{"id":19372,"date":"2020-01-08T10:30:16","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T10:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=19372"},"modified":"2020-01-08T10:30:16","modified_gmt":"2020-01-08T10:30:16","slug":"what-next-for-irans-proxy-network-after-killing-of-qassem-soleimani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2020\/01\/08\/what-next-for-irans-proxy-network-after-killing-of-qassem-soleimani\/","title":{"rendered":"What next for Iran\u2019s proxy network after killing of Qassem Soleimani?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Proxy war expert Dr Vladimir Rauta provides analysis of the possible fall-out from the assassination of Iran’s Quds Force leader in a new piece for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A gamble, a shot in the dark, a risky move. Since the\u00a0assassination<\/a>\u00a0in Baghdad of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran\u2019s Quds Force, at the order of US President Donald Trump, speculation has mounted that the ensuing crisis could lead to\u00a0a regional or international war<\/a>. After all, #FranzFerdinand was\u00a0trending on Twitter<\/a>\u00a0in a nod to the assassination that triggered the first world war.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s possible reaction to the killing still sits on a wide spectrum: from restraint and harsh rhetorical bark to a full, military response.<\/p>\n

The regime has to meet the demands of two audiences, domestic and international. First, Iran finds itself internationally isolated while fully committed to its Middle East expansionism through its network of proxies. Second, it is facing the worst domestic dissent in decades and spared\u00a0no expense on quashing protests<\/a>\u00a0in late 2019.<\/p>\n

No matter what action it chooses to take, Iran will make careful and strategic decisions about what to do next. Much like it deliberately sought strategic gains in 2019 from shooting\u00a0down a US drone<\/a>, seizing tankers and attacking Saudi oil infrastructure\u00a0through the Yemeni Houthi rebels<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 whose proxy links to Tehran have been documented by\u00a0the UN<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 Iran\u2019s response will be equally calculated.<\/p>\n

It has already swiftly\u00a0declared its independence from the nuclear deal<\/a>, cautious not to shift the current narrative characterising the American strike as a strategic blunder. Soleimani\u2019s replacement, General Esmail Ghaani, also\u00a0promised<\/a>\u00a0a certain, yet patient response to the killing. Iran\u2019s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei\u00a0said the programme<\/a>\u00a0of the Quds Force, affiliated to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps \u201cwill be unchanged from the time of his predecessor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Decades of proxy building<\/strong><\/p>\n

A key set of questions now concerns Iran\u2019s deployment of its proxy power to retaliate against Soleimani\u2019s killing. It could co-ordinate a multi-pronged series of responses from proxies scattered across the Middle East. Or it could combine direct and indirect military action, while also engaging in cyber retaliation.<\/p>\n

For decades, Iran banked on the strategy of wars by proxy through a network it labelled the\u00a0\u201caxis of resistance\u201d<\/a>. Aimed at curtailing US presence in the Middle East and its regional rivals, chiefly Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran has been waging a campaign of low-level, surreptitious proxy wars in the Middle East from Iraq to Syria to Yemen and Afghanistan. As my own research has examined,\u00a0a proxy war is usually a low-level conflict<\/a>\u00a0in which states support violent non-state actors militarily, financially and otherwise, with the aim of using these groups as conduits for military action. Simply put, proxy wars are indirect wars which afford deniability, ensure cost-effectiveness and protect against international blowback and condemnation.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s model emerged from its relationship with Hezbollah, but the Lebanese Shia group has outgrown\u00a0its proxy status<\/a>\u00a0and reached near peer status with the Quds Force. Hezbollah has now become a middle-man helping Iran to train proxy militias, as it did in Syria.<\/p>\n

According to analysis by the Soufan Center, Iran\u2019s\u00a0network now includes<\/a>\u00a0the Badr Corps, the Popular Mobilisation Forces, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq in Iraq, the Palestine Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Palestine, and the Houthis in Yemen. It also includes the the\u00a0Fatemiyoun Brigade<\/a>\u00a0in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n

Long-standing Iranian coordination embedded and socialised these militias into a Shia proxy network, but at no point did it chip away at their ability to operate independently. Independent retaliation for Soleimani\u2019s killing from these proxy militias is now therefore also likely. Proxy loyalty does not mean total subservience.<\/p>\n

As such, following the US strikes, the availability of proxy militias exposes the possibility of asymmetric Iranian retaliation across the Middle East. How intense their vengeance might be remains the factor to watch, as Iranian calls for crushing revenge currently spark fears of escalation and all-out war.<\/p>\n

After Soleimani<\/strong><\/p>\n

But questions have also emerged about whether Iran\u2019s proxy network will survive Soleimani\u2019s assassination, or collapse under a new leadership. There is no doubt Soleimani was central to\u00a0Iran\u2019s proxy war strategy<\/a>. It was not just that the Quds Force coordinated, trained, set up and sponsored militias under his leadership. Soleimani was the policy \u2013 he was the embodiment of Iranian military expansionism at its most ruthless. No wonder Foreign Policy magazine included him in a list of\u00a02019\u2019s Global Thinkers<\/a>\u00a0for security and defence, and US General Stanley McChrystal\u00a0called<\/a>\u00a0Soleimani \u201cIran\u2019s deadly puppet master\u201d.<\/p>\n

As a consequence he was lionised by the militias he socialised as proxies into the Iranian network. This is why proxy wars should be seen not merely as trade offs, but a thought-out strategic bargain in which the parties negotiate and renegotiate the costs, benefits, and consequences of war. His assassination is no doubt a huge blow to the proxy network because it removes the connecting strategic thread that allowed Iran to link Beirut to Sana\u2019a and Damscus to Baghdad and Tehran. In doing so, it simultaneously reveals both the weakness behind the decade-long investment into proxies and also its resilience. As the writer and anthropologist Narges Bajoghli has\u00a0argued<\/a>, the relationship between the Revolutionary Guards and Iraqi and Lebanese Shiite armed groups is a long and deep one, leaving the \u201cproxy\u201d institutional infrastructure intact.<\/p>\n

The future of Iran\u2019s proxy network will depend not just on the Iranian commitment, but also on the independence of action of these proxies. Some may be drawn even closer to Tehran, others could splinter and defect, while new groups could emerge and embrace the narrative and legacy of Soleimani.<\/p>\n

This article first appeared on The Conversation, 7 January 2020<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Dr Vladimir Rauta is a Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Reading<\/a>. He researches proxy wars and has published articles in International Relations, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, and the Cambridge Review of International Affairs. He is currently working on a book project analysing the contemporary dynamics of proxy wars. He holds a PhD in international relations from the University of Nottingham on proxy wars with a focus on the Horn of Africa.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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