{"id":23615,"date":"2022-03-04T08:50:15","date_gmt":"2022-03-04T08:50:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=23615"},"modified":"2023-02-23T11:22:09","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T11:22:09","slug":"ukraine-how-putin-used-a-long-proxy-conflict-to-justify-invasion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/03\/04\/ukraine-how-putin-used-a-long-proxy-conflict-to-justify-invasion\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: how Putin used a long proxy conflict to justify invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the early hours of February 24, Russia attacked Ukraine, beginning with a barrage of airstrikes in the country\u2019s eastern regions. Other major cities came under siege within a matter of hours, including Kyiv. Russian president Vladimir Putin threatened catastrophic consequences if any foreign actor interfered in this \u201cspecial military operation<\/a>\u201d, further raising the spectre of war.<\/p>\n

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Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, vowed to resist the invasion, while western leaders condemned the attack and issued a new set of sanctions against Moscow. After two months of increasing tensions, it seems that interstate war has returned to the European continent, with possibly dreadful consequences. But why is this escalation happening now?<\/p>\n

Western intelligence had been warning that a Russian invasion was imminent. But what enabled Russia to escalate was already there: the possibility of renewed fighting in the proxy conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Kyiv\u2019s government.<\/p>\n

The current crisis stems from the civil war which broke out in the\u00a0spring of 2014<\/a>. In the aftermath of the Euromaidan protests, two Russian-speaking regions (Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as the Donbas) rebelled against Kyiv\u2019s central government. Russia\u00a0supported the separatist regions<\/a>\u00a0after occupying and annexing the Crimean peninsula.<\/p>\n

The following year, Russia and Ukraine signed the 2015 Minsk II protocol, allowing for a gradual reintegration of the Donbas into Ukraine with ample autonomy. Since then, the two self-proclaimed republics have not given up their fight to fully secede from Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Rising tensions<\/h3>\n

Over the past two months, relations between Moscow, Kyiv and the west have become increasingly tense. However, the front line in the Donbas has remained mostly silent. Data actually shows fighting in eastern Ukraine has\u00a0decreased since 2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Discussions about the build-up of Russian troops along Ukraine\u2019s border focused more on Russia\u2019s bargain with the west and the issue of Ukraine\u2019s potential membership in Nato, as opposed to the status of the breakaway republics. In short, the international bargaining dimension seemed to have overshadowed the proxy conflict.<\/p>\n

This changed on February 17, when the rebel leaders in the Donbas claimed to be subjected to\u00a0artillery fire<\/a>\u00a0from Ukrainian government forces. The following day, they started evacuating\u00a0ethnic Russian populations<\/a>\u00a0from the areas experiencing air raids. However, evidence later showed that this was, in fact, a\u00a0false flag attack<\/a>, orchestrated purposefully to escalate tensions in the Donbas.<\/p>\n