{"id":23905,"date":"2022-04-13T08:52:03","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T07:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=23905"},"modified":"2023-02-23T10:10:08","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T10:10:08","slug":"ukraine-nato-exercises-a-happy-coincidence-just-in-case-of-escalation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/04\/13\/ukraine-nato-exercises-a-happy-coincidence-just-in-case-of-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: Nato exercises a happy coincidence \u2018just in case\u2019 of escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Military exercises are held regularly by armed forces throughout the world. An exercise can be seen as an act of diplomacy, a direct threat, a demonstration of military capability for deterrence or \u2013 in the case of Nato \u2013 an expression of unity.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

In purely military terms, exercises allow different nations\u2019 armed forces to act in cooperation. They are useful for testing plans for deployment, reinforcement and logistics. New weapon systems and doctrines can be tried out in the field in as close to combat conditions as possible.<\/p>\n

As Nato\u2019s\u00a0Cold Response 2022<\/a>\u00a0exercise takes place in Norway, it may look like Nato is preparing to reinforce its troops already in Europe following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. That is a possibility, but it was not the aim when the exercises were planned last year. Cold weather training is vital for military forces, and Norway has often been\u00a0used by Nato<\/a>\u00a0for this type of preparation. Cold Response 2022 is a continuation of biannual exercises held in Norway since 2006. Publicised in June 2021 and notified to the Russians in January 2022, it was planned before the Russian invasion in February.<\/p>\n

Both Nato and Russia \u2013 or previously the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries \u2013 notify each other of large exercises precisely to avoid them being seen as a threat. The\u00a0Helsinki Accords<\/a>, signed in 1975 under the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), were followed by the\u00a0Document of the Stockholm Conference, 1986<\/a>. This required notification by the host nation of any exercise involving more than 13,000 personnel or 300 battle tanks.<\/p>\n

Since 1990, under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe\u2019s (OSCE)\u00a0Vienna Document<\/a>, exercises must be revealed by their host nations to OSCE member states 42 days in advance if exceeding 9,000 personnel. Observers from OSCE member countries are invited to watch the exercises to maintain transparency and reduce the chances of a mistake.<\/p>\n

Cancelling such an exercise would be seen as unusual \u2013 it would break the cycle and indicate a change in Nato operations. What would be more unusual \u2013 and escalatory \u2013 would be for the troops involved in the exercise to remain in Norway once the exercise is over. Some of the forces involved, such as Nato\u2019s Maritime High Readiness Force, are intended for rapid response. So while this exercise is planned, circumstances make it serendipitous for Nato if it wants to respond to Ukraine in a firmer way. The alliance has a large numerical and qualitative advantage. What is less certain is the political willingness to climb the escalatory ladder.<\/p>\n

Exercises as cover<\/h3>\n

Nato has made it very clear that the exercise is not a response to the\u00a0Russian invasion of Ukraine<\/a>. But the use of exercises to cover preparations for a military intervention is not new. The Soviet Union used exercises to cloak its preparation for the\u00a0invasion of Czechoslovakia<\/a>\u00a0in 1968. And Russia and Belarus\u00a0held military \u201cdrills\u201d<\/a>\u00a0prior to the invasion of Ukraine in February.<\/p>\n

These followed on from\u00a0Zapad-21<\/a>, a Russian and Belarusian military exercise held in Belarus and the Western Military District of Russia, in September 2021. Russia also held naval exercises in the\u00a0Black Sea and Sea of Azov<\/a>, as well as off the Irish coast, in February 2022. This caused severe disruption to commercial shipping in the Black Sea.<\/p>\n

In response to the Russian \u201cdrills\u201d in February 2022, Ukraine\u00a0began its own \u201cdrills\u201d<\/a>. This demonstrated how exercises in a period of tension can lead to an escalatory spiral. In this instance, though, the Ukrainians were right to mobilise their forces, even partially.<\/p>\n

New cold war<\/h3>\n

During the cold war, Nato exercises were held regularly to test the speed at which reinforcements could be moved onto the continent\u00a0from North America and Britain<\/a>. The US part was known as\u00a0REFORGER (Reinforcement or Return of Forces in (or to) Germany)<\/a>\u00a0and military equipment was kept in storage in Europe, ready for the personnel to arrive and prepare for war.<\/p>\n

In 2020,\u00a0Exercise Defender was undertaken<\/a>\u00a0for a similar purpose by the US, with Nato involvement. Since 2014, the US has kept an armoured brigade combat team and a combat aviation brigade in Europe. There is another exercise currently active in Lithuania \u2013 Rising Griffin \u2013\u00a0with more Nato exercises to come<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The problem with reinforcing Europe from Britain and North America is the Atlantic and English Channel. The sea and air routes are easily interdicted by enemy submarines and aircraft \u2013 and Russia still has this capability. Action against the movement of troops would delay any reinforcement and result in a serious loss of life.<\/p>\n

If Nato leaders agreed to keep the troops in Europe after the exercise this would be a clear message to Vladimir Putin. The Russian government\u2019s rhetoric regarding Ukraine has\u00a0escalated recently.<\/a><\/p>\n

Putin may view the exercises as having a similar motive to Zapad-21, which he used to prepare his own forces for the Ukraine invasion. Nato actions \u2013 and certainly the exercise \u2013 will be used by the Russian media as proof of the alliance\u2019s aggressive intent. Propaganda like that might mean Nato has nothing to lose and everything to gain by keeping some of its troops in Europe, or at least at higher readiness if needed.<\/p>\n

Dr Kenton White is Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations\u00a0<\/span>at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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