{"id":22232,"date":"2021-07-23T08:45:37","date_gmt":"2021-07-23T07:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=22232"},"modified":"2022-08-25T15:10:35","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T14:10:35","slug":"tokyo-olympics-without-crowds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2021\/07\/23\/tokyo-olympics-without-crowds\/","title":{"rendered":"Tokyo Olympics without crowds: will the home nation\u2019s medal chances suffer?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Tokyo 2021 Olympics will be the first Games to take place with\u00a0no spectators<\/a>. The sight of sparsely populated stadiums and arenas has, of course, become common during the pandemic \u2013 and sports economists have studied the impact this has had on athletic performance.<\/p>\n

But the Olympics are different. For so many athletes, reaching the four-yearly Games is the crowning achievement of their careers. So there was bitter disappointment when at first\u00a0international<\/a>\u00a0and then\u00a0domestic<\/a>\u00a0visitors\u00a0were banned<\/a>\u00a0from events.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Now all athletes in Tokyo will be performing to venues\u00a0largely emptied<\/a>\u00a0of all fans. But this will be more keenly felt by Japan\u2019s Olympic team, who would have dreamed of performing in front of their own fans. And how will the empty arenas affect their ability to capitalise on home advantage?<\/p>\n

A\u00a0supportive home audience<\/a>\u00a0is one of the four factors to which\u00a0home advantage<\/a>\u00a0in professional sports is routinely pegged. Others include athletes not having\u00a0to travel<\/a>, being\u00a0familiar<\/a>\u00a0with home conditions and\u00a0favourable referee bias<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The hosts of the last three summer Olympics –\u00a0Rio 2016<\/a>, London 2012 and Beijing 2008 – did unusually well too, gaining a higher proportion of Olympic success, as measured in medals and finalists, in both men\u2019s and women\u2019s events compared with the previous Games. In terms of gold medals only, Brazil went from three to seven between 2012 and 2016, Great Britain went from 19 to 29 between 2008 and 2012, and China went from 32 to 48 between 2004 and 2008.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Percentage of Olympic points in men\u2019s and women\u2019s events, won by host nations of the last three summer Olympic Games, 1992-2016. Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com. Olympic Points are summed over all men\u2019s or women\u2019s events in a Games according to the following: Gold=5, Silver=3, Bronze=2, Finalist=1.<\/span><\/p>\n

We\u00a0have quantified<\/a>\u00a0the general home advantage effects, throughout the modern Olympic period, from 1896 to 2016. Unlike most research to date, we have looked at both summer and winter Olympiads, and at sports held under very different conditions \u2013 with or without judges, inside or outside a venue, with many or few spectators.<\/p>\n

Modern Olympic history<\/h3>\n

We looked at the percentage of all available gold medals won by the host nation for each summer and winter Games in the modern era, from\u00a0Athens 1896<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0Rio 2016<\/a>, for men\u2019s and for women\u2019s events.<\/p>\n

In the early years the host had a substantial advantage. At the 1932 summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the US team won 28% of the gold medals available in the men\u2019s events and 70% in the women\u2019s events. This advantage then declined over time as the diversity of countries and athletes participating has\u00a0increased<\/a>, raising competition. At Rio 2016, 207 countries were represented, compared with just 37 countries in 1932.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Percentage of all gold medals in men\u2019s events won by the host nation at the summer and winter Olympic Games, 1896-2016. Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Percentage of all gold medals in women\u2019s events won by the host nation at the summer and winter Olympic Games, 1900-2016. Uses data from the International Olympic Committee and Olympics.com.<\/span><\/p>\n

Several\u00a0studies<\/a>\u00a0have estimated the effect of hosting the Olympics on the success of home teams and individual athletes. Typically, they have found that it depends on\u00a0the sport<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0athlete\u2019s gender<\/a>.<\/p>\n

By comparing how countries performed when hosting and when not, we estimate that hosts of the summer Olympics could expect on average a two percentage-point increase in their share of success across disciplines, for both men\u2019s and women\u2019s events. Assuming finalists and bronze medals were unaffected, this corresponds to Japan approximately turning every seventh silver medal into gold because they are competing at home.<\/p>\n

We also found that the home advantage effect has been 50% greater at the winter than the summer Olympics since 1988 in men\u2019s events. We found no advantage for female athletes from hosting at the winter Games.<\/p>\n

Great Britain may have achieved fewer golds in 2016 compared with their home games in 2012, but the overall medal count went up, from 67 to 69. In general, we found that spillover effects of hosting the summer Games on the previous and next Olympiads are normal.<\/p>\n

Compared with the year of actually hosting the summer Games, the boost in success in men\u2019s events was one-third as large as in the previous Games, and half as large as in the next Games. But these spillover effects from hosting do not tend to appear at the winter Games.<\/p>\n

Tokyo without crowds<\/h3>\n

Sports economists and psychologists have studied how the absence of fans has affected performance during the pandemic. Much\u00a0attention<\/a>\u00a0has focused on\u00a0football<\/a>, where\u00a0studies<\/a>\u00a0have found reduced home advantage in matches played behind closed doors.<\/p>\n

This is caused in part by how\u00a0referees could make decisions<\/a>\u00a0without the pressure of a home audience. Similar effects have been noted\u00a0in rugby<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Not all Olympic sports, however, attract a raucous crowd that inspires performances or pressures the referees. Previous\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0found a significant host advantage in judged sports (such as gymnastics), but not in track and field athletics or swimming, where audiences are typically huge, but officials seldom influence outcomes. And even in stadium and arena events, Olympic crowds are typically more international and less partisan than at a Premier League football match.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s athletes will also still have favourable home knowledge and experience of the conditions on site (the climate, routines, and venues). These might, however, somewhat be reduced due to the\u00a0cancellation<\/a>\u00a0of Olympic test events and the COVID measures on-site, which remain extraordinary compared to other years.<\/p>\n

International athletes, meanwhile, will have had to travel to Tokyo. And all participants who do not live in Japan will have had to quarantine at their accommodation upon arrival for at least\u00a0three days<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Therefore, Japan is still likely to do well. A strong showing by the host nation matters. While the economic benefits of hosting are\u00a0minimal<\/a>\u00a0despite their\u00a0ever increasing<\/a>\u00a0costs, research has shown there are other positive benefits, from\u00a0increased sports participation<\/a>\u00a0among citizens to a sense of\u00a0national pride, happiness<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0wellbeing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Carl Singleton is Associate Professor in Economics, University of Reading. Dominik Schreyer is Assistant Professor of Sports Economics, WHU \u2013 Otto Beisheim School of Management. Johan Rewilak is Lecturer in Economics, Finance and Entrepreneurship, Aston University.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Tokyo 2021 Olympics will be the first Games to take place with\u00a0no spectators. 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