{"id":23552,"date":"2022-02-18T08:52:02","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T08:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=23552"},"modified":"2022-02-18T08:58:59","modified_gmt":"2022-02-18T08:58:59","slug":"ukraine-the-problem-with-copying-finlands-strict-cold-war-neutrality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/ukraine-the-problem-with-copying-finlands-strict-cold-war-neutrality\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: the problem with copying Finland\u2019s strict cold war neutrality"},"content":{"rendered":"

During the\u00a0tense negotiations<\/a>\u00a0over the Ukraine crisis, the idea of \u201cFinlandizing<\/a>\u201d Ukraine has been suggested as a solution. This idea refers to the way a small or weak country can retain its sovereignty by making some policy decisions \u2013 generally defence and foreign \u2013 subject to considerable influence by a more powerful neighbour.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

It applied originally to the situation Finland found itself in during the cold war when faced with threats from the Soviet Union. Finland enforced a strict neutrality, remaining outside both Nato and the Warsaw Pact. By these means, it avoided invasion or occupation by Soviet forces.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0idea surfaced<\/a>\u00a0when the French president, Emmanuel Macron, was reportedly asked by a reporter in Moscow recently whether Finlandization would work for Ukraine. He replied: \u201cYes, it is one of the options on the table.\u201d He has since denied the report.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has made no secret of its wish to join Nato and the EU, both of which demonstrate its leaning towards the west. If he did indeed suggest Finlandization, Macron and his advisers appear to be proposing that Ukraine would have no choice but to accept Moscow\u2019s control of some of its policies.<\/p>\n

Comparisons can be drawn between this crisis and that of Czechoslovakia in 1938, with Britain and France negotiating over Czechoslovakia in an attempt to avoid war with Germany over its territorial ambitions there. The situation is strikingly similar \u2013 the potential imposition of an agreement on an unwilling state, stripped of the ability to realistically defend itself from an aggressive neighbour.<\/p>\n

The consequences could be similar. What guarantees could be provided by Russia that are acceptable, and more importantly believable, by the west? Unrest by ethnic Russians living in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Georgia to rejoin the motherland would be an obvious next step to further destabilise Nato and extend the crisis beyond the attention span of the western public.<\/p>\n

Accommodation, or appeasement, then becomes the order of the day. The additional implication of such actions is that Ukraine would be further dismembered as regions within it assert independence with Russia\u2019s assistance.<\/p>\n

Bloc party<\/h3>\n

European governments do not want to return to the days of \u201cspheres of influence\u201d \u2013 however large or small. So what does that mean for Nato? Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and under international agreements it can choose to become a member of an organisation if it wishes.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation<\/a>\u00a0was signed in 1997. Both nations agreed to \u201crespect each other\u2019s territorial integrity and reaffirm the inviolability of the borders existing between them\u201d. This was\u00a0terminated by Ukraine in 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Russia maintains a large military force on the border of Ukraine and has deployed troops on\u00a0exercise to Belarus<\/a>. By deploying these forces, Putin knowingly raised the stakes politically and militarily. Russia considers Nato\u2019s eastern expansion as a breach of an agreement. In September 1990, Gorbachev signed the\u00a0Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany<\/a>, which saw the reunified Germany a full sovereign state and Nato member.<\/p>\n

The discussions between the US and Russian Federation following the break-up of the Soviet Union are remembered very differently in Moscow and Washington. Gorbachev\u00a0remembered that<\/a>: \u201cThe Americans promised that Nato wouldn\u2019t move beyond the boundaries of Germany after the Cold War.\u201d The US secretary of state, James Baker, in his account of his discussions with Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze\u00a0reports having stated<\/a>: \u201cThere would, of course, have to be ironclad guarantees that Nato\u2019s jurisdiction or forces would not move eastward.\u201d<\/p>\n

But this assurance was centred around the Soviet fear of a resurgent, and possibly nuclear-armed, Germany. Robert Zoellick, a US State Department official involved in the negotiations says very clearly that\u00a0no formal commitment was made<\/a>\u00a0to limit Nato\u2019s expansion.<\/p>\n

Western divisions<\/h3>\n

According to\u00a0the BBC<\/a>: \u201cA source at the \u00c9lys\u00e9e Palace said Russia had made a commitment not take any new military initiatives to enable a potential deescalation.\u201d This is tantamount to agreeing that Russia is in control of this crisis and will increase or decrease tension at its discretion.<\/p>\n

On February 8, Russia\u2019s defence ministry announced six amphibious landing ships were heading to the Black Sea on exercise. As Putin applies greater pressure on Ukraine, a state he says is historically and culturally one with Russia, the position of Nato and Russia is increasingly polarised. The Russian position is to demand guarantees that Ukraine will not be allowed to join Nato \u2013 a position that both the US and Nato have flatly rejected.<\/p>\n

The US president, Joe Biden, has stated that all nations must have freedom of action when deciding to form or join an alliance, and that Nato has an \u201copen door\u201d policy to any European state that qualifies for membership. Ukraine does not presently qualify because of concerns over corruption, economic and democratic reform, and its inability to contribute to the collective defence of Nato. But Biden has made the US position very clear.<\/p>\n

Europe has been less clear \u2013 eastern European nations are bolstering their military forces and some nations are sending military aid. Meanwhile, Germany\u00a0refuses to sell arms and equipment<\/a>\u00a0to Ukraine and France is discussing a purely political solution. Sanctions against Russia are discussed with varying degrees of enthusiasm in the EU and Nato. It is on this difference in stance that Putin can exert more pressure.<\/p>\n

Russia has manufactured the crisis to intimidate Nato into abandoning Ukraine. Any compromise that leaves Ukraine further exposed or vulnerable will be a loss for Nato and a win for Russia.<\/p>\n

Dr Kenton White is Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations <\/span>at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the\u00a0tense negotiations\u00a0over the Ukraine crisis, the idea of \u201cFinlandizing\u201d Ukraine has been suggested as a solution. 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