{"id":17501,"date":"2019-04-24T09:32:35","date_gmt":"2019-04-24T08:32:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=17501"},"modified":"2021-11-15T16:18:51","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T16:18:51","slug":"trumps-crackdown-on-irans-oil-exports-could-backfire-badly-with-serious-risks-to-global-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/04\/24\/trumps-crackdown-on-irans-oil-exports-could-backfire-badly-with-serious-risks-to-global-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s crackdown on Iran\u2019s oil exports could backfire badly \u2013 with serious risks to global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By blocking Iran&#8217;s oil exports the US could cause a spike in oil prices and tip the world economy into a downturn, writes Nafis Alam <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/trumps-crackdown-on-irans-oil-exports-could-backfire-badly-with-serious-risks-to-global-economy-115852\">for The Conversation<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17502\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/Unorganized\/oil-pump-jack-1407715_640.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/Unorganized\/oil-pump-jack-1407715_640.jpg 640w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/Unorganized\/oil-pump-jack-1407715_640-300x232.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->The US has unnerved the world oil market by ramping up the pressure in its long-running dispute with Iran. It has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-iran-oil\/u-s-to-announce-end-to-iran-sanctions-waivers-oil-prices-spike-idUSKCN1RX0R1?il=0\">announced<\/a>\u00a0that, after May 1, it won\u2019t renew the exemptions given to eight countries that enable them to buy Iranian oil. Those affected, which include China, India, Japan, Italy and South Korea, will face sanctions from Washington if they don\u2019t comply. The move will likely squeeze global oil supply at a time when it is already struggling from disruptions in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-venezuela-oil-exports-exclusive\/exclusive-venezuela-oil-exports-stable-in-march-despite-sanctions-blackouts-idUSKCN1RE24K\">Venezuela<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-04-07\/libya-fighting-erupts-again-here-s-the-oil-impact-quicktake\">Libya<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/Key-Nigerian-Oil-Export-Pipeline-Under-Force-Majeure-After-Fire-Breaks-Out.html\">Nigeria<\/a>. Indeed, the Brent crude price has already\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/\">risen<\/a>\u00a0on the back of the announcement to US$74 (\u00a357) per barrel, the highest since last November.<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-ends-waivers-for-countries-to-import-iranian-oil-11555937349\">has said<\/a>\u00a0he is confident that a supply crunch can be avoided thanks to extra output from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but traders and Asian petrochemical firms are sceptical that these countries will fully comply. In recent months, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have cut supply dramatically to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-04-01\/opec-output-slides-as-saudis-deepen-cut-venezuela-crisis-grows\">redress\u00a0<\/a>their fears that hefty US shale oil output and declining global energy demand could cause a supply glut that would batter prices.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">In December the oil cartel, along with Russia and other allies,\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\" href=\"http:\/\/www.tradearabia.com\/news\/OGN_348466.html\">agreed to<\/a><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">\u00a0reduce output by 1.2m barrels per day (bpd), cutting the\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6\">global total volume<\/a><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">\u00a0by more than 1%. They have since exceeded those benchmarks,<\/span><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">with Saudi Arabia alone reducing supply by 800,000 bpd in total. In March the kingdom\u00a0<\/span><a style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-04-01\/opec-output-slides-as-saudis-deepen-cut-venezuela-crisis-grows\">slashed production<\/a><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px\">\u00a0to a four-year low of 9.82m bpd, making up the majority of OPEC\u2019s reduction of 295,000 daily barrels for the month to 30.3m bpd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Oil politics<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Trump has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/03\/28\/trump-says-its-very-important-that-opec-increase-the-flow-of-oil-because-prices-are-too-high.html\">already been<\/a>\u00a0calling on OPEC to raise production, with little success. The Saudis may be close allies of the Americans, but they will only act in concert with their OPEC counterparts and many around the table will be wary of risking reducing prices at an unpredictable time for the global economy.