{"id":28070,"date":"2023-08-23T09:00:40","date_gmt":"2023-08-23T08:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=28070"},"modified":"2023-12-12T14:34:09","modified_gmt":"2023-12-12T14:34:09","slug":"global-warming-lifetime-effects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/08\/23\/global-warming-lifetime-effects\/","title":{"rendered":"Research reveals who\u2019s been hit hardest by global warming in their lifetime – and the answer may surprise you"},"content":{"rendered":"

Earth is warming and the signs of climate change are everywhere. We\u2019ve seen it in the past few weeks as temperatures hit record highs around the world \u2013 both in the Northern Hemisphere and the\u00a0warm Australian winter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Global warming is caused by humanity\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions, which continue at\u00a0near-record pace<\/a>. These emissions are predominantly generated by people in the world\u2019s wealthiest regions.<\/p>\n

Our world-first analysis,\u00a0published today<\/a>, examines the experience of global warming over the lifetimes of people around the world: young and old, rich and poor. We sought to identify who has perceived warmer temperatures most keenly.<\/p>\n

We found middle-aged people in equatorial regions have lived through the most perceptible warming in their lifetimes. But many young people in lower-income countries could experience unrecognisable changes in their local climate later in life, unless the world rapidly tackles climate change.<\/p>\n

\"a
The study examines the experience of global warming over the lifetimes of people around the world. Craig Manners\/Unsplash<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Measuring the climate change experience<\/h2>\n

We examined temperature data and population demographics information from around the world.<\/p>\n

Key to our analysis was the fact that not all warming is due to human activity. Some of it is caused by natural, year-to-year variations in Earth\u2019s climate.<\/p>\n

These natural ups and downs are due to a number of factors. They include variations in the energy Earth receives from the sun, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and transfers of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean.<\/p>\n

This variability is stronger in mid-to-high-latitude parts of the world (those further from the equator) than in low-latitude areas (in equatorial regions). That\u2019s because the weather systems further away from the equator draw in hot or cold air from neighbouring areas, but equatorial areas don\u2019t receive cold air at all.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why, for example, the annual average temperature in New York is naturally more variable than in the city of Kinshasa (in the Democratic Republic of Congo).<\/p>\n

To account for this, we applied what\u2019s known as the \u201csignal-to-noise ratio<\/a>\u201d at each location we studied. That allowed us to separate the strength of the climate change \u201csignal\u201d from the \u201cnoise\u201d of natural variability.<\/p>\n

Making this distinction is important. The less naturally variable the temperature, the clearer the effects of warming. So warming in Kinshasa over the past 50 years has been much more perceptible than in New York.<\/p>\n

Our study examined two central questions. First, we wanted to know, for every location in the world, how clearly global warming could be perceived, relative to natural temperature variability.<\/p>\n

Second, we wanted to know where this perceived change was most clear over human lifetimes.<\/p>\n

Our results<\/h2>\n

So what did we find? As expected, the most perceptible warming is found in tropical regions \u2013 those near the equator. This includes developing parts of the world that constitute the Global South \u2013 such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia.<\/p>\n

Household incomes in the Global South are typically lower than in industrialised nations (known as the Global North). We might, then, conclude people in the poorest parts of the world have experienced the most perceptible global warming over their lifetimes. But that\u2019s not always the case.<\/p>\n

Why? Because most parts of the Global South have younger populations than wealthier regions. And some people under the age of 20, including in northern India and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, haven\u2019t experienced warming over their lifetimes.<\/p>\n

In these places, the lack of recent warming is likely down to a few factors: natural climate variability, and the local cooling effect of particles released into the atmosphere from\u00a0pollution<\/a>\u00a0and changes in land use.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s another complication. Some populated regions of the world also experienced slight cooling in the mid-20th century, primarily driven by human-caused\u00a0aerosol emissions<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So, many people born earlier than the 1950s have experienced less perceptible warming in their local area than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. This may seem counter-intuitive. But a cooling trend in the first few decades of one\u2019s life means the warming experienced over an entire lifespan (from birth until today) is smaller and less detectable.<\/p>\n

So what does all this mean? People in equatorial areas born in the 1960s and 1970s \u2013 now aged between about 45 and 65 \u2013 have experienced more perceptible warming than anyone else on Earth.<\/p>\n

Rich countries must act<\/h2>\n

Our findings are important, for several reasons.<\/p>\n

Identifying who has experienced significant global warming in their lives may help explain\u00a0attitudes to tackling climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Our findings also raise significant issues of fairness and equity.<\/p>\n

Humanity will continue to warm the planet until we reach global net-zero emissions. This means many young people in lower-income countries may, later in life, experience a local climate that is unrecognisable to that of their youth.<\/p>\n

Of course, warming temperatures are not the only way people experience climate change. Others include sea-level rise, more intense drought and rainfall extremes. We know many of these impacts are felt most acutely by\u00a0the most vulnerable populations<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are much higher in the Global North, due to economic development. To address this inequality, rich industrialised nations must take a leading role in reducing emissions to net-zero, and helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.<\/p>\n

\n

Ed Hawkins<\/a> is a Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading. Andrew King is <\/span>Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the University of Melbourne. Hunter Douglas is a <\/span>PhD Candidate at Te Herenga Waka, Victoria University of Wellington. Luke Harrington is <\/span>Senior Lecturer in Climate Change at the University of Waikato.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons Licence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Earth is warming and the signs of climate change are everywhere. We\u2019ve seen it in the past few weeks as temperatures hit record highs around the world \u2013 both in…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":276,"featured_media":28072,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[46,2453,93,189,323,2277,2020,404],"class_list":["post-28070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-africa","tag-asia","tag-australia","tag-climate-change","tag-environment-2","tag-feature","tag-global-south","tag-global-warming"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nResearch reveals who\u2019s been hit hardest by global warming in their lifetime - and the answer may surprise 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