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Department of Meteorology – University of Reading

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Dr. Caroline Wainwright

Postdoctoral Research Assistant

Please note, until 2019 I worked under the name of Caroline Dunning.

For more information on my research please see my personal website.

Research Interests:

  • East African Climate
  • West African Monsoon
  • Precipitation seasonality
  • Climate variability and change
  • User-relevant metrics

Research Projects:

  • HyCristal: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa
  • Mars Cocoa and Climate Change
  • GCRF African SWIFT: Science for Weather Information and Forecasting Techniques



Please note until the end of 2018 I published under the name of 'Caroline Dunning'.


Senior, C.A., Marsham, J.H., Berthou, S., Burgin, L., Folwell, S.S., Kendon, E.J., Klein, C.M., Jones, R.G., Mittal, N., Rowell, D.P., Tomassini, L., Vischel, T., Becker, B., Birch, C.E., Crook, J., Dougill, A.J., Finney, D.L., Graham, R.J., Hart, N.C.G., Jack, C.D., Jackson, L.S., James, R., Koelle, B., Misiani, H., Mwalukanga, B., Parker, D.J., Stratton, R.A., Taylor, C.M., Tucker, S.O., Wainwright, C.M., Washington, R., Willet, M.R. (2021) Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,

Taylor, J., Nicoll, M., Black, E., Wainwright, C.M., Jones, C., Tatayah, V., Vidale, P.L., and Norris, K. (2021) Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species, Climatic Change, 164, 41,

Wainwright, C.M., Marsham, J.H., Rowell, D.P., Finney, D.L., and Black, E. (2021) Future changes in seasonality in Eastern Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parametrised convection, Journal of Climate, 34, 4, 1367–1385,

Wainwright, C.M., Finney, D.L., Kilavi, M., Black, E., and Marsham, J.H. (2021) Extreme rainfall in East Africa October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change, Weather, 76, 26-31,


Black, E., Pinnington, E., Wainwright, C.M., Lahive, F., Quaife, T., Allan, R.P., Cook, P., Daymond, A., Hadley, P., McGuire, P.C., Verhoef, A. and Vidale, P.L. (2020) Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study, Environmental Research Letters, 16, 014009,

Monerie, P., Wainwright, C.M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A.A. (2020) Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations, Climate Dynamics, 55, 1385–1401,


Wainwright, C.M., Hirons, L.C., Klingaman, N.P., Allan, R.P., Black, E., and Turner, A.G. (2019) The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation, Climate Dynamics, 53, 7027–7044,

Wainwright, C.M., Marsham, J.H., Keane, R.J., Rowell, D.P., Finney, D.L. Black, E., and Allan, R.P. (2019) ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2, 34,


Dunning, C.M., Black, E. and Allan, R.P. (2018) Later Wet Seasons with More Intense Rainfall over Africa under Future Climate Change, Journal of Climate, 31, 9719–9738, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0102.1 | Press Release


Dunning, C.M., Allan, R.P. and Black, E. (2017) Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models, Environmental Research Letters, 12(11), 114001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e | Paper | Supplementary Information | Blog


Dunning, C.M., E Black, and R.P. Allan (2016) The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121 11,405-11,424, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025428 | Paper | Supplementary Information | Blog


Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G., & Brayshaw, D. J. (2015). The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters, 10(6), 064002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002.

Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M., & Spracklen, D. V. (2015). Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15(21), 12251-12266, doi:10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015.


Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G., & Chagnon, J. M. (2014). Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(8), 2979-2987, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059282.

Last update: 5th October 2020



Met 3L61 -



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