{"id":24168,"date":"2022-06-22T16:55:42","date_gmt":"2022-06-22T15:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=24168"},"modified":"2023-02-15T14:26:36","modified_gmt":"2023-02-15T14:26:36","slug":"crypto-crash-market-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto crash: market volatility is testing investors will but crypto-enthusiasts still see a future for the asset class"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, remains a bellweather for the sector. It hit an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/326707\/bitcoin-price-index\/\">all-time high<\/a>\u00a0of more than US$68,000 (\u00a355,600) in November 2021, when the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/06\/15\/bitcoin-has-lost-more-than-50percent-of-its-value-this-year-what-to-know.html\">overall value<\/a> of the cryptocurrency market was close to US$3 trillion. In the months since, however, most major cryptocurrencies have fallen by more 70% and bitcoin itself has dropped below US$18,000.\u00a0Is this just another crash in the volatile cryptocurrency market, or is this the beginning of the end for this alternative asset class?<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24169\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24169\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-24169\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920-1024x769.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920-1024x769.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920-1536x1153.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24169\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image by MichaelWuensch from Pixabay<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><!--more-->When bitcoin was first introduced in early 2009, it was a new type of asset. While trading was thin initially, price appreciation drove its value to nearly US$20,000 in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2017\/12\/29\/from-900-to-20000-bitcoins-historic-2017-price-run-revisited\/\">late 2017<\/a>. This happened as more retail investors were drawn to cryptocurrencies as a supposed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1057521918307622?casa_token=WBgIQBZKIEsAAAAA:nBaHn8TXmikh2P-fkSt1JvFJyKOW2JGhm7BO9WgppxNgc9UeaKj517cunUdUmLYvE8Jz-1qJgl-q\">hedge or safe-haven<\/a>\u00a0versus other asset classes.<\/p>\n<p>And as the market grew, so too did the range of investment opportunities. Futures and options \u2013 financial contracts to buy or sell an asset or security at a specific price or date \u2013 are a common hedging tool used in other markets such as oil or the stock market. In December 2017, the first bitcoin futures on a regulated exchange were\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/2017\/dec\/11\/bitcoin-makes-debut-futures-market-cboe-chicago-board-options-exchange#:%7E:text=The%20first%2Dever%20bitcoin%20future,the%20Chicago%20Board%20Options%20Exchange.\">listed<\/a>\u00a0by the Chicago Board Options Exchange. Bitcoin options followed on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/media-room\/press-releases\/2019\/11\/12\/cme_group_announcesjan132020launchforbitcoinoptions.html\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange<\/a>\u00a0in January 2020. This period of expansion was topped by the launch of the first\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/bitcoin-why-its-value-has-rocketed-once-again-170396\">bitcoin exchange-traded fund<\/a> (ETF) in October 2021, providing investors with exposure to bitcoin without having to buy it on a crypto exchange.<\/p>\n<h3>Growing crypto acceptance<\/h3>\n<p>At the same time, the traditional financial sector was becoming increasingly accepting of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fidelitydigitalassets.com\/research-and-insights\/fidelity-digital-assets-2021-institutional-investor-digital-assets-study\">2021 study<\/a>\u00a0of institutional investors found seven in 10 expected to buy or invest in digital assets in the future. This combination of maturity and acceptance, however, also increased the correlation between the stock market and cryptocurrencies, leading to a decline in their\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1544612320304244\">safe-haven<\/a>\u00a0properties.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0165176518300041?casa_token=ek-p2N0GrCcAAAAA:db-abkf9sQz-sm746gCnLil9CFr__TBqcJcQtOk7pVstb5yD0K4xmZBP8bVkaRhpVEDRJonR_A\">fairly disconnected<\/a>\u00a0from traditional financial markets in its early days. But as it became \u201cjust another asset\u201d, the sector\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S1544612322002380\">began to be affected<\/a>\u00a0by the same macroeconomic factors that influence traditional markets. The US Federal Reserve\u2019s decision to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/nextadvisor\/banking\/savings\/latest-fed-rate-hike-silver-lining-for-savers\/\">raise interest rates<\/a>\u00a0by 0.75% in June to combat growing inflation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the subsequent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/oil-why-higher-prices-will-complicate-the-energy-transition-157199\">rise in oil prices<\/a>\u00a0have all acted as a drag on cryptocurrencies in recent months. Moves to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/nextadvisor\/investing\/cryptocurrency\/biden-executive-order-crypto-expert-reaction\/\">regulate the sector<\/a>\u00a0have also had an impact.