{"id":28502,"date":"2023-11-07T10:51:25","date_gmt":"2023-11-07T10:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=28502"},"modified":"2023-11-07T10:51:25","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T10:51:25","slug":"why-storm-ciarans-winds-were-so-strong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/11\/07\/why-storm-ciarans-winds-were-so-strong\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Storm Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s winds were so strong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Storm Ciar\u00e1n made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/press-office\/news\/weather-and-climate\/2023\/storm-ciaran-update\">November 1, 2023<\/a>. The UK\u2019s Met Office issued amber\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk\/SO_8969b7d5-49c6-40b4-9f01-909795aed9bc\/\">weather warnings<\/a>\u00a0for November 2 in specific areas in the south of the UK, cautioning about high winds. This amber alert represents the second-highest level in the Met Office\u2019s three-tier system.<\/p>\n<p>Yellow warnings were also in place for both wind and rain, extending over a broader area and timeframe.<\/p>\n<p>Ciar\u00e1n unleashed extremely strong and destructive winds in some areas. Gusts of up to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/live\/uk-67285052\">102 mph<\/a>\u00a0were recorded in Jersey, and there have been reports of an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lefigaro.fr\/meteo\/en-direct-vents-violents-pluies-abondantes-la-tempete-ciaran-va-deferler-sur-la-france-20231101\">128 mph wind gust<\/a>\u00a0in Brittany on France\u2019s north-west coast. For comparison, the record wind gust in England\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/weather\/learn-about\/uk-past-events\/interesting\/2022\/2022_02_storms_dudley_eunice_franklin.pdf\">stands at 122 mph<\/a>, set in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>But why were Storm Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s winds so strong? The explanation lies in the fact that Ciar\u00e1n was not your typical extratropical cyclone (or windstorm); it was an explosively developing one.<\/p>\n<h2>An explosive cyclone<\/h2>\n<p>One notable characteristic of Storm Ciar\u00e1n was the extreme depth of its low-pressure centre. The UK Met Office announced that the central surface pressure, when adjusted to the mean sea level value, dropped to 953.3 millibars (mb) \u2013 a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/metoffice\/status\/1720055662888063363?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet\">new record<\/a>\u00a0for England and Wales in the month of November.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">\u26a0\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StormCiar%C3%A1n?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StormCiar\u00e1n<\/a> has set a new record for the lowest mean sea level pressure recorded in England and Wales in November, with a value of 953.3 hPa (mb) in Plymouth and 958.5 hPa (mb) in St Athan<\/p>\n<p>\u25fe The previous record in England was 959.7 hPa (mb), set in 1916<\/p>\n<p>\u25fe The previous\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zruckdYR2K\">pic.twitter.com\/zruckdYR2K<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Met Office (@metoffice) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/metoffice\/status\/1720055662888063363?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The rate at which Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s pressure dropped was also exceptional. In fact, it far exceeded the threshold of approximately 24 mb in 24 hours (with a slight adjustment based on latitude) required to classify a storm as an explosively deepening cyclone \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/glossary.ametsoc.org\/wiki\/Bomb_cyclone\">bomb<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>This rapid intensification occurred as Ciar\u00e1n, initially fuelled by the ascent and condensation of air over warm waters, found itself positioned beneath the front-left side of a particularly intense jet stream. The jet stream, characterised by high winds approximately 6 miles above the Earth\u2019s surface, reached speeds of up to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/charts.ecmwf.int\/products\/medium-mslp-wind200?base_time=202311011200&amp;projection=opencharts_europe&amp;valid_time=202311011200\">200 mph<\/a>\u00a0on November 1, making it an especially favourable environment for a storm to intensify in.<\/p>\n<h2>Why is this important?<\/h2>\n<p>One of the primary factors influencing the intensity of surface winds in a storm like Ciar\u00e1n is the rate of change in surface pressure. On weather charts, you\u2019ll often encounter lines of constant surface pressure, known as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/bitesize\/guides\/zstcv9q\/revision\/5\">isobars<\/a>. When isobars are closely spaced, they indicate the presence of strong winds.<\/p>\n<p>To illustrate this concept, picture two columns of water, one deeper than the other. If these columns are connected near their bottom ends, water will naturally flow from the deeper column to the shallower one, resulting in a stronger flow when there\u2019s a significant difference in water depth. Similarly, air in our atmosphere tends to move from areas of higher pressure to lower pressure. The greater the difference in pressure, the stronger the associated winds.<\/p>\n<p>Because the Earth is rotating, these winds turn towards the right and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/charts.ecmwf.int\/products\/medium-wind-100m?base_time=202311020000&amp;projection=opencharts_central_europe&amp;valid_time=202311020600\">generally follow the direction of the isobars<\/a>\u00a0rather than being directed towards the low pressure. Bomb cyclones obtain deep low-pressure centres, and the isobars are most tightly packed in the south-west quadrant of the storm, resulting in the strongest \u201cgradient\u201d winds in that region.<\/p>\n<p>In Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s case, this arc-shaped north-eastward travelling region covered Brittany, the Channel Islands, the far south-west of England and eventually the country\u2019s far south-east.