{"id":17971,"date":"2019-06-11T16:52:26","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T15:52:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=17971"},"modified":"2023-04-24T12:49:39","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T11:49:39","slug":"is-anyone-asking-who-young-conservatives-want-as-their-leader-its-probably-not-boris-johnson","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2019\/06\/11\/is-anyone-asking-who-young-conservatives-want-as-their-leader-its-probably-not-boris-johnson\/","title":{"rendered":"Is anyone asking who young Conservatives want as their leader? It\u2019s probably not Boris Johnson"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr Mark Shanahan from our Politics and International Relations Research Division discusses the Conservative Party’s badly timed leadership race with some Young Conservatives in a new post for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Image credit: Sergeant Tom Robinson RLC\/MOD, OGL v1.0,, CC-BY-2.0, wikimedia commons<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This is the race the Conservative Party didn\u2019t want. A contest set for spills with few apparent thrills for a party, an electorate and a country fatigued by the sheer boredom of the Brexit nightmare.<\/p>\n

Would-be successors to Theresa May didn\u2019t even wait for the official starter\u2019s gun on June 10 before they were crowding the paddock, preening, panting and pacing. First to arrive was Boris Johnson, who has been preparing largely by following the Hamilton line \u201ctalk less, smile more\u201d<\/a> \u2013 not easy for the Bullingdon boy. Despite a fancy launch video, Johnson was slow to get out of the starting blocks thanks to the threat (now gone) of a court appearance<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n
Others have filled the void: Dominic Raab sounding more than vaguely <\/span>misogynistic<\/a>, and Esther McVey playing the populist card but dropping a clanging dud, with <\/span>parental advice<\/a> on teaching children about same-sex relationships.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

But beyond the candidate launches, (and already the withdrawals from the likes of James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse) all we\u2019ve heard so far is the reaction of Toryshire. The heartland parents and grandparents \u2013 those who haven\u2019t already been lost to the seductive lure of the Brexit Party<\/a> \u2013 have been having their say across the nation\u2019s media<\/a>, and have been placing their bets.<\/p>\n

But what is missing so far from the debate are the voices of young Conservatives. Until recently a dying breed, party members under the age of 25 have become increasingly vocal in recent years. Certainly at my university they\u2019re a strong, spirited and active group. I tapped into the current crop \u2013 and their national network of student friends, constituency colleagues and recent graduates to see which way they feel the wind is blowing as the 11 runners and riders jostle for their vote.<\/p>\n

One political adviser told me:<\/p>\n

The mood is dire among MPs and staff alike. Utterly depressing, it\u2019s a total deadlock and it\u2019s hard to really see a way out. Everyone agrees May had to go but not because they think anyone else could necessarily do a better job. It\u2019s a shame Liz Truss isn\u2019t running. Both she and Penny Mordaunt are very popular among my younger friends. Rory Stewart is also discussed a lot.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The adviser noted one particularly striking difference between older and younger party members. He said that while elderly members love Johnson, \u201calmost all young Tories seem to dislike him or at least recognise he\u2019d be bad news or at least risky\u201d.<\/p>\n

Raab<\/a>, a former Brexit minister, seems to have his detractors among the young insiders, and Michael Gove is no favourite either \u2013 being described by several who spoke to me as \u201codd\u201d. One person who is rated highly in the Westminster Tory village is hard Brexiter and former leader of the House Andrea Leadsom \u2013 not least for her work as Leader of the House on bullying culture<\/a> in parliament.<\/p>\n

One Midlands Young Conservative chairman summed up the view of a number of his colleagues, wishing that hardline Brexiter Steve Baker could have the job. \u201cHe\u2019s not a consensus politician \u2013 he is a conviction politician. He\u2019s so very principled; he voted against the withdrawal agreement in all three presentations of the bill.\u201d<\/p>\n

This differentiates Baker from many of his rivals as he\u2019s seen to be less opportunistic than Johnson and less expedient than Raab. But with hours to the final deadline, he doesn\u2019t seem to be running.<\/p>\n

It appears that the idea of a \u201cclean Brexit\u201d is thriving in the Leave-leaning Tory heartlands among young members, even if it has little traction around Westminster, where those who are sceptical of leaving the EU without a deal, such as Jeremy Hunt, Matthew Hancock and Sajid Javid, all have their supporters.<\/p>\n

In university towns, the message is a little different. Some students seem to view Stewart as a viable compromise candidate and more in touch with what was described to me as: \u201cThe thinking Tory.\u201d He is seen as part of the next generation of leaders with the right blend of charisma and intelligence to carry both the party and the country \u2013 much more the cosmopolitan than Baker, whose appeal appears to dwell more among the bar room politicians of the Conservative heartlands.<\/p>\n

Both Johnson and Raab have their supporters (Gove only drew one vote from the dozens of Young Tories I\u2019ve spoken to and engaged with on social media \u2013 and that was before he admitted to using cocaine in the past<\/a>) but the front runners are not duplicating that excitement among young Conservative party members who will soon be electing their new leader and almost certainly the country\u2019s next prime minister. \u201cBoris is a chancer\u201d, summed up one student: \u201cA bit like Trump, this is all about him, not the country or the party. And as for Gove, we already know he has the capability to stab his friends in the back.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 2018, parliament recorded Conservative Party membership as 124,000 with 83% aged 45 and above. The base figure is now higher (not least through an influx of Purple ex-UKIP Tories), but many of those, largely older voters, could be lost to the Brexit Party. Young Tories have regrouped through initiatives such as Blue Beyond<\/a> and are making their voices heard louder and more eloquently than for a generation. It\u2019s surprising that candidates aren\u2019t courting them more.<\/p>\n

This post first appeared on The Conversation, 10 June 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dr Mark Shanahan<\/a> is from the University of Reading’s Politics and International Relations research division. He specialises in US government and the celebritisation of American political culture from Eisenhower to Trump (and beyond) and the role of Parliament in UK government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr Mark Shanahan from our Politics and International Relations Research Division discusses the Conservative Party’s badly timed leadership race with some Young Conservatives in a new post for The Conversation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[136,211,1371,1084,870],"class_list":["post-17971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-brexit","tag-conservative-party","tag-leadership-contest","tag-politics-and-international-relations","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs anyone asking who young Conservatives want as their leader? 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