{"id":27696,"date":"2023-06-19T14:47:39","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T13:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=27696"},"modified":"2023-06-19T15:59:04","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T14:59:04","slug":"planet-warming-climate-breach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/06\/19\/planet-warming-climate-breach\/","title":{"rendered":"An inevitable climate breach?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"article-content--main--content\">\n<p>The planet is warming because there is more energy arriving from the sun than leaving to space. This excess energy is heating the oceans, the land and the atmosphere above, leading to more severe heatwaves, droughts and flooding events. And as the oceans warm, they expand, which along with meltwater from diminishing ice on land, raise sea levels.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_27703\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-27703\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-27703 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/06\/Heat-inventory-725x1024.png\" alt=\"Schematic overview on the central role of the Earth heat inventory and its linkage to anthropogenic emissions, the Earth energy imbalance, change in the Earth system, and implications for ecosystems and human systems.\" width=\"640\" height=\"904\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/06\/Heat-inventory-725x1024.png 725w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/06\/Heat-inventory-213x300.png 213w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/06\/Heat-inventory-768x1084.png 768w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/06\/Heat-inventory.png 977w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-27703\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Schematic overview on the central role of the Earth heat inventory and its linkage to anthropogenic emissions, the Earth energy imbalance, change in the Earth system, and implications for ecosystems and human systems.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As made crystal clear in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/chapter\/summary-for-policymakers\/\">6<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0assessment report<\/a>, without rapid, sustained and massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, this warming will continue. And a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years\">recent assessment<\/a>\u00a0predicts it is more likely than not that one of the next 5 years will breach\u00a0what is considered a dangerous level of climate change as the world\u2019s global average surface temperature becomes 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer that before the Industrial Revolution.<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.climate.gov\/news-features\/blogs\/may-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-knocking-door\">developing El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>, a natural fluctuation in ocean circulation and atmospheric wind and rainfall patterns, makes surpassing this worrying climate milestone more likely since heat released from the oceans may add just enough warmth to tip global temperatures in 2024 above the 1.5C milestone. There is a likelihood that the next few decades could see a permanent rise above this level to the even more dangerous level of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial that the Paris climate agreement stipulates we should keep well below for the safety of our planet.<\/p>\n<p>Our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-15-1675-2023\">latest inventory of Earth\u2019s heating rate published recently<\/a>, using state of the art Earth Observation measurements, shows that if anything heat is flooding into the climate system at ever greater rates, a far cry from where we need to get to: where a balance between incoming and outgoing radiative energy is achieved. This is only possible by reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions, where any residual emissions from human activities are balanced by extra uptake by the oceans and land surface. Even if we pass 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius of warming, every action taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is beneficial in avoid worsening impacts from climate change.<\/p>\n<p>Our ongoing measurements of these carbon and energy balances are crucial in monitoring and assessing progress in tackling climate change along with its destructive influence on another natural balance which we are also closely scrutinising \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/nyas.14337\">the global water cycle<\/a>, which nourishes and sustains our human societies and the ecosystems upon which we all depend.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/meteorology\/people\/richard-allan\/\"><strong>Richard Allan<\/strong><\/a> is a Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nceo.ac.uk\/article\/an-inevitable-climate-breach-professor-richard-allan\/\">National Centre for Earth Observation<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The planet is warming because there is more energy arriving from the sun than leaving to space, says Richard Allan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":27703,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[189,2421,323,578],"class_list":["post-27696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-earth-observation","tag-environment-2","tag-meteorology-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>An inevitable climate breach? 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