<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_28509\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-28509\" style=\"width: 747px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-28509 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/11\/file-20231102-21-804lso-e1699353647528.png\" alt=\"Storm Ciar\u00e1n weather map\" width=\"747\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/11\/file-20231102-21-804lso-e1699353647528.png 747w, https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2023\/11\/file-20231102-21-804lso-e1699353647528-300x149.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-28509\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Storm Ciar\u00e1n on Thursday November 1 at 06:00. Winds closely follow the direction of the isobars. \u00a9 [2023] European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), CC BY-NC-SA<\/figcaption><\/figure>Often, these storms also move rapidly. Fast travel speed further contributes to the strength of the surface winds. This was the case for Ciar\u00e1n, which crossed the North Atlantic in just a couple of days.<\/p>\n<h2>Did Ciar\u00e1n have a sting jet?<\/h2>\n<p>During some intense windstorms, there can be an additional airstream known as the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/types-of-weather\/wind\/sting-jet\">sting jet<\/a>\u201d. Sting jets originate from specific cloud regions within the cyclone and can generate brief (lasting a few hours) and relatively small (60 miles across) areas of extremely strong winds, which are accompanied by very intense gusts should they reach the ground.<\/p>\n<p>Storms containing sting jets have a distinctive structure, often characterised by rapidly deepening clouds. The evolution of Storm Ciar\u00e1n was consistent with that structure.<\/p>\n<p>Satellite images before the storm hit revealed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AmbroeusVolonte\/status\/1719820288500683217\">narrow bands at the tip of the cloud<\/a>\u00a0hooking round the storm centre, the region from which the sting jet descends. However, detailed analysis will be required after the event to confirm whether sting jets were present.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Obs confirming forecasts (see below) as the SEVIRI IR sat shows very clear banding at the tip of the cloud head, SW of the cyclone centre, indicating sting-jet activity with air descending out of the cloud head and accelerating east into the frontal-fracture region <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/StormCiar%C3%A1n?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#StormCiar\u00e1n<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CBltEP6ToA\">https:\/\/t.co\/CBltEP6ToA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FJwPXYyPEF\">pic.twitter.com\/FJwPXYyPEF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ambrogio Volont\u00e9 (@AmbroeusVolonte) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AmbroeusVolonte\/status\/1719820288500683217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 1, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Sting jets do have the potential to worsen the damage caused by storms. But it\u2019s important to note that Ciar\u00e1n was forecast to unleash strong winds even in the absence of a sting jet.<\/p>\n<p>As a point of reference,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/wea.4402\">Storm Eunice<\/a>, which gained notoriety in February 2022 for prompting the first ever Met Office red warning for wind in southern England, setting England\u2019s current wind gust record, and damaging the roof of London\u2019s O2 arena, featured a sting jet.<\/p>\n<p>However, by the time the storm arrived London, it had reached a mature stage. And\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/wea.4401\">our own research<\/a>\u00a0suggests that the damaging winds were the result of a combination of several different airstreams, including a sting jet.<\/p>\n<p>In explosively developing cyclones such as Storm Ciar\u00e1n, damaging winds can be caused by a number of different airstreams that include, but are not limited to, sting jets.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"fn author-name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/meteorology\/people\/suzanne-gray\/\">Suzanne Gray<\/a> is <\/span>Professor of Meteorology at the University of Reading. <span class=\"fn author-name\"><a href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/meteorology\/people\/ambrogio-volonte\/\">Ambrogio Volont\u00e9<\/a> is <\/span>Senior Research Fellow at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-storm-ciarans-winds-were-so-strong-216923\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons Licence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Storm Ciar\u00e1n made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of November 1, 2023. The UK\u2019s Met Office issued amber\u00a0weather warnings\u00a0for November 2 in specific areas in&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#51;&#47;&#49;&#49;&#47;&#48;&#55;&#47;&#119;&#104;&#121;&#45;&#115;&#116;&#111;&#114;&#109;&#45;&#99;&#105;&#97;&#114;&#97;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#119;&#105;&#110;&#100;&#115;&#45;&#119;&#101;&#114;&#101;&#45;&#115;&#111;&#45;&#115;&#116;&#114;&#111;&#110;&#103;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":693,"featured_media":28509,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[2102,2277,578,2523,1749,941],"class_list":["post-28502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-extreme-weather","tag-feature","tag-meteorology-2","tag-storm-ciaran","tag-storms","tag-weather"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why Storm Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s winds were so strong - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Storm Ciar\u00e1n made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of November 1, 2023. The UK\u2019s Met Office issued amber\u00a0weather warnings\u00a0for November 2 in specific areas in the south of the UK, cautioning about high winds. This amber alert represents the second-highest level in the Met Office\u2019s three-tier system\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/11\/07\/why-storm-ciarans-winds-were-so-strong\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Storm Ciar\u00e1n\u2019s winds were so strong - Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Storm Ciar\u00e1n made landfall in southern regions of the UK during the evening of November 1, 2023. 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