{"id":23575,"date":"2022-02-18T16:36:48","date_gmt":"2022-02-18T16:36:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=23575"},"modified":"2022-02-18T16:37:47","modified_gmt":"2022-02-18T16:37:47","slug":"storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/","title":{"rendered":"Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Storm Eunice is in full flow as I write this and has already broken the record for the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/metoffice\/status\/1494640157789728770\">fastest ever gust<\/a>\u00a0recorded in England. Before the wind even really got going here in Reading, where I work as a natural hazard forecaster, I had already watched my wheelie bins fly past my window (I since tied them down).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-23579\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/02\/storm-g3907bd0c5_640.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/02\/storm-g3907bd0c5_640.jpg 640w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/02\/storm-g3907bd0c5_640-300x155.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Comparisons are being made with previous storms, particularly the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/weather\/learn-about\/uk-past-events\/interesting\/1990\/burns-day-storm---25-january-1990---met-office.pdf\">Burns\u2019 Day Storm<\/a>\u201d of January 1990, which killed dozens of people, and the October 1987 \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/case-studies\/great-storm\">Great Storm<\/a>\u201d. Although less intense, Eunice may be meteorologically similar to the 1987 storm, with the chance of a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/will-we-get-stronger-wind-storms-in-a-warmer-climate-177468\">sting jet<\/a>\u201d \u2013 a rare but highly damaging phenomenon caused by a break between the warm and cold fronts in a storm. This allows very fast winds, normally kept high in the atmosphere, to reach the ground and lash the surface like a bullwhip.<\/p>\n<p>In 1987, the BBC weather forecaster Michael Fish was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/av\/uk-19923565\">famously caught out<\/a>\u00a0by the severity of the Great Storm. What has really changed since the late 1980s is the quality of our forecasting and warnings. The steady improvement in weather and climate forecasting has been caused by unimaginably more powerful supercomputers, much better scientific understanding of the earth\u2019s natural processes, and better communication of risks and early warnings.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look at the forecasters\u2019 achievement in the week leading up to Eunice, which hit the UK on Friday 18 February. They had identified \u2013 and even named \u2013 both Eunice and its immediate predecessor Storm Dudley, on the morning of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/press-office\/news\/weather-and-climate\/2022\/two-storms-named\">Monday 14 February<\/a>. At that point, scientists knew the conditions were right to create a storm, but didn\u2019t know exactly how big or where it would go.<\/p>\n<p>By Wednesday, there was enough certainty in the forecasts to issue\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/press-office\/news\/weather-and-climate\/2022\/amber-warnings-in-force-for-storms-dudley-and-eunice\">weather warnings<\/a>, telling people to get ready for possible serious disruption. Remember, this is before the storm existed and hadn\u2019t even\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SimonOKing\/status\/1493849044023660546?s=20&amp;t=a6dVDEh5qOtpb7vjNIjM5Q\">begun to form<\/a>\u00a0out in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Still some uncertainties with <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StormEunice?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StormEunice<\/a> on Friday.  Why?  Quick thread&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>1\u20e3 Eunice hasn&#39;t even formed yet.  From a small disturbance in the atmosphere on Thursday, it&#39;ll undergo explosive cyclogenesis (bomogenesis\/weatherbomb) developing rapidly in 24 hours&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nznJr7I4Ld\">pic.twitter.com\/nznJr7I4Ld<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Simon King (@SimonOKing) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SimonOKing\/status\/1493849044023660546?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<div data-react-class=\"Tweet\" data-react-props=\"{&quot;tweetId&quot;:&quot;1493849044023660546&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\">By Thursday, with 24 hours\u2019 notice, it was clear where the storm would be going and that the winds would be extremely strong. This lead to a red warning \u2013 meaning \u201ctake action now\u201d \u2013 for <\/span><a style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-60417263\">parts of south Wales and south-west England<\/a><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\">. And early on Friday morning, south-east England and London were given red warnings too.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Days before Eunice hit the UK mainland, forecasters knew it would be very dangerous. This was a level of detail and accuracy that was completely missing ahead of the Great Storm, meaning there was no early warning in that case.<\/p>\n<h3>Computers, data, communication<\/h3>\n<p>The improvement in the forecast is partly because of the hugely improved resolution of the supercomputer models. We can now simulate the earth in great detail, in four dimensions (including time). We also just have a better understanding of the science, and how conditions in the sea and air combine to create our weather.