<\/p>\n<p>But it isn\u2019t only macroeconomic factors that have caused this crypto downturn. In May and June this year, stablecoin\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/cryptocurrencies-why-theyve-crashed-and-what-it-could-mean-for-their-future-183048\">values plummetted<\/a>, major cryptocurrency exchange Binance paused bitcoin withdrawals due to a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/06\/13\/binance-pauses-bitcoin-withdrawals-changpeng-cz-zhao\/\">\u201cstuck transaction\u201d<\/a>, and lending platform Celsius Network\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/crypto-firm-celsius-pauses-all-transfers-withdrawals-between-accounts-2022-06-13\/\">froze withdrawals and transfers<\/a>\u00a0citing \u201cextreme\u201d market conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Amid this disruption, users of public blockchain platform Solana have reportedly voted to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/tech\/2022\/06\/19\/solana-defi-platform-votes-to-control-whale-account-in-bid-to-avoid-liquidation-chaos\/\">temporarily take control<\/a>\u00a0of a so-called \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/bitcoin-whale.asp\">whale<\/a>\u201d account \u2013 the platform\u2019s largest at around US$20 million \u2013 to stop the account owner liquidating its positions and driving prices down even further.<\/p>\n<p>Together, these factors have caused investor confidence to drain from the sector. The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index<\/a>\u00a0is almost at an all-time-low of 9\/100, which indicates \u201cextreme fear\u201d. The index was at 75\/100 when bitcoin reached its November 2021 high.<\/p>\n<h3>The crypto outlook<\/h3>\n<p>So what does the future hold for this alternative asset class? As can only be expected in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, the range of views is extreme. Some see this market correction as a great time to \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/uk\/advisor\/investing\/cryptocurrency\/crypto-market-crash-is-it-the-right-time-to-buy-the-dip\/\">buy the dip<\/a>\u201d. Others believe this is the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-crypto-party-is-over-11655524807\">end of the party<\/a>\u00a0for cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<p>Resolute bitcoiners can always find positive signs in the market and many use on-chain metrics (trading signals based on data gleaned from public blockchain transactions) to determine good times to buy. Recently, popular metrics including market value to realised value (MVRV \u2013 a ratio showing current versus average coin prices)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-critics-say-btc-price-is-going-to-0-this-time-but-these-3-signals-suggest-otherwise\">suggest<\/a>\u00a0bitcoin is about to start an accumulation period based on past history. On the other hand, this may be an indication of confirmation bias as investors search for signals that confirm their beliefs.<\/p>\n<p>Others argue this is just one more instance in a long line of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1544612317307419\">bursting cryptocurrency bubbles<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a typical crypto market cycle. Comparisons with the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2022\/06\/13\/bitcoin-crashes-15percent-celsius-halts-withdrawals-and-cryptos-dot-com-bubble-cnbc-crypto-world.html\">dotcom crash<\/a>\u00a0of 2000 have been rife in the market, but crypto enthusiasts argue the basic premise of dotcom stocks was correct \u2013 in that the internet\u00a0<em>was<\/em>\u00a0the future. They believe the same is true of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/davidbirch\/2022\/06\/19\/if-the-crypto-crash-is-another-tulip-bubble-that-is-really-good-news\/?sh=34d70a6951f1\">bitcoin<\/a>, predicting that the sector will recover.<\/p>\n<p>Economists have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.ie\/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=muI3AQAAMAAJ&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA13&amp;dq=extraordinary+popular+delusions&amp;ots=XrXWcBF8Pu&amp;sig=Vg_YVS_p3WuLqXx4_SUk3F0mgjo&amp;redir_esc=y#v=onepage&amp;q=extraordinary%20popular%20delusions&amp;f=false\">studied bubbles for centuries<\/a>, however, and evidence shows many assets never recover nominal price highs after the market bubble bursts. Some of these economists, including former US secretary of labor Robert Reich,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/technology\/commentisfree\/2022\/jun\/19\/the-crypto-crash-all-ponzi-schemes-topple-eventually\">have equated<\/a>\u00a0cryptocurrencies to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investor.gov\/protect-your-investments\/fraud\/types-fraud\/ponzi-scheme\">Ponzi schemes<\/a>\u00a0that, unless regulated, will go the way of all such schemes and eventually collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Certainly, the vision of cryptocurrencies as a decentralised asset available on a peer-to-peer network with no barriers to entry goes against recent actions such as the freezing of withdrawals by some platforms. These moves will not go down well with crypto-enthusiasts. Further, the increased correlation of cryptocurrencies to other asset classes is diminishing their value as a diversification tool, while growing interest in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0040162522002414\">Central Bank Digital Currencies<\/a>\u00a0threatens to further erode crypto\u2019s attractiveness to its core investors.