol, and surface albedo. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (D20). D00C02. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009741

Slingo, A., Bharmal, N.A., Robinson, G.J., Settle, J.J., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, White, H.E., Lamb, P.J., Lele, M. I., Turner, D.D., MacFarlane, S., Kassianov, E., Barnard, J., Flynn, C. and Miller, M. (2008) Overview of observations from the RADAGAST experiment in Niamey, Niger: Meteorology and thermodynamic variables. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113 (D20). D00E01. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009909

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Soden, B. J. (2007) Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 34. L18705. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031460

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2007) Monitoring present day changes in water vapour and the radiative energy balance using satellite data, reanalyses and models. Joint 2007 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference and the 15th Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography Conference of the American Meteorological Society, P.50. ISSN 1011-3932

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2007) Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 59A (3). pp. 336-343. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00229.x

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A., Milton, S. F. and Brooks, M. E. (2007) Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (629). pp. 1993-2010. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.166

Comer, R. E., Slingo, A. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2007) Observations of the diurnal cycle of outgoing longwave radiation from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (2). L02823. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028229

Bony, S., Colman, R., Kattsov, V.M., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Bretherton, C.S., Hall, A., Hallegatte, S., Holland, M.M., Ingram, W., Randall, D.A., Soden, B.J., Tselioudis, G. and Webb, M.J. (2006) How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes? Journal of Climate, 19 (15). pp. 3445-3482. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3819.1

Slingo, A., Ackerman, T.P., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Kassianov, E.I., McFarlane, S.A., Robinson, G.J., Barnard, J.C., Miller, M.A., Harries, J.E., Russell, J.E. and Dewitte, S. (2006) Observations of the impact of a major Saharan dust storm on the Earth's radiation balance. Geophysical Research Letters, 33. L24817. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027869

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2006) Variability in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111. D22105. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007304

Zveryaev, I.I. and Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2005) Water vapor variability in the tropics and its links to dynamics and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (D21). D21112. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006033

Uppala, S.M., KÅllberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Berg, L. V. D., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P. and Woollen, J. (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131 (612). pp. 2961-3012. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A., Milton, S.F. and Culverwell, I. (2005) Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (D14). D14111. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005698

Harries, J. E., Russell, J. E., Hanafin, J. A., Brindley, H., Futyan, J., Rufus, J., Kellock, S., Matthews, G., Wrigley, R., Last, A., Mueller, J., Mossavati, R., Ashmall, J., Sawyer, E., Parker, D., Caldwell, M., Allan, P. M., Smith, A., Bates, M. J., Coan, B., Stewart, B. C., Lepine, D. R., Cornwall, L. A., Corney, D. R., Ricketts, M. J., Drummond, D., Smart, D., Cutler, R., Dewitte, S., Clerbaux, N., Gonzalez, L., Ipe, A., Bertrand, C., Joukoff, A., Crommelynck, D., Nelms, N., Llewellyn-Jones, D. T., Butcher, G., Smith, G. L., Szewczyk, Z. P., Mlynczak, P. E., Slingo, A., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Ringer, M. A. (2005) The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86 (7). pp. 945-960. ISSN 1520-0477 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-7-945

Haywood, J.M., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Culverwell, I., Slingo, A., Milton, S.F., Edwards, J.M. and Clerbaux, N. (2005) Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Sahara during July 2003? Journal of Geophysical Research, 110 (D5). D05105. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005232

Ringer, M.A. and Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2004) Evaluating climate model simulations of tropical cloud. Tellus, 56A. pp. 308-327.

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ringer, M.A., Pamment, J.A. and Slingo, A. (2004) Simulation of the Earth's radiation budget by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40). Journal of Geophysical Research, 109 (D18). D18107. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004816

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ringer, M.A. and Slingo, A. (2003) Evaluation of moisture in the Hadley Centre Climate Model using simulations of HIRS water vapour channel radiances,. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129. p. 595. ISSN 1477-870X

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Ringer, M.A. (2003) Inconsistencies between satellite estimates of longwave cloud forcing and dynamical fields from reanalyses. Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (9). 1491. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017019

Brindley, H. and Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2003) Simulations of the effects of inter-annual and decadal variability on the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation spectrum. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129. pp. 2971-2988. ISSN 1477-870X