<\/p>\n<p>No one ever forgets when the Saudis famously went against Western interests in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebalance.com\/opec-oil-embargo-causes-and-effects-of-the-crisis-3305806\">Arab Oil Embargo<\/a>\u00a0of 1973, in response to US policies with similarly global consequences: president Richard Nixon had scrapped the gold standard, heavily devaluing the US dollar, and then backed the Israelis in the Yom Kippur war against Egypt. Inflation-adjusted oil prices nearly doubled during the embargo from around US$26 per barrel in 1973 to over US$46 per barrel the following year, sending\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.opendemocracy.net\/en\/opendemocracyuk\/forty-years-on-effects-of-1973-74-oil-crisis-still-shape-british-foreign-po\/\">economic shockwaves<\/a>\u00a0around the world.<\/p>\n<p>America\u2019s latest move against Iran is making things worse for the global economy at a time when it has already been under pressure from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.goldrepublic.com\/news\/fed-paves-the-way-for-worldwide-loose-monetary-policy\">rising interest rates<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/04\/23\/anthony-gardner-on-us-eu-relations-trump-tariffs-on-europe.html\">trade wars<\/a>. If Iran\u2019s entire output were removed \u2013 a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/Middle-East\/Iran-shrugs-off-US-oil-threats-We-will-surpass-a-million-barrels-a-day-587655\">big if<\/a>\u00a0since it is far from certain that all countries will comply with the Americans \u2013 it\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/uk.reuters.com\/article\/uk-global-oil\/oil-near-2019-highs-after-u-s-ends-all-iran-sanction-exemptions-idUKKCN1RZ01S\">would wipe<\/a>\u00a0another 1m bpd or so off the world supply.<\/p>\n<p>Any resulting rise in oil prices would spread to other commodity prices, leading to inflationary pressure \u2013 particularly in countries affected by the end of waiver such as India, where inflation\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/in.reuters.com\/article\/india-markets\/expert-views-indias-march-inflation-picks-up-slightly-idINKCN1RO1IQ\">has already<\/a>\u00a0started picking up. Such countries would also see direct effects on their import bill and hence their balance of trade. For every dollar increase in oil rates in India, for instance, the import bill\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindubusinessline.com\/economy\/budget\/excise-duty-tweaked-on-petrol-diesel-keeps-tax-unchanged\/article22623780.ece\">will rise<\/a>\u00a0by R110 billion (\u00a31.2 billion) at a time when the country\u2019s trade deficit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/india\/balance-of-trade\">already stands<\/a>\u00a0at over \u00a38 billion.<\/p>\n<p>In many cases, such economic effects are all too capable of being exported. Take South Korea, which is the second biggest oil importer from Iran after China. South Korea mainly imports condensate, an ultra-light form of crude oil used for petrochemical products like naptha which it exports to neighbouring countries. If these petrochemical exports fall because Korean prices are no longer competitive, its neighbours will have to look further afield, creating a trade imbalance in the region.<\/p>\n<p>In the run-up to Trump\u2019s campaign to be re-elected for a second presidential term next year \u2013 assuming he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/did-trump-obstruct-justice-5-questions-congress-must-answer-115751\">makes it<\/a>\u00a0that far \u2013 there is therefore a great deal riding on this US gambit. If OPEC does not step up to the plate, and the oil price continues surging upwards, it could yet become the moment when the longstanding fears around the health of the world economy finally crystallise into a full-blown downturn.<\/p>\n<p><em>This post <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/trumps-crackdown-on-irans-oil-exports-could-backfire-badly-with-serious-risks-to-global-economy-115852\">first appeared on The Conversation, 23 April 2019<\/a>.\u00a0Nafis Alam is Associate Professor of Finance at Henley Business School Malaysia, University of Reading Malaysia. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By blocking Iran&#8217;s oil exports the US could cause a spike in oil prices and tip the world economy into a downturn, writes Nafis Alam for The Conversation.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[1324,494,1323,987,988],"class_list":["post-17501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-global-economy","tag-iran","tag-oil","tag-trump","tag-us-politics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - 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