<\/p>\n<p>But a very fast computer model can only create a forecast as good as the data you put into it. That\u2019s why our improved array of satellites, aircraft, balloons and good old-fashioned weather stations are critical to getting an accurate picture of what is going on.<\/p>\n<p>The final issue is around communication, which has improved significantly in the past 30 years in the UK, thanks in a great part due to the establishment of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/guides\/severe-weather-advice\">National Severe Weather Warning Service<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 the system that sets of yellow, amber and red warnings.<\/p>\n<p>The more recent naming of storms, which began in 2015, also helps. \u201cDudley\u201d and \u201cEunice\u201d may sound more like a kindly uncle and aunt, but the evidence shows\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/storm-doris-giving-dangerous-weather-a-human-name-makes-us-more-wary-says-research-66859\">naming storms works<\/a>. The Great Storm and Burns\u2019 Day Storm were named not by emergency planners in advance, but by the media afterwards.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I&#39;m not convinced that a storm called Dudley, or indeed one called Eunice, presage a sense of devastation. I think they presage a sense that these storms might offer you a nice cup of tea.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; David Baddiel (@Baddiel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Baddiel\/status\/1493947406643347457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 16, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<div data-react-class=\"Tweet\" data-react-props=\"{&quot;tweetId&quot;:&quot;1493947406643347457&quot;}\">\n<div><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\">This is just one example of how forecasters and authorities need to take into account not just the quality of the science, but also how people respond to it. As we saw during the floods in Germany last summer, the best forecasts in the world are useless <\/span><a style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\" href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/europes-catastrophic-flooding-was-forecast-well-in-advance-what-went-so-wrong-164818\">if people don\u2019t believe them<\/a><span style=\"letter-spacing: 0.08px;\">, or don\u2019t understand how to act to keep themselves safe.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>With Eunice, it has been interesting to see how many local authorities, schools and businesses did almost nothing when the warning was \u201camber\u201d, but then decided to close when it moved to \u201cred\u201d. I\u2019ve also seen people living in areas covered by the amber warning saying, \u201cPhew \u2013 we\u2019ll be OK.\u201d That\u2019s not true \u2013 amber areas can see damage and risk to life just as severe as the red areas.<\/p>\n<p>There is still much more we can do to improve warning systems, but let\u2019s realise how far we have come. For now, the best advice is to take the warnings seriously, don\u2019t take risks, and keep yourself and your family safe.<\/p>\n<p>Hannah Cloke is Professor of Hydrology in the Department for Geography and Environmental Science.<\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed-177487\">The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Storm Eunice is in full flow as I write this and has already broken the record for the\u00a0fastest ever gust\u00a0recorded in England. Before the wind even really got going here&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#50;&#47;&#48;&#50;&#47;&#49;&#56;&#47;&#115;&#116;&#111;&#114;&#109;&#45;&#101;&#117;&#110;&#105;&#99;&#101;&#45;&#104;&#111;&#119;&#45;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#101;&#99;&#97;&#115;&#116;&#101;&#114;&#115;&#45;&#112;&#114;&#101;&#100;&#105;&#99;&#116;&#101;&#100;&#45;&#115;&#117;&#112;&#101;&#114;&#45;&#115;&#116;&#114;&#111;&#110;&#103;&#45;&#119;&#105;&#110;&#100;&#115;&#45;&#100;&#97;&#121;&#115;&#45;&#98;&#101;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#101;&#45;&#105;&#116;&#45;&#101;&#118;&#101;&#110;&#45;&#102;&#111;&#114;&#109;&#101;&#100;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":469,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[1749,942],"class_list":["post-23575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-storms","tag-weather-forecasting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed - Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Storm Eunice is in full flow as I write this and has already broken the record for the\u00a0fastest ever gust\u00a0recorded in England. Before the wind even really got going here...Read More &gt;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theuniversityofreading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-18T16:36:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-18T16:37:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/02\/storm-g3907bd0c5_640.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Donna Walton\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Donna Walton\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Donna Walton\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#\/schema\/person\/ed94c3d9e2aa2dce8ea35fee5b9664bf\"},\"headline\":\"Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-18T16:36:48+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-02-18T16:37:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\"},\"wordCount\":877,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"storms\",\"weather forecasting\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Environment\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/02\/18\/storm-eunice-how-forecasters-predicted-super-strong-winds-days-before-it-even-formed\/\",\"name\":\"Storm Eunice: how forecasters predicted super-strong winds days before it even formed - 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