{"id":688,"date":"2020-01-21T13:36:36","date_gmt":"2020-01-21T13:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/palaeoclimate\/?p=688"},"modified":"2020-01-21T13:36:36","modified_gmt":"2020-01-21T13:36:36","slug":"brierley-et-al-large-scale-features-and-evaluation-of-the-pmip4-cmip6-midholocene-simulations-now-available-in-cop-discussions-by-sandy-p-harrison","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/palaeoclimate\/brierley-et-al-large-scale-features-and-evaluation-of-the-pmip4-cmip6-midholocene-simulations-now-available-in-cop-discussions-by-sandy-p-harrison\/","title":{"rendered":"Brierley et al. “Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations” now available in CoP Discussions by Sandy P. Harrison"},"content":{"rendered":"

There was a flurry of PMIP-related activity over the Christmas and New Year “holidays” because of the need to get papers describing experimental results that are going to be cited in the next Working Group 1 assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I’ve said it before (and I’ll say it again) that setting arbitrary deadlines to match demands for assessment reporting is not a great way of getting good science done. But I was reminded about Mary Beard’s blog comment working on days that “might in other circumstances be to devoted to jollity is, I am afraid, getting to be a habit”, so perhaps if the IPCC did not impose silly deadlines, the academics themselves would. Anyway, it’s good to see that the first of the PMIP4 pre-deadline papers is now out in discussion in Climate of the Past (https:\/\/www.clim-past-discuss.net\/cp-2019-168\/<\/a>). The paper describes the major features of the PMIP mid-Holocene simulations and briefly compares them with climate reconstructions. The good and the bad news? The PMIP4 simulations are really no different from the PMIP3 simulations: they get the same things right, and the same things wrong. It’s clear what’s bad about this: all that time and effort and we are still not closer to being able to predict large climate changes accurately at a regional scale even if the global-scale features (like land-sea contrast and polar amplification) are fine. But what’s so good about the situation? Well it does mean that we can consider the PMIP3 and PMIP4 simulations as a single ensemble, and think of all that lovely statistical power that gives us.<\/p>\n

For me, this is the killer figure. A comparison of the two ensembles with respect to different sets of variables, where the purple areas are places where there might be statistically significant differences between the two ensembles. Not a lot of places really and a quick calculation shows that this much difference is to be expected by chance!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Brierley, C. M., Zhao, A., Harrison, S. P., Braconnot, P., Williams, C. J. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Shi, X., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Ohgaito, R., Kaufman, D. S., Kageyama, M., Hargreaves, J. C., Erb, M. P., Emile-Geay, J., D’Agostino, R., Chandan, D., Carr\u00e9, M., Bartlein, P., Zheng, W., Zhang, Z., Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Volodin, E. M., Tomas, R. A., Routson, C., Peltier, W. R., Otto-Bliesner, B., Morozova, P. A., McKay, N. P., Lohmann, G., Legrande, A. N., Guo, C., Cao, J., Brady, E., Annan, J. D., and Abe-Ouchi, A.: Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene<\/i> simulations, Clim. Past Discuss., https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/cp-2019-168<\/a>, in review, 2020.<\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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