{"id":471,"date":"2017-11-16T13:35:52","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T13:35:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/?p=471"},"modified":"2017-11-16T14:13:20","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T14:13:20","slug":"forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Long lead-time space-weather forecasts require accurate prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space. The current state-of-the-art involves coupled numerical models initialised using photospheric magnetic field observations. This deterministic approach means there is no estimate of forecast uncertainty. Large ensembles with perturbed boundary conditions aren\u2019t really feasible due to computational expense. \u00a0We have developed a method for producing a large ensemble of near-Earth solar wind conditions using the numerical model output with a simple 1-dimensional solar wind model (<a href=\"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/2017SW001679\/full\">http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/2017SW001679\/full<\/a>). This approach produces a probabilistic solar wind forecast which accurately captures the forecast uncertainty.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_472\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-472\" style=\"width: 602px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-472\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/anaeloge_ensemble.png\" alt=\"Observed (black) and forecast near-Earth solar wind speed for March 2005. The white line shows the ensemble median, while the red, pink and grey shaded regions show the 68%, 95% and 99.7% confidence intervals. Metrics show this approach provides a more useful forecast than a single deterministic forecast.\" width=\"602\" height=\"212\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/anaeloge_ensemble.png 602w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/anaeloge_ensemble-300x106.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-472\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Observed (black) and forecast near-Earth solar wind speed for March 2005. The white line shows the ensemble median, while the red, pink and grey shaded regions show the 68%, 95% and 99.7% confidence intervals. Metrics show this approach provides a more useful forecast than a single deterministic forecast.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long lead-time space-weather forecasts require accurate prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space. The current state-of-the-art involves coupled numerical models initialised using photospheric magnetic field observations. This deterministic approach means there is no estimate of forecast uncertainty. Large ensembles with perturbed boundary conditions aren\u2019t really feasible due to computational expense. \u00a0We have developed<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[18,19,14],"class_list":["post-471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-highlights","category-publication","tag-forecasting","tag-solar-wind","tag-space-weather"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions - SPATE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions - SPATE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Long lead-time space-weather forecasts require accurate prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space. The current state-of-the-art involves coupled numerical models initialised using photospheric magnetic field observations. This deterministic approach means there is no estimate of forecast uncertainty. Large ensembles with perturbed boundary conditions aren\u2019t really feasible due to computational expense. \u00a0We have developed\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SPATE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-11-16T13:35:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2017-11-16T14:13:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/10\/anaeloge_ensemble.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Luke Barnard\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Luke Barnard\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/\",\"name\":\"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions - SPATE\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2017-11-16T13:35:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-11-16T14:13:20+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/#\/schema\/person\/4184abb4303ee51c4f77183823487f39\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/\",\"name\":\"SPATE\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/#\/schema\/person\/4184abb4303ee51c4f77183823487f39\",\"name\":\"Luke Barnard\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/75fde5b9573941e7b81856ef68198e1fdb08905819acc23532b716bd8c643945?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/75fde5b9573941e7b81856ef68198e1fdb08905819acc23532b716bd8c643945?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Luke Barnard\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/author\/l-a-barnardreading-ac-uk\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions - SPATE","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/met-spate\/forecast-uncertainty-in-the-near-earth-solar-wind-conditions\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecast uncertainty in the near-Earth solar wind conditions - SPATE","og_description":"Long lead-time space-weather forecasts require accurate prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space. 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