{"id":17841,"date":"2019-05-10T09:09:58","date_gmt":"2019-05-10T08:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=17841"},"modified":"2019-05-09T14:11:56","modified_gmt":"2019-05-09T13:11:56","slug":"how-sudans-economic-crisis-had-a-role-in-protests-that-toppled-al-bashir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/05\/10\/how-sudans-economic-crisis-had-a-role-in-protests-that-toppled-al-bashir\/","title":{"rendered":"How Sudan\u2019s economic crisis had a role in protests that toppled al-Bashir"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the ousting of Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir last month, Professor Peter Robert Woodward looks at the economic crisis that precipitated his downfall and what needs to be done to restore the country’s economy in a new post for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The trigger for the demonstrations that brought the downfall of President Omar al-Bashir in April was the\u00a0trebling of the price of bread<\/a>\u00a0last December. It came after a\u00a0major devaluation<\/a>\u00a0of the Sudanese pound in an effort to make the official rate for the pound drop to that of the black market. With the International Monetary Fund pushing for austerity and the rate of inflation hovering\u00a0around 70%<\/a>, the camel\u2019s back was finally broken.<\/p>\n

In fact the immediate cause of the economic crisis that brought many thousands of Sudanese out onto the streets in December last year and continued up to and beyond al-Bashir\u2019s downfall lay in the structure of the economy itself.<\/p>\n

Sudan\u2019s inherited economy from the colonial era consisted primarily of agricultural exports, particularly cotton. But after independence in 1956 that went into a long decline in the face of man-made fibres and a lack of success in developing of alternative crops \u2013 with the partial exception of sugar.<\/p>\n

In the 2000s the country experienced\u00a0something of a boom from oil<\/a>. But the new wealth wasn\u2019t funnelled into the productive economy \u2013 particularly agricultural renewal. Rather it went into short-term rent seeking activities such as urban construction and the expansion of commercial activities.<\/p>\n

At the same time the country\u2019s radical Islamism brought US economic sanctions that limited international capital and the prospect of economic diversity. And under the Islamist military regime \u2013 in place since 1989 \u2013 new wealth went largely to the security apparatus, the government created ruling party and ethnic and regional friends.<\/p>\n

This all added up to a highly corrupt system of \u201ccrony capitalism\u201d. In addition, Sudan\u2019s\u00a0large long running debts<\/a>\u00a0hung over the country.<\/p>\n

The role of oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

The development of oil in Sudan was delayed for many years by civil war in the south, where most of the oil fields are located. But by the end of the 1990s security had permitted development with the southern rebels being pushed back, though not defeated.<\/p>\n

Under growing international pressure the military rulers and the southern rebels finally moved towards peace, and in 2005\u00a0an agreement was reached<\/a>. It aimed at a national government but conceded that if that proved unworkable the south, including most of the oil fields, would have a right to a referendum on independence.<\/p>\n

In 2011 southerners overwhelmingly chose independence and South Sudan became the\u00a0world\u2019s newest state<\/a>. Since then the Sudan government\u2019s oil income has shrunk by about 75%. One reason has been the fluctuating world price of oil, but others are more local.<\/p>\n

Oil from South Sudan is pumped north through Sudan to be exported via the Red Sea. After South Sudan\u2019s independence a dispute between the two states about pipeline rents led at one stage to South Sudan closing all its oil production for a year. The flow later restarted, but was once more restricted when South Sudan itself plunged into\u00a0civil war<\/a>\u00a0in 2013, ended only by a\u00a0fragile peace<\/a>\u00a0last year.<\/p>\n

The cuts in revenue from oil, combined with sluggish economic growth, led to rising discontent. This came to a head when the government cut subsidies on basics such as bread and oil.<\/p>\n

In 2015 a particularly widespread series of demonstrations was met with a violent response. But the causes of discontent remained largely unaddressed and the situation for many people continued to deteriorate, in spite of a partial easing of US sanctions.<\/p>\n

What needs to be done<\/strong><\/p>\n

This time around the first mass demonstrations started, unusually, not in the capital but in the regions and in particular in the city of Atbara \u2013 which has long been a centre of radical secular thinking \u2013 before spreading to the capital in Khartoum.<\/p>\n

With memories of the killings of 2015 still fresh there was a good deal of planning going on among the different opposition groups. The security forces also remembered 2015 and this time there was little use of live ammunition, trying to contain rather than shoot the demonstrators in their increasingly well planned and growing efforts.<\/p>\n

To restore the economy the post-Bashir government will need to clean up corruption; revive small-scale agriculture in the regions; restore health and education services; and attract investment for productive jobs for underemployed, educated young people who have been the backbone of the uprising.<\/p>\n

This post first appeared on The Conversation, 6 May 2019<\/a>. Peter Robert Woodward is Emeritus Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Reading.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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