{"id":21231,"date":"2020-11-26T14:55:39","date_gmt":"2020-11-26T14:55:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=21231"},"modified":"2020-11-26T14:52:37","modified_gmt":"2020-11-26T14:52:37","slug":"ethiopias-troubled-history-provides-clues-to-why-an-all-out-civil-war-is-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2020\/11\/26\/ethiopias-troubled-history-provides-clues-to-why-an-all-out-civil-war-is-possible\/","title":{"rendered":"Ethiopia\u2019s troubled history provides clues to why an all-out civil war is possible"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ethiopia\u2019s government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-africa-54864868\">carrying out<\/a>\u00a0a military offensive in Tigray, Ethiopia\u2019s most northern state. A six month state of emergency has been declared in the region. Dozens of casualties have been reported amid fears that nine million people are at risk of being\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-africa-54864868\">displaced<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The offensive follows accusations by Ahmed\u2019s government that forces loyal to the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front, the ruling party in Tigray,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/africa\/ethiopia-near-civil-war-pm-sends-army-defiant-region\">attacked<\/a>\u00a0a military base. There have since been reports of a number of air strikes on the Tigray capital, Mekelle.<\/p>\n<p>There have been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/addisstandard.com\/news-hopr-speaker-says-parliament-will-take-measures-against-absent-tigray-reps\/\">mounting<\/a>\u00a0political tensions in the country. The Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ethiopias-political-crisis-plays-out-in-the-regions-why-its-a-federal-problem-144893\">dominated<\/a>\u00a0the country\u2019s military and government before Ahmed took office in 2018. His subsequent formation of a new Prosperity Party saw members of the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-africa-54826875\">removed<\/a>\u00a0from critical positions.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-21232\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2020\/11\/Tigray_Ethiopia-300x182.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"388\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2020\/11\/Tigray_Ethiopia-300x182.jpg 300w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2020\/11\/Tigray_Ethiopia-768x465.jpg 768w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2020\/11\/Tigray_Ethiopia.jpg 888w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Despite comprising\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/11\/08\/world\/africa\/ethiopia-tigray.html\">only 6%<\/a>\u00a0of Ethiopia\u2019s population, Tigrayans have historically carried a significant proportion of federal power since leading the way to victory during the 1974 to 1991 Civil War. They have recently protested their marginalisation and alienation by Ahmed\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n<p>Tensions reached a peak when the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/tigray-regions-defiance-puts-strains-on-ethiopias-unity\/a-54848990\">criticised<\/a>\u00a0Ahmed\u2019s decision to postpone the nationwide August 2020 elections indefinitely because of COVID-19. In\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/9\/9\/ethiopias-tigray-region-holds-vote-defying-abiys-federal-govt\">an act<\/a>\u00a0of defiance Tigrayan leaders recalled their federal representatives from Addis Ababa and held their own elections.<\/p>\n<p>Rhetoric\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TigrayCAB\/\">escalated<\/a>, as Ahmed condemned the elections as \u201cillegitimate\u201d while Tigray media outlets have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/TigrayCAB\/posts\/668012193912904?__tn__=K-R\">called<\/a>\u00a0the government a \u201cpersonalistic dictatorship\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>As\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/history\/about\/staff\/h-i-schmidt.aspx\">historians<\/a>\u00a0of conflict and popular insurgency, including the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/unireadinghistory.com\/tag\/ethiopia\/\">Ethiopian Civil War<\/a>, we argue that this is no trivial political dispute. Ethiopia is a transethnic federation, meaning it is a centralised state made up of a network of decentralised ethnic-based administrations. These are in regular competition for influence.<\/p>\n<p>The Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fr.reuters.com\/article\/ozatp-uk-ethiopia-politics-tigray-idAFKBN1OF0BK-OZATP\">wants to<\/a>\u00a0prevent Ahmed from replacing the federal arrangement with a unitary government, in which they would not play a critical part.<\/p>\n<p>There is a real possibility that an all-out civil war could begin and spill over into the rest of the country. History shows that there is the capacity for widespread mobilisation within the Tigrayan community. The Tigray state is also at Ethiopia\u2019s border with Eritrea and so its military has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/11\/6\/explainer-what-is-happening-in-ethiopias-tigray-region\">considerable<\/a>\u00a0conflict experience. It\u2019s estimated that the Front\u2019s paramilitary force and local militia number\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/africa\/horn-africa\/ethiopia\/ethiopias-clash-tigray-getting-ceasefire-and-national-dialogue\">some<\/a>\u00a0250,000 troops.<\/p>\n<p>In addition, there has been recent violent dissent among other ethnic groups in Ethiopia. This has included the Oromos, the Prime Minister\u2019s own ethnic group. Friction has also remained along the border with Eritrea.<\/p>\n<p>If Tigray continues to engage with government forces, it could encourage other dissenting groups to do the same and potentially draw neighbouring states into the conflict.<\/p>\n<p>There have been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2020\/11\/1077122\">international calls<\/a>\u00a0for de-escalation and peaceful resolution. But Ahmed has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-africa-54864868\">vowed<\/a>\u00a0to continue with military and political action.