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Ramaswamy, V. and Slingo, A. (2002) Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107 (D17). 4329. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001131

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A. and Ramaswamy, V. (2002) Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis over the tropical oceans. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107 (D15). 4230. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD001132

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Slingo, A. (2002) Can current climate model forcings explain the spatial and temporal signatures of decadal OLR variations? Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (7). 1141. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014620

Trenberth, K. E., Wielicki, B. A., Del Genio, A. D., Wong, T., Chen, J., Carlson, B. E., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Robertson, F., Jacobowitz, H., Slingo, A., Randall, D. A., Kiehl, J. T., Soden, B. J., Gordon, C. T., Miller, A. J., Yang, S.-K. and Susskind, J. (2002) Changes in tropical clouds and radiation. Science, 296 (5576). 2095a. ISSN 1095-9203 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.296.5576.2095a

Wielicki, B. A., Wong, T., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A., Kiehl, J. T., Soden, B. J., Gordon, C. T., Miller, A. J., Yang, S.-K., Randall, D. A., Robertson, F., Susskind, J. and Jacobowitz, H. (2002) Evidence for large decadal variability in the tropical mean radiative energy budget. Science, 295 (5556). pp. 841-844. ISSN 0036-8075 doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065837

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A. and Ringer, M. A. (2002) Influence of dynamics on the changes in tropical cloud radiative forcing during the 1998 El Niño. Journal of Climate, 15 (14). pp. 1979-1986. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1979:IODOTC>2.0.CO;2

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2000) Evaluation of simulated clear-sky longwave radiation using ground-based observations. Journal of Climate, 13. pp. 1951-1964. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1951:EOSCSL>2.0.CO;2

Slingo, A., Pamment, J. A., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Wilson, P. S. (2000) Water vapor feedbacks in the ECMWF reanalyses and Hadley Centre climate model. Journal of Climate, 13 (17). pp. 3080-3098. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3080:WVFITE>2.0.CO;2

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Shine, K. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2672-9978, Slingo, A. and Pamment, J. A. (1999) The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125 Part B. pp. 2103-2126. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712555809

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Slingo, A. (1998) Simulated long-wave clear-sky irradiance over the ocean: spatial and temporal variability 1979-1993. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 23 (5-6). pp. 599-604. ISSN 1474-7065 doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-1946(98)00080-9

Book or Report Section

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. -S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2024) Upper tropospheric humidity [in “State of the Climate in 2023”]. In: Blunden, J. and Boyer, T. (eds.) State of the Climate in 2023. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (8). American Meteorological Society, S59-S60. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2024BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) How and why Earth's climate is changing. In: Weather - A force of nature: Spectacular images from weather photographer of the year. Natural History Museum, London, England, pp. 6-7, pp. 192. ISBN 9780565095253

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559 and Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850 (2021) IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-2. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2021) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate in 2020"]. In: State of the climate in 2020. American Meteorological Society, S55-S56. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0098.1

Gulev, S. K., Thorne, P. W., Ahn, J., Dentener, F. J., Domingues, C. M., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D. S., Nnamchi, H. C., Quaas, J., Rivera, J. A., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S. L., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., Vose, R. S., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Collins, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Turner, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876 and Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 (2021) Changing state of the climate system. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 287-422. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2109-9559, Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Rao, K. A., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7419-0850, Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Niang, A. D., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677, Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X. and Zickfeld., K. (2021) Technical summary. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group. Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 33-144. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002

Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Arias, P. A., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T. Y., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Mba, W. P., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J. and Zolina, O. (2021) Water cycle changes. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonno, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R. and Zhou, B. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to 45 the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1055-1210. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.010

Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., Zhou, B. and Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2021) Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S. L. and Connors, C. (eds.) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 1513-1766. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2020) Upper tropospheric humidity. In: Blunden, J. and Arndt, D. S. (eds.) State of the Climate in 2019. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101 (8). American Meteorological Society, S45-S46. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2019) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate 2018"]. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100 (9). American Meteorological Society, pp. 1625-1636. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2019BAMSStateoftheClimate.1

Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Liu, C. (2018) Overview of climate models and tropical extremes. In: Vuruputur, V., Sukhatme, J., Murtugudde, R. and Roca, R. (eds.) Tropical Extremes: Natural Variability and Trends. Elsevier, pp. 139-164. ISBN 9780128092484

