{"id":24402,"date":"2022-08-17T08:30:21","date_gmt":"2022-08-17T07:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=24402"},"modified":"2023-02-07T12:43:49","modified_gmt":"2023-02-07T12:43:49","slug":"britains-notoriously-wet-and-cold-climate-is-changing-you-wont-like-what-replaces-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2022\/08\/17\/britains-notoriously-wet-and-cold-climate-is-changing-you-wont-like-what-replaces-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Britain\u2019s notoriously wet and cold climate is changing \u2013 you won\u2019t like what replaces it"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UK had the driest start to a year since the 1970s in 2022, with large parts of southern England receiving\u00a0less than 50%<\/a>\u00a0of their normal winter rainfall. On top of that, southern England recently received just 17% of its average rainfall for July, in what was the country\u2019s\u00a0driest since 1935<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Aerial<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

How the atmosphere circulates moisture is incredibly complex and so there is huge variability in rainfall from year to year. This makes it very difficult to conclude trends from past observations.<\/p>\n

Temperature trends, meanwhile, are more straightforward: increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have raised average temperatures and made dry periods in Britain drier, as hotter weather evaporates more water.\u00a0Short and intense rainfall<\/a>, which does not replenish parched soils, rivers and aquifers as well as gentler, longer showers, is also increasingly common as warmer air can hold more moisture.<\/p>\n

Although some water companies have\u00a0enacted hosepipe bans<\/a>\u00a0to conserve water in the worst-affected areas, the Environment Agency has yet to declare an official water supply drought. Reservoir levels were healthy entering 2022, having been replenished in the preceding autumn, but some in southwest England are now\u00a0less than half full<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Farmers across southeast England have been reeling from an\u00a0agricultural drought<\/a>\u00a0(when levels of moisture in the soil are low enough to affect crop production) since spring. Warmer than average summer temperatures, plus a heatwave during which temperatures\u00a0reached 40\u00b0C<\/a>\u00a0for the first time in the UK, have further dried out the soil.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, many rivers across southern England are\u00a0exceptionally low<\/a>. The situation could significantly worsen if a dry autumn or winter follows.<\/p>\n

Rivers with underlying acquifiers in southern England (such as\u00a0chalk streams<\/a>) can take months to respond to changes in rainfall.\u00a0Projections<\/a>\u00a0by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology suggest that flows will remain below average in these groundwater-fed rivers over autumn and potentially beyond.<\/p>\n

Yet, the UK retains its reputation for being a rainy country. A survey titled\u00a0The Great British Rain Paradox<\/a>\u00a0conducted in 2020 showed that 77% of the British public agreed with this sentiment. But with most of the UK forecast to have hotter and drier summers, it\u2019s no longer as simple as that.<\/p>\n

The Great British rain paradox<\/h3>\n

The UK has experienced\u00a0regular periods of drought<\/a>\u00a0in the past, including the last official drought in 2018-19. The National Infrastructure Commission, which advises the government, warned then that the UK must do more to\u00a0prepare for water shortages<\/a>. The Environment Agency estimates that water demand may outstrip supply across southern England in as short a timescale as\u00a020 years<\/a>\u00a0if the country does not adapt to its new climate by building reservoirs and desalination plants.<\/p>\n

So what does that new climate look like? The latest set of\u00a0simulations<\/a>\u00a0project hotter and drier summers plus warmer and wetter winters, with larger changes in summer compared to winter rainfall.<\/p>\n

Prolonged periods of below average\u00a0river<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0groundwater<\/a>\u00a0levels are projected to become more severe. Summer droughts are likely to affect the entire country, while multi-year droughts are more likely across southern England.<\/p>\n

There will be an increased risk of\u00a0cascading hazards<\/a>\u00a0in future too, such as when a flood quickly follows a drought, spoiling crops and damaging infrastructure. Record rainfall in\u00a0spring 2012<\/a>\u00a0suddenly ended a drought which had begun in 2010, causing\u00a0flash floods<\/a>\u00a0which affected more than 4,000 properties.<\/p>\n

How low rivers and public water supplies recede each summer will depend on rainfall in autumn and spring. There is less agreement between climate model simulations on how rainfall patterns will change in these seasons, which is when aquifers are usually replenished. Water demand will add an additional strain on these sources as the population grows, particularly as severe heatwaves are set to become\u00a0much more common<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Severe droughts in the UK\u2019s past have always included\u00a0one or more dry winters<\/a>, such as\u00a01975-76<\/a>,\u00a01988-93<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a02010-12<\/a>. The severity of future droughts will be determined by how sequences of dry seasons interact.<\/p>\n

Research<\/a>\u00a0has shown that the probability of a dry winter and spring being followed by an extremely hot summer, like the one the UK is experiencing in 2022, is now at least five times more likely compared with the 1970s. A drier than average winter is much more likely to be followed by a dry summer too.<\/p>\n

Although winters are projected to become wetter on average, scientists aren\u2019t sure how the sequencing of dry seasons is changing. This is due to\u00a0uncertainty<\/a>\u00a0around the influence of climate change on atmospheric circulation, such as the position and strength of\u00a0the jet stream<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a major driver of heatwaves and dry weather in the UK.<\/p>\n

Where the rain ends up falling also matters. The northwest of the UK, including Northern Ireland, receives more rain than the southeast. So a wet winter nationally could still mean drier than average conditions in the southeast.<\/p>\n

Water companies cannot discount the possibility of consecutive dry winters and the potential for three consecutive dry winters are particular concern. This was narrowly avoided in the 2010-2012 drought, but\u00a0research<\/a>\u00a0has revealed that continued dry conditions in 2012 would have meant critically low river flows across southern England.<\/p>\n

Water companies must develop\u00a0regional plans<\/a>\u00a0for transferring water to meet public need and boost efficiency in homes and businesses through\u00a0smart metering<\/a>\u00a0and fixing\u00a0leaky pipes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To prepare for a drier future, the UK must reckon with the ways drought will make\u00a0food production<\/a>,\u00a0biodiversity conservation<\/a>\u00a0and even\u00a0electricity generation<\/a>\u00a0(as a result of cooling water shortages and reduced hydro-electricity) more difficult. Droughts will have major implications for the country\u2019s national food strategy, its nature recovery targets and \u2013 critically \u2013 progress towards net zero emissions, which will be essential for bringing extreme weather under control.<\/p>\n

Update<\/b>: Since the article above was written, the National Drought Group for England, chaired by the Environment Agency, has declared an\u00a0official drought<\/a>\u00a0for large parts of Southern England. The change from \u201cprolonged dry weather\u201c to \u201cdrought \u201c status allows water companies to increase actions to manage water supplies according to their published drought plans. The latest\u00a0hydrological summary<\/a>\u00a0for July published by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology showed that end-of-July reservoir stocks for England and Wales are the lowest on record since 1990 and only exceptional autumn rainfall will be able to return river flows to normal conditions.<\/p>\n

Wilson Chan<\/a> is a <\/span>PhD Researcher in Climate Change and Droughts at the University of Reading. Nigel Arnell<\/a> is <\/span>Professor of Climate Change Science and Director of the Walker Institute at the University of Reading. Ted Shepherd<\/a> is <\/span>Grantham Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UK had the driest start to a year since the 1970s in 2022, with large parts of southern England receiving\u00a0less than 50%\u00a0of their normal winter rainfall. 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