{"id":23999,"date":"2022-05-10T08:52:03","date_gmt":"2022-05-10T07:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=23999"},"modified":"2023-02-23T09:44:35","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T09:44:35","slug":"ukraine-boosting-european-defence-spending-now-wont-make-up-for-decades-of-underinvestment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/05\/10\/ukraine-boosting-european-defence-spending-now-wont-make-up-for-decades-of-underinvestment\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine: boosting European defence spending now won\u2019t make up for decades of underinvestment"},"content":{"rendered":"

The west has to dramatically \u201creboot\u201d its approach to dealing with aggressors in the wake of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, according to UK foreign secretary Liz Truss. \u201cGeopolitics is back\u201d,\u00a0she told an audience at the Mansion House<\/a>\u00a0in London recently in what has been reported as a major foreign policy speech. \u201cWe must be assertive. Aggressors are looking at what has happened in Ukraine. We need to make sure that they get the right message.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Nato members appear to be on board with this in the wake of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, and many countries now plan to spend more on their defence budgets. But decades of under-investment in defence have left the west vulnerable. And the billions of dollars of military aid some of these countries have already sent to Ukraine highlights many of the problems.<\/p>\n

Across Nato, defence spending is now\u00a0on the rise<\/a>. In the immediate wake of the invasion of Ukraine the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced a \u20ac100 billion fund to upgrade the country\u2019s armed forces and pledged to maintain a defence budget of 2% of GDP in future. Denmark says it\u00a0will achieve the 2% goal by 2033<\/a>, after having historically spent far below the Nato average on its defence.<\/p>\n

Sweden and Finland, currently discussing whether they should join Nato, are also increasing their spending on defence. Finland\u2019s defence budget was around\u00a01.5% GDP in 2020<\/a>, but the government announced a one-time injection of \u20ac2 billion (\u00a31.7 billion), or 70% of the existing budget, following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Sweden has announced its intention to\u00a0reach the 2% target<\/a>\u00a0as soon as it can.<\/p>\n

Decades of under-investment<\/h3>\n

Truss said: \u201cWe are correcting a generation of under-investment.\u201d But it\u2019s more than a generation as far as Nato more broadly is concerned. Spending has been consistently cut despite warnings.<\/p>\n

In 2018, the then US president, Donald Trump, commented that European members of Nato were\u00a0not spending enough on defence<\/a>\u00a0and suggested that the US\u00a0might leave the alliance<\/a>. But the US has\u00a0for decades<\/a>\u00a0felt that Europe\u2019s Nato members do not carry enough of the burden for protecting Europe, as it spends\u00a0much more on defence<\/a>\u00a0as a percentage of GDP than they do.<\/p>\n

Since 2014, Nato has specified that\u00a0members must spend 2% of GDP on defence<\/a>. Truss said in her speech that this must be a floor rather than a ceiling. That will be difficult for some Nato nations to swallow. Most were\u00a0significantly below the 2% target<\/a>\u00a0in 2019.<\/p>\n

In the UK,\u00a0defence spending fell<\/a>\u00a0from just over 6% of GDP in 1955 to 4.1% in 1990. This reduction was during periods of heightened tension in the cold war. Other countries contributed even less. During the 1970s and 1980s, several US and British units were\u00a0earmarked for deployment to Denmark<\/a>\u00a0because Nato command knew that its forces were inadequate for the task even of self-defence.<\/p>\n

The fall of the Soviet Union and the associated peace dividend led most western nations to cut defence spending\u00a0almost in half<\/a>. The UK\u00a0defence budget fell<\/a>\u00a0further to 2.25% in 2004, and remained at 2.1% between 2015 and 2019 \u2013 after Ukraine had been invaded and Crimea annexed.<\/p>\n

Indeed, the 2% spend for Britain was arguably only reached after some \u201ccreative accounting<\/a>\u201d in the Ministry of Defence\u2019s budget. This evidence throws doubt on Truss\u2019 comment that, \u201cWe\u2019ve shown that we\u2019re prepared to prioritise security and respect for sovereignty over short-term economic gain.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Come-as-you-are\u2019 wars<\/h3>\n

To save money, western governments have cut defence spending and depended on limited numbers of weapon systems and military equipment. This makes sense to most people in peacetime. But it does mean that any large conflict needs to be quickly won before the supply of ammunition runs out, or all the weapon systems wear out or are destroyed.<\/p>\n

We see\u00a0discussion among military commentators<\/a>\u00a0about the number of main battle tank (MBT) losses the Russian have sustained, and whether they can continue operations at this rate and replace their losses. But the same iron laws of demand and supply apply to Nato equipment and its manufacture.<\/p>\n

Defence manufacturer Raytheon\u00a0reports it cannot ramp up production<\/a>\u00a0because of a very limited stock of material for its Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. While Stingers are old technology, the problem will also be encountered with newer weapon systems.<\/p>\n

The most talked-about weapons, next generation light anti-tank weapons (NLAWs), were developed by the Swedish company Saab in a joint venture between the Swedish and British defence ministries. Although overall production figures are not public, the initial NLAW project in the British Army was for an\u00a0acquisition of 14,002 units<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The US has sent\u00a07,000 Javelin antitank guided missiles (ATGMs)<\/a>\u00a0to Ukraine. This is one-third of US stocks of the missile. While using up legacy stocks of missiles allows Nato members to freshen their stockpiles with the latest versions, use is outstripping production. Under-investment and the false logic of preparing for a\u00a0\u201ccome-as-you-are\u201d war<\/a>\u00a0has come home to roost.<\/p>\n

In concluding her speech, Truss said: \u201cWe thought that we\u2019d learned the lessons of history and that the march of progress would continue unchallenged. We were wrong.\u201d How much will the west learn from the invasion of Ukraine \u2013 and, more importantly, will the lessons of history stick this time? There is no evidence to suggest they will.<\/p>\n

Dr Kenton White is Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations\u00a0<\/span>at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The west has to dramatically \u201creboot\u201d its approach to dealing with aggressors in the wake of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, according to UK foreign secretary Liz Truss. \u201cGeopolitics is back\u201d,\u00a0she…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":469,"featured_media":26792,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2055,1983,1982],"class_list":["post-23999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-defence-spending","tag-nato","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUkraine: boosting European defence spending now won\u2019t make up for decades of 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