{"id":26914,"date":"2023-02-27T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=26914"},"modified":"2023-02-27T17:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-27T17:00:00","slug":"why-the-uk-has-only-had-one-named-storm-so-far-this-winter-an-expert-explains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/02\/27\/why-the-uk-has-only-had-one-named-storm-so-far-this-winter-an-expert-explains\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the UK has only had one named storm so far this winter \u2013 an expert explains"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/press-office\/news\/weather-and-climate\/2023\/storm-otto-named-by-danish-met-service#:%7E:text=A%20low%2Dpressure%20system%20which,75mph%20to%20some%20northern%20areas.\">Storm Otto<\/a>, which was named by the Danish Meteorological Institute, hit Scotland and north-east England last Friday (February 17 2023) with wind gusts of over 80mph, disrupting power to 61,000 homes.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-26935 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1-1024x640.jpg\" alt=\"Stormy seas in Scotland\" width=\"640\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1-1536x960.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/raphael-rychetsky-sA7mUlqCKuc-unsplash-1-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Otto was the first named storm of the UK\u2019s current winter storm season and the first to hit the country\u2019s shores since\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/weather\/learn-about\/uk-past-events\/interesting\/2022\/2022_01_storms_dudley_eunice_franklin_r1.pdf\">storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin<\/a>\u00a0last February. Over the course of a week, these three storms barrelled in from the North Atlantic causing wind and flood damage worth over\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.perils.org\/losses\">\u20ac3.7 billion (\u00a33.2 billion) in insured losses<\/a>\u00a0across Europe.<\/p>\n<p>The UK has seen only a few notable instances of stormy weather so far this winter. For example, heavy rainfall in the first few weeks of January led to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.itv.com\/news\/westcountry\/2023-01-19\/pictures-show-scale-of-flooding-on-somerset-levels\">flooding on the Somerset Levels<\/a>. But this storm was not intense enough to be named. This happens only when a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/warnings-and-advice\/uk-storm-centre\/index\">storm has the potential<\/a>\u00a0to be severe enough to cause an amber or red warning.<\/p>\n<p>But storms are a common feature of winters in the UK. Since the current naming scheme started in 2016, between five and ten named storms have hit the UK each winter. So what\u2019s been going on with the weather this year and why did the UK wait such a long time between named storms?<\/p>\n<h2>Variable UK weather<\/h2>\n<p>Chance can always play a role, particularly in the case of UK weather.<\/p>\n<p>A narrow band of strong winds in the upper atmosphere, known as the jet stream, steers storms that originate over the North Atlantic towards Europe and the UK. But the jet stream itself is naturally very variable and can shift in position and strength. This can cause the UK\u2019s weather to vary a lot from year to year.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"What is the jet stream and how does it affect the weather?\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Lg91eowtfbw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The UK has therefore gone long periods without large storms before. For example, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk\/\">winter of 1985-86<\/a>\u00a0was relatively quiet and was marked by storms at either end of the season with only one strong storm in January.<\/p>\n<h3>La Ni\u00f1a conditions<\/h3>\n<p>A global weather phenomenon called La Ni\u00f1a is also likely to have contributed to this year\u2019s weather. La Ni\u00f1a is one phase of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/enso\/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell\">El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation<\/a>\u00a0and is characterised by relatively cool sea surface temperatures in tropical areas of the Pacific. This winter, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/iri.columbia.edu\/our-expertise\/climate\/forecasts\/enso\/current\/\">nearly 1\u2103 cooler<\/a>\u00a0than average.<\/p>\n<p>La Ni\u00f1a can influence the weather experienced in the northern hemisphere. Cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific shift the position of rainfall in the tropics. These changes then propagate into the mid-latitudes, almost like ripples on a pond, and influence the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_26932\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-26932\" style=\"width: 720px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-26932 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/ENSO-states-viz.jpg\" alt=\"These global maps centred on the Pacific Ocean show patterns of sea surface temperature during El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a episodes. The colours along the equator show areas that are warmer or cooler than the long-term average.\" width=\"720\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/ENSO-states-viz.jpg 720w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/02\/ENSO-states-viz-300x183.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-26932\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific swing between being relatively warm (El Ni\u00f1o) and cool (La Ni\u00f1a). Image: climate.gov<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The impact of La Ni\u00f1a on weather in the North Atlantic is different in early and late winter.