<\/p>\n<p>The threat of repeated history looms large.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Legacy of civil war<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front has a significant history of popular mobilisation. The Tigrayan State has also maintained its own well-trained militia since the end of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.newworldencyclopedia.org\/entry\/Eritrean_War_of_Independence\">Civil War<\/a>\u00a0in 1991. And it has a history of fighting for democracy and representation.<\/p>\n<p>When Emperor Haile Selassie was deposed by the army in 1974, the Soviet-supported military junta \u2013 the Derg \u2013 imposed a repressive ruling regime. In Tigray, an extraordinary resistance\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.co.uk\/books\/about\/Sweeter_Than_Honey.html?id=z9jBNwAACAAJ&amp;redir_esc=y\">emerged<\/a>\u00a0in the form of a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.co.uk\/books\/about\/Sweeter_Than_Honey.html?id=z9jBNwAACAAJ&amp;redir_esc=y\">highly organised<\/a>\u00a0and politically mature people\u2019s revolution.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/peasant-revolution-in-ethiopia\/E3B7988793DC3063511E3765B026EE16\">Tens of thousands<\/a>\u00a0of men, women and students were mobilised for combat. Schools and other education centres were\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/peasant-revolution-in-ethiopia\/E3B7988793DC3063511E3765B026EE16\">set up<\/a>\u00a0in protected areas and unprecedented land reforms were introduced across the region. This meant that the movement was rooted in the needs of the people.<\/p>\n<p>As the populist revolution began to take ground, the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/1991\/05\/28\/world\/ethiopian-rebels-storm-the-capital-and-seize-control.html\">formed<\/a>\u00a0a coalition with other liberation groups called the Ethiopian People\u2019s Revolutionary Democratic Front. Victory against the Derg was secured in 1991.<\/p>\n<p>The front was a progressive alliance, uniting a deeply divided country into a nation. This should be understood in the context of a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/books\/peasant-revolution-in-ethiopia\/E3B7988793DC3063511E3765B026EE16\">long history<\/a>\u00a0of ethnic-based disputes which caused enormous disruption and loss of life.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.constituteproject.org\/constitution\/Ethiopia_1994.pdf?lang=en\">founding principle<\/a>\u00a0of the new federal state set out in the 1995 constitution was Article 39, which stipulated that every region had the right to self-determination and, should they desire, peaceful secession.<\/p>\n<p>Today, the Tigray People\u2019s Liberation Front is drawing on this clause as evidence of its democratic right to hold independent elections and dictate regional policy. Meanwhile, the central government\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/addisstandard.com\/breaking-national-defense-forces-given-order-to-start-military-offensive-against-tplf-pm-abiy-ahmed\/\">has accused<\/a>\u00a0the northern state of attempting to divide and weaken the country.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dangers of a federation<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Despite hopes for peace and development under a unitary government,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/addisstandard.com\/news-four-civilians-killed-three-seriously-injured-in-guji-zone-oromia-government-blames-rebel-group-oromo-liberation-army-ola\/\">enduring issues<\/a>\u00a0of ethnic conflict and division \u2013 based on imbalanced political representation \u2013 make clear the dangers of a federation.<\/p>\n<p>The ascent of Ahmed in 2018 brought grand hopes of reform. The reality, however, threatens once again to disappoint millions of Ethiopians who placed their trust in their leaders.<\/p>\n<p>As political and military actions escalate, there is an immediate need for de-escalation and dialogue to promote peaceful resolution. If Tigray wishes to consider its right to secede, this must be reviewed through the democratic processes in place for such an event in order to protect the stability of Ethiopia and the region and to prevent further descent into war.<\/p>\n<p>Heike Schmidt is an associate professor and Chessie Baldwin is a PhD student in the Department of History.<\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ethiopias-troubled-history-provides-clues-to-why-an-all-out-civil-war-is-possible-149648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ethiopia\u2019s government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is\u00a0carrying out\u00a0a military offensive in Tigray, Ethiopia\u2019s most northern state. A six month state of emergency has been declared in the region. Dozens&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#48;&#47;&#49;&#49;&#47;&#50;&#54;&#47;&#101;&#116;&#104;&#105;&#111;&#112;&#105;&#97;&#115;&#45;&#116;&#114;&#111;&#117;&#98;&#108;&#101;&#100;&#45;&#104;&#105;&#115;&#116;&#111;&#114;&#121;&#45;&#112;&#114;&#111;&#118;&#105;&#100;&#101;&#115;&#45;&#99;&#108;&#117;&#101;&#115;&#45;&#116;&#111;&#45;&#119;&#104;&#121;&#45;&#97;&#110;&#45;&#97;&#108;&#108;&#45;&#111;&#117;&#116;&#45;&#99;&#105;&#118;&#105;&#108;&#45;&#119;&#97;&#114;&#45;&#105;&#115;&#45;&#112;&#111;&#115;&#115;&#105;&#98;&#108;&#101;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[1492,1780,236,441],"class_list":["post-21231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-heritage-creativity","tag-african-modern-history","tag-civil-war","tag-department-of-history","tag-history"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ethiopia\u2019s troubled history provides clues to why an all-out civil war is possible - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2020\/11\/26\/ethiopias-troubled-history-provides-clues-to-why-an-all-out-civil-war-is-possible\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ethiopia\u2019s troubled history provides clues to why an all-out civil war is possible - Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ethiopia\u2019s government, under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is\u00a0carrying out\u00a0a military offensive in Tigray, Ethiopia\u2019s most northern state. 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