{"id":28970,"date":"2023-12-21T11:04:08","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T11:04:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=28970"},"modified":"2023-12-21T11:04:08","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T11:04:08","slug":"ukraine-war-with-stalemate-on-the-battlefield-nato-needs-unity-and-commitment-more-than-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2023\/12\/21\/ukraine-war-with-stalemate-on-the-battlefield-nato-needs-unity-and-commitment-more-than-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine war: with stalemate on the battlefield Nato needs unity and commitment more than ever"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]As the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, arrived in Washington earlier this month for talks aimed at securing further military aid, Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene\u00a0posted on X<\/a>\u00a0(formerly Twitter): \u201cWith Zelensky in town and Ukraine money running dry, why doesn\u2019t anyone in Washington talk about a peace treaty with Russia?? A deal with Putin promising he will not continue any further invasions. Answer: Washington wants war, not peace. Isn\u2019t that awful?! I\u2019m still a NO.\u201d[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”28971″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]Greene and her hard-right Republican colleagues have been attempting to leverage domestic politics to influence the US response to an international crisis without truly understanding the consequences. What is not being made clear by those who argue an isolationist \u201cAmerica first\u201d line to a receptive conservative audience is that a significant proportion of the aid given to Ukraine, possibly as much as 90%,\u00a0stays within the US<\/a>. It is used to buy American-made armaments and other goods.<\/p>\n

But the geopolitical repercussions are very clear and very significant. If the US stops providing Ukraine with military aid, it will lose the war and leave Putin with the message that it has everything to gain from military aggression.<\/p>\n

Greene and her ilk clearly haven\u2019t grasped the coldblooded ease with which Putin has broken both Russia\u2019s treaty obligations and international law with the illegal invasion of Ukraine. It demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of the realities of relations with Russia.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

But it\u2019s an ominous sign for Ukraine that a growing number of its allies within Nato are having these internal discussions over supplying Kyiv with military aid. It goes to the heart of Nato\u2019s core task of crisis management and cooperative security, as described in its\u00a02022 Strategic Concept<\/a>, which identifies Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine as the key crisis facing the alliance.<\/p>\n

The key question now is whether Nato can continue to provide a coherent and coordinated response to Russia\u2019s aggression.<\/p>\n

Nato capabilities<\/h2>\n

The war has put enormous pressure on Nato\u2019s weapons manufacturing capability. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Nato strategy was to produce and stockpile a limited supply of weapons and ammunition to fight small or\u00a0\u201ccome-as-you-are\u201d wars<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a term often used to describe the sort of conflict that doesn\u2019t require a shift to a wartime economy.<\/p>\n

The question now is whether the west can ramp up its manufacturing capacity to fight what is in essence a proxy war. To give just one example, the number of Javelin missiles sent by the US to Ukraine from the end of February 2022 to August 2022 represented\u00a0seven years<\/a>\u00a0of regular production.<\/p>\n

Perhaps Nato could learn from the experience of South Korea, which for the whole of its existence has been familiar with border tensions and the need to maintain a strong military capability.<\/p>\n

For decades it has stockpiled weapons and ammunition and has shipped more 155mm shells to Ukraine than\u00a0all of Kyiv\u2019s European allies combined<\/a>. Seoul now has one of the\u00a0world\u2019s biggest stockpiles<\/a>\u00a0of weapons and ammunition. Perhaps Nato needs to do likewise.<\/p>\n

But the main problem that this conflict presents to Nato is that on the one hand it is willing and ready to share its military doctrine with Ukraine, but on the other it has not been able \u2013 or willing, in some cases \u2013 to provide the wherewithal for Ukraine to fight the war accordingly.<\/p>\n

Nato\u2019s combined arms doctrine relies on the coordination of land and air power. Without one, the other will not provide the results demanded. And, as yet, Ukraine cannot control the skies above the battlefield as it has insufficient fighter jets and trained pilots.<\/p>\n

The third element of a combined military doctrine is sea power, which is where Ukraine has enjoyed a degree of success, denying Russia control of the northwestern Black Sea and launching several attacks on Russia\u2019s Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol, which has compelled Russia to move its naval assets to safer ports further afield.<\/p>\n

Britain, the Netherlands and Norway have agreed to\u00a0send mine clearing ships to Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0to help secure shipping lanes against Russian attempts to set a blockade.<\/p>\n

Significantly, access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles is controlled by Turkey, a Nato member, and transit of warships of belligerent nations can be refused. Turkey has denied at least one Russian request to\u00a0transit warships through the straits<\/a>, but it cannot refuse access to Russian ships which are based in the Black Sea.<\/p>\n

Playing politics<\/h2>\n

The key concern, though, is political. In recent months \u2013 and certainly since the conflict in Gaza exploded into life on October 7 \u2013 there have been signs that support for Ukraine\u2019s war effort from western countries may have a limit.<\/p>\n

In the US, Republican senators\u00a0blocked the passage<\/a>\u00a0of an aid bill which would have delivered up to US$60 billion (\u00a347 billion) for Ukraine as well as funds for Israel and aid for Gaza. Meanwhile Hungary\u00a0recently vetoed<\/a>\u00a0a EU aid package of a further \u20ac50 billion (\u00a343 billion).<\/p>\n

Both the EU and the Biden administration in the US\u00a0are confident<\/a>\u00a0that they will eventually get their funding bills through, but voices calling for Ukraine to seek a ceasefire with a possibility of a territorial settlement with Russia have grown larger since it became clear that Kyiv\u2019s summer counter-offensive would not be the success that had been hoped for.<\/p>\n

Putin signalled in his\u00a0annual press conference<\/a>\u00a0recently that Russia\u2019s war aims had not changed, saying: \u201cThere will be peace when we achieve our goals. They haven\u2019t changed. Denazification of Ukraine, the demilitarisation of Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nato needs to be equally clear about what it wants the outcome of this conflict to look like.<\/p>\n

Dr Kenton White is a Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons Licence.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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