<\/p>\n<p>Cryptocurrencies also face\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-022-00927-5\">challenges<\/a>\u00a0around\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.climate.columbia.edu\/2022\/05\/04\/cryptocurrency-energy\/#:%7E:text=But%20crypto%20has%20a%20dirty,of%20Argentina%2C%20population%2045%20million.\">energy use<\/a>, privacy and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/online.maryville.edu\/blog\/blockchain-and-bitcoin-cyber-security-risks\/\">security<\/a>. It is not clear if these issues can be solved without eroding the elements that made cryptocurrencies popular in the first place. The recent US launch of a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/06\/18\/bitcoin-price-drops-below-18600-as-sell-off-accelerates.html\">short Bitcoin ETF<\/a>, which enables investors to gain from declines in the bitcoin price, will allow investors to hedge their positions and trade against bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>Investing in cryptocurrencies is like riding a rollercoaster with large appreciations followed by sudden dips. Volatility is endemic, bubbles and crashes are commonplace, and there are divisive opinions on environmental, ethical and social benefits. The major correction in this market has tested the will of even the most avid crypto-enthusiast. Buckle up because this story is not over yet.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.icmacentre.ac.uk\/people\/dr-andrew-urquhart\">Andrew Urquhart<\/a> (Professor of Finance &amp; Financial Technology, Henley Business School) and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcd.ie\/business\/people\/BLUCEY\/\">Brian Lucey<\/a> (Professor of International Finance and Commodities, Trinity College Dublin). This article was previously published in <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/crypto-crash-market-volatility-is-testing-investor-will-but-crypto-enthusiasts-still-see-a-future-for-the-asset-class-185339\">The Conversation<\/a> and is republished here under a Creative Commons Licence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, remains a bellweather for the sector. It hit an\u00a0all-time high\u00a0of more than US$68,000 (\u00a355,600) in November 2021, when the\u00a0overall value of the cryptocurrency market was close&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#50;&#47;&#48;&#54;&#47;&#50;&#50;&#47;&#99;&#114;&#121;&#112;&#116;&#111;&#45;&#99;&#114;&#97;&#115;&#104;&#45;&#109;&#97;&#114;&#107;&#101;&#116;&#45;&#118;&#111;&#108;&#97;&#116;&#105;&#108;&#105;&#116;&#121;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":143,"featured_media":24169,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[1805,1882,1160,2075],"class_list":["post-24168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-financial-markets","tag-market-crash"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Crypto crash: market volatility is testing investors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crypto crash: market volatility is testing investors\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, remains a bellweather for the sector. It hit an\u00a0all-time high\u00a0of more than US$68,000 (\u00a355,600) in November 2021, when the\u00a0overall value of the cryptocurrency market was close...Read More &gt;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theuniversityofreading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-22T15:55:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-02-15T14:26:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2022\/06\/bitcoin-2008262_1920.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1441\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Caroline Knowles\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Caroline Knowles\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Caroline Knowles\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#\/schema\/person\/52eb219d2de7c8acd2dcbbf5f57de6e7\"},\"headline\":\"Crypto crash: market volatility is testing investors will but crypto-enthusiasts still see a future for the asset class\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-06-22T15:55:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-02-15T14:26:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/06\/22\/crypto-crash-market-volatility\/\"},\"wordCount\":1039,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"bitcoin\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"financial markets\",\"Market crash\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Prosperity &amp; 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