<\/p>\n<p>Early in the season, La Ni\u00f1a tends to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/journals.ametsoc.org\/view\/journals\/clim\/31\/11\/jcli-d-17-0716.1.xml\">shift the jet stream to the south<\/a>, steering storms that would normally hit the UK towards southern Europe. This may partly explain the bouts of stormy weather that brought flooding to Portugal, Spain and Italy in November and December of 2022. On December 7,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.efas.eu\/en\/news\/floods-portugal-and-spain-december-2022\">flash flooding<\/a>\u00a0swept through the streets of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal, after 82.3mm of rain fell in 24 hours.<\/p>\n<h2>Sudden stratospheric warming<\/h2>\n<p>Later in the winter season, La Ni\u00f1a tends to shift the jet stream back towards the north and should bring stormier weather to the UK. During a typical winter, cooling air causes a vortex of westerly winds to form in the stratosphere, 10-50km above the Arctic.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/atmosphere\/polar-vortex#:%7E:text=What%20is%20the%20Polar%20Vortex,about%20it%20for%20many%20years.\">stratospheric polar vortex<\/a>, as it is called, remains remarkably stable most winters. But some years, the polar vortex slows and breaks up suddenly, causing the stratospheric air over the Arctic to warm rapidly. Called a sudden stratospheric warming, such an event has been occurring since\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/blog.metoffice.gov.uk\/2023\/02\/07\/are-we-expecting-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming\/\">mid-February<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>These\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/types-of-weather\/wind\/sudden-stratospheric-warming\">sudden stratospheric warmings<\/a>, and the rapid slow down of the polar vortex, causes the North Atlantic jet stream below to slow down and meander. In some cases, sudden stratospheric warming can create a large area of high pressure over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia, bringing a spell of dry weather to northern Europe. This happened following the last\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rmets.org\/metmatters\/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warmings-and-beast-east\">sudden stratospheric warming<\/a>\u00a0event in January 2021.<\/p>\n<p>But the effect of a sudden stratospheric warming on the UK\u2019s weather can vary. The European blocking associated with sudden stratospheric warming can sometimes bring in freezing air from Europe, increasing the risk of snow. This was the case in late February 2018, where a sudden stratospheric warming drew winds from the Eurasian continent, causing storms and severe snowfall to affect much of the UK \u2013 known as the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rmets.org\/metmatters\/beast-east-bites-uk\">\u201cbeast from the east\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Although the UK might expect some colder weather in the next few weeks, there is no indication in current weather forecasts that this year\u2019s sudden stratospheric warming will lead to the extreme cold weather seen in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>This winter has been less stormy than usual. Yet, the UK relies on rain from North Atlantic storms to refill its rivers, reservoirs and aquifers. This is particularly important this year given last year\u2019s exceptionally hot and dry summer that lead to drought conditions in much of the UK.<\/p>\n<p>Despite only having one named storm,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/1136621\/Monthly_water_situation_report_for_England_January_2023.pdf\">rainfall across most of the UK<\/a>\u00a0has fortunately been around or above average since October. This has helped to replenish water resources. But even then,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/one-hot-dry-spell-away-from-drought-returning-this-summer-national-drought-group-warns\">East Anglia and Cornwall<\/a>\u00a0remain in drought. So to top up the UK\u2019s water resources and banish the spectre of a 2023 drought, a few more moderate storms over the next few months would be very welcome.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fn author-name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/meteorology\/people\/len-shaffrey\/\">Len Shaffrey<\/a> is a Professor of Climate Science at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading. This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-the-uk-has-only-had-one-named-storm-so-far-this-winter-an-expert-explains-200364\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons licence.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Storm Otto, which was named by the Danish Meteorological Institute, hit Scotland and north-east England last Friday (February 17 2023) with wind gusts of over 80mph, disrupting power to 61,000&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#51;&#47;&#48;&#50;&#47;&#50;&#55;&#47;&#119;&#104;&#121;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#101;&#45;&#117;&#107;&#45;&#104;&#97;&#115;&#45;&#111;&#110;&#108;&#121;&#45;&#104;&#97;&#100;&#45;&#111;&#110;&#101;&#45;&#110;&#97;&#109;&#101;&#100;&#45;&#115;&#116;&#111;&#114;&#109;&#45;&#115;&#111;&#45;&#102;&#97;&#114;&#45;&#116;&#104;&#105;&#115;&#45;&#119;&#105;&#110;&#116;&#101;&#114;&#45;&#97;&#110;&#45;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#114;&#116;&#45;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#108;&#97;&#105;&#110;&#115;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":693,"featured_media":26934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[104,304,2277,2319,515,578,651,735,1749,2321,941,2320,1739],"class_list":["post-26914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-beast-from-the-east","tag-el-nino","tag-feature","tag-jetstream","tag-la-nina","tag-meteorology-2","tag-pacific-ocean","tag-rain","tag-storms","tag-sudden-stratospheric-warming","tag-weather","tag-wet-weather","tag-winter-storms"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why the UK has only had one named storm so far this winter \u2013 an expert explains - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Otto was the first named storm of the UK\u2019s current winter storm season and the first to hit the country\u2019s shores since\u00a0storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin\u00a0last February. 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