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E.-S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J. (2018) Upper tropospheric humidity [in "State of the Climate in 2017"]. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (8). American Meteorological Society, S27-S28. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2018bamsstateoftheclimate.1

Report

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J., Blunden, J., Boyer, T. and Bartow-Gillies, E., eds. (2023) Upper tropospheric humidity. State of the Climate in 2022. 104 (9). Report. American Meteorological Society, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2023BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 (S55-S56)

John, V. O., Shi, L., Chung, E. S., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Buehler, S. A. and Soden, B. J., Blunden, J. and Boyer, T., eds. (2022) Upper Tropospheric Humidity. State of the Climate in 2021. 103 (8). Report. American Meteorological Society, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2022BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 (S54-S55)

Finney, D., Marsham, J., Rowell, D., Way, C., Evans, B., Cornforth, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4379-9556, Houghton-Carr, H., Mittal, N., Allan, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Anande, D., Anyah, R., Ascott, M., Black, E., Boorman, P., Booth, B., Bornemann, J., Burgin, L., Evans, J., Gudoshava, M., Kendon, E., Kisembe, J., Kondowe, A., Lapworth, D., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., Lwiza, K., Macdonald, D., Maidment, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2054-3259, Misiani, H., Nakabugo, R., Sabiiti, G., Sangalugembe, C., Scanell, C., Segele, Z., Semazzi, F., Smith, K. R., Tadege, A., Tesfaye, K., Waniha, P., Wainwright, C., Wilby, R., Winterbourn, B. and Xia, S., (2019) Scientific understanding of East African climate change from the HyCRISTAL project. Technical Report. White Rose Research Online doi: https://doi.org/10.5518/100/19

Harries, J.E., Slingo, A. , Russell, J.E. , Brindley, H.E. , Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Comer, R. E., (2006) Performance of and early scientific results from GERB. Paper submitted to the EUMETSAT Scientific and Technical Group - Science Working Group. UNSPECIFIED, Darmstadt.

Haywood, J.M., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Culverwell, I., Slingo, A., Milton, S. and Edwards, J., (2004) Can desert dust explain the anomalous greenhouse effect observed over the Sahara during July 2003 revealed by GERB/UM intercomparisons. MRF Technical Note. UNSPECIFIED

Conference or Workshop Item

Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A. , Milton, S.F. and Brooks, M.E. (2006) Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data from 2003-2006 in the evaluation of the Met Office global NWP model. In: Proceedings of the EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellites Conference, Helsinki, Finland, p48.

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2006) Using satellite observations and reanalyses to evaluate climate and weather forecast models. In: Current problems in atmospheric radiation, Proceedings of the International Radiation Symposium, Busan, South Korea, pp. 451-454.

Comer, R. E., Slingo, A. and Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2006) The diurnal cycle observed by Meteosat-8 and simulated by a climate model. In: EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellites Conference, Helsinki, Finland, pp. 48-53.

Russell, J.E., Harries, J.E., Hanafin, J., Brindley, H., Futyan, J.M., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A. and Ringer, M.A. (2004) The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) Experiment: Science and Applications. In: EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, Weimar, Germany.

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Slingo, A., Milton, S. and Culverwell, I. (2004) SINERGEE: simulation and exploitation of data from Meteosat-8 using an NWP model. In: EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, Prague, Czech Republic.

Russell, J.E., Futyan, J.M., Harries, J.E., Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 and Slingo, A. (2004) Strategies for determining clear-sky fluxes from GERB data. In: EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, Prague, Czech Republic.

Allan, R.P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447 (2004) Water vapour feedback observations and climate sensitivity. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 Workshop on Climate Sensitivity., Paris, France.

Book

Bengtsson, L., Koumoutsaris, S., Bonnet, R. -M., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Fröhlich, C., Heintzenberg, J., Ingmann, P., Kandel, R., Loeb, N. G., Soden, B. and Trenberth, K. E. (2012) Observing and Modeling Earth's Energy Flows. Space Sciences Series of ISSI, 41. Springer. ISBN 9789400743267

This list was generated on Wed Dec 4 12:08:36 2024 UTC.