{"id":17544,"date":"2019-05-03T10:33:32","date_gmt":"2019-05-03T09:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=17544"},"modified":"2021-11-15T09:24:55","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T09:24:55","slug":"nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuclear weapons might save the world from an asteroid strike \u2013 but we need to change the law first"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>If an asteroid were to head on a collision course towards earth, an\u00a0<em>Armageddon<\/em>-style nuclear explosion may well be our best line of defence. But would doing so open us up to a potential space-based nuclear apocalypse instead? Reading Law Professor James A. Green explores the legal issues surrounding the &#8216;nuclear option&#8217; <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first-115865\">in a recent post for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more-->The schlocky 1998 Bruce Willis movie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0120591\/\">Armageddon<\/a> was the highest grossing film of that year. The blockbuster saw a master oil driller (Willis) and an unlikely crew of misfits place a nuclear bomb inside a giant asteroid heading for Earth, blow it up \u2013 and save humanity. Armageddon isn\u2019t exactly a documentary: it\u2019s packed full of sci-fi nonsense. But, 20 years on, its basic plot \u2013 of using a nuclear explosion to avert a cataclysmic asteroid collision \u2013 doesn\u2019t seem quite as silly as it did at the time.<\/p>\n<p>Major asteroid impact is a low-probability, but high-consequence risk to life on Earth. Large <a href=\"https:\/\/cneos.jpl.nasa.gov\">\u201cNear Earth Objects\u201d (NEOs)<\/a> don\u2019t hit Earth often, but it only takes one (just ask the dinosaurs \u2013 oh, wait, you can\u2019t). Of course, low probability risks are easily dismissed, however high the consequences of them manifesting might be \u2013 and until recently the countries of the world largely viewed the threat posed by NEOs as something best left to Hollywood.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s all changed, following the impact (in more ways than one) of the meteoroid that hit <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-russia-meteorite-idUSBRE91E05Z20130215\">Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013<\/a>, which injured more than 1,000 people. Suddenly, the NEO threat became \u201creal\u201d, and major players \u2013 the US, Russia and the EU \u2013 all started pumping money into NEO preparedness, and developing formal strategies for response (see, for example, the production of the US\u2019s first ever <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/atoms\/files\/national_near-earth_object_preparedness_strategy_tagged.pdf\">National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy<\/a> in December 2016).<\/p>\n<p>At the UN, we\u2019ve recently witnessed the creation of an embryonic <a href=\"http:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/oosa\/en\/ourwork\/topics\/neos\/index.html\">international institutional infrastructure<\/a> to detect and respond to asteroids. As part of all this \u2013 and in line with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/technology\/archive\/2013\/10\/the-plans-to-use-nuclear-weapons-to-blow-up-incoming-asteroids\/280593\/\">increasing scientific opinion<\/a> \u2013 there is also a notable focus at governmental and intergovernmental levels on the use of nuclear weapons as our best hope. The US and Russia have even mooted working together on a <a href=\"https:\/\/energy.gov\/articles\/united-states-russia-sign-agreement-further-research-and-development-collaboration-nuclear\">nuclear planetary defence initiative<\/a>. All of a sudden, it seems Bruce Willis and his team might be put on NASA\u2019s speed-dial, after all.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Asteroid Armageddon\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Ku-MHNsEXF4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>What the law says<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As a lawyer I can\u2019t help but wonder how these recent developments sit with international law. Not well, it would seem. At the intersection of nuclear non-proliferation law and space law, various Cold War-era treaties would appear to rule out nuclear planetary defence. The legal picture is not always clear \u2013 the relevant law was drafted with the superpower arms race in mind, after all, not asteroids. But if a collision-course NEO was identified, it can at least be said that a proposed nuclear response would be very likely to violate international law.<\/p>\n<p>For example, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/pdf\/publications\/STSPACE11E.pdf\">Article IV of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty<\/a> prohibits stationing nuclear weapons in space, which would apparently rule out nuclear NEO defence, at least if a nuclear defence system was located in space (rather than being launched from Earth).<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/t\/isn\/4797.htm\">1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty<\/a> is an even bigger barrier for most states (although, notably, not all of the nuclear powers are party to it \u2013 but the US and Russia both are). Article I(1)(a) of that treaty prohibits \u201cany \u2026 nuclear explosion \u2026 in \u2026 outer space\u201d. And these are just the key treaties: there are a number of other possible legal hurdles, too.<\/p>\n<p>So what? If it came to a choice between legal niceties and saving humanity from extinction, there wouldn\u2019t be much of a choice at all: law shouldn\u2019t be a global suicide pact. Indeed, one nuclear power, Russia, has already <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/worldnews\/europe\/russia\/12103720\/EU-Russia-may-nuke-asteroids.html\">indicated<\/a> that \u2013 if that asteroid appeared \u2013 it likely would opt for \u201claunch first, litigate second\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>But ignoring the law is always a dangerous business, and it\u2019s not hard to envisage nuclear powers using the vague threat of \u201casteroids\u201d as a pretext for developing new warheads, or even for launching nukes into space. And if they do so in unapologetic violation of international law, they\u2019ll also circumvent all the checks and balances that the law can provide. That threat is maybe more worrying than the threat of some hypothetical space rock.<\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/repository.uchastings.edu\/cgi\/viewcontent.cgi?article=1831&amp;context=hastings_international_comparative_law_review\">major article<\/a> just published in the Hastings International &amp; Comparative Law Review, I argue that international law needs to work out a way to thread this needle.<\/p>\n<p>The law has to protect us from states using asteroids as a pretext for dodging nuclear disarmament obligations, or \u2013 gulp \u2013 nuclear aggression in space, while at the same time providing for a limited, safeguarded exception that would allow for multilateral nuclear planetary defence, should it ever come to pass that we need the \u201cnuclear option\u201d to save ourselves.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A solution?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As such, I propose either treaty amendment (or, more likely, the adoption of additional protocols) to carve out a new, bespoke legal exception for the use of nuclear weapons in space, in instances where a large collision-course NEO was identified and verified, and where the balance of independent scientific option clearly supported a nuclear response.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, to promote certainty, protect against abuse and increase the chances of success through the pooling of expertise and resources, I also argue for the creation of a new multilateral decision-making and oversight body, composed of all states (or as many states as possible), and which additionally included direct input from independently appointed scientific experts and organisations.<\/p>\n<p>The aim is that the new body would be equipped both to stop countries misusing the new legal exception to develop militarised nuclear space programmes, while at the same time avoiding the deadlock issues associated with existing institutions (such as, for example, the UN Security Council) if humanity has to act quickly to avoid going the way of the dinosaurs.<\/p>\n<p>All of this would be extremely complex (legally, politically and financially) and would take a huge amount of time to set up. But when it comes to the \u201casteroid threat\u201d, time is not an issue. Until it is. So I suggest we get started now.<\/p>\n<p>The political and scientific context has changed since 2013 but the legal context is still stuck in the thinking of the 1960s \u2013 and we need to update it. If we don\u2019t, we really could risk Armageddon.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first-115865\">first appeared on The Conversation, 24 April 2019<\/a>. James A. Green is Professor of Public International Law at the University of Reading. He is the author of The Persistent Objector Rule in International Law (OUP, 2016) and The International Court of Justice and Self-Defence in International Law (Hart Publishing, 2009), which won the Francis Lieber Prize. He is co-editor-in-chief of the Journal on the Use of Force and International Law (Routledge).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If an asteroid were to head on a collision course towards earth, an\u00a0Armageddon-style nuclear explosion may well be our best line of defence. But would doing so open us up&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#49;&#57;&#47;&#48;&#53;&#47;&#48;&#51;&#47;&#110;&#117;&#99;&#108;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#45;&#119;&#101;&#97;&#112;&#111;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#109;&#105;&#103;&#104;&#116;&#45;&#115;&#97;&#118;&#101;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#101;&#45;&#119;&#111;&#114;&#108;&#100;&#45;&#102;&#114;&#111;&#109;&#45;&#97;&#110;&#45;&#97;&#115;&#116;&#101;&#114;&#111;&#105;&#100;&#45;&#115;&#116;&#114;&#105;&#107;&#101;&#45;&#98;&#117;&#116;&#45;&#119;&#101;&#45;&#110;&#101;&#101;&#100;&#45;&#116;&#111;&#45;&#99;&#104;&#97;&#110;&#103;&#101;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#101;&#45;&#108;&#97;&#119;&#45;&#102;&#105;&#114;&#115;&#116;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":17545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[1331,1329,1330,1095,870],"class_list":["post-17544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-asteroid","tag-near-earth-objects","tag-nuclear-space-programme","tag-public-international-law","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nuclear weapons might save the world from an asteroid strike \u2013 but we need to change the law first - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nuclear weapons might save the world from an asteroid strike \u2013 but we need to change the law first - Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If an asteroid were to head on a collision course towards earth, an\u00a0Armageddon-style nuclear explosion may well be our best line of defence. But would doing so open us up...Read More &gt;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theuniversityofreading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-03T09:33:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-15T09:24:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/Unorganized\/armageddon-2104385_640.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sarah Harrop\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sarah Harrop\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Sarah Harrop\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#\/schema\/person\/99810845f887cb4c7aa3256ff496fd23\"},\"headline\":\"Nuclear weapons might save the world from an asteroid strike \u2013 but we need to change the law first\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-03T09:33:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-15T09:24:55+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\"},\"wordCount\":1156,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"asteroid\",\"near earth objects\",\"nuclear space programme\",\"Public International Law\",\"The Conversation\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Prosperity &amp; Resilience\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/03\/nuclear-weapons-might-save-the-world-from-an-asteroid-strike-but-we-need-to-change-the-law-first\/\",\"name\":\"Nuclear weapons might save the world from an asteroid strike \u2013 but we need to change the law first - 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