{"id":29430,"date":"2024-04-19T11:07:42","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T10:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=29430"},"modified":"2024-04-19T11:07:42","modified_gmt":"2024-04-19T10:07:42","slug":"macron-wont-rule-out-using-western-ground-troops-in-ukraine-but-is-nato-prepared-for-war-with-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2024\/04\/19\/macron-wont-rule-out-using-western-ground-troops-in-ukraine-but-is-nato-prepared-for-war-with-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Macron won\u2019t rule out using western ground troops in Ukraine \u2013 but is Nato prepared for war with Russia?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The French president, Emmanuel Macron,\u00a0has said<\/a>\u00a0sending western troops to fight in Ukraine \u201ccould not be ruled out\u201d. After hosting a meeting of 25 European leaders in Paris on February 26, Macron said that there was \u201cno consensus\u201d on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added: \u201cNothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.\u201d<\/p>\n

Until now, Nato has confined itself to training Ukrainian military forces and supplying them with defensive weapons. Member states fear that directly confronting Russian forces in Ukraine would risk a massive escalation. And Vladimir Putin and his senior ministers have regularly issued\u00a0threats that<\/a>\u00a0Russia could resort to using its nuclear arsenal in the case of a larger conflict.<\/p>\n

Importantly, one aspect of the exercises is the involvement of US and Canadian forces, which is designed to demonstrate the speed and size of Nato\u2019s reinforcement capabilities. It acts both as a reassurance to European Nato member states and as a demonstration to potential enemies of the ability Nato has to put large forces into the field. Exercises are part of the communication of deterrence.<\/p>\n

The exercise is meant\u00a0to simulate<\/a>\u00a0an, \u201cemerging conflict scenario with a near-peer adversary\u201d. This is a thinly disguised reference to Russia, which shows that Nato is beginning to take the threat of direct conflict with that country seriously.<\/p>\n

At present, Nato is also conducting its largest military exercise since the cold war.\u00a0Steadfast Defender<\/a>\u00a0runs from January until May and involves all 31 member states. Aimed at enhancing the alliance\u2019s collective defence capabilities and readiness, it is the largest exercise since\u00a0Reforger in 1988<\/a>, which involved 125,000 troops from the US, Germany, Canada, France and Denmark.<\/p>\n

General Christopher Cavoli, Nato\u2019s supreme allied commander for Europe,\u00a0said<\/a>: \u201cSteadfast Defender 2024 will be a clear demonstration of our unity, strength and determination to protect each other, our values and the rules-based international order.\u201d[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”29431″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]During the cold war, Nato undertook regular large-scale exercises. For example,\u00a0Exercise Lionheart, led by the UK in 1984<\/a>, involved nearly 58,000 British soldiers and airmen of a total force of 131,565, including troops from the US, the Netherlands and what was then West Germany.<\/p>\n

Since the dissolution of the Soviet bloc, Nato has searched for a new identity. Its\u00a0focus shifted<\/a>\u00a0in the 1990s from protecting common territory to protecting members\u2019 common interests, as it did by intervening in the wars in\u00a0Bosnia in 1995<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Kosovo in 1999<\/a>, when it officially approved this new\u00a0strategic concept<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Need for unity<\/h2>\n

A demonstration of Nato unity and military capacity is important, coming after two years of disunity over how to respond to the war in Ukraine and amid wrangling over supplies of arms by Ukraine\u2019s western allies. It has become more significant following recent remarks\u00a0by former president Donald Trump<\/a>\u00a0that Nato members who did not meet the spending guidelines would no longer be protected by the US.[\/vc_column_text][vc_video link=”https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=a9SCscQipSk&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversation.com%2F&source_ve_path=Mjg2NjY&feature=emb_logo”][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

\u2018I would not protect you\u2019: Donald Trump threatens Nato members over defence spending.<\/h5>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Members are supposed to spend at least 2% of their annual GDP on defence \u2013 but it\u2019s more complicated than that. Some nations\u2019 defence spending is wholly allocated to Nato. Others, meanwhile, might set their defence spending at less than 2%, but their spending per head is greater than that of those who meet the Nato guideline.<\/p>\n

For example, Luxembourg\u00a0falls short<\/a>\u00a0of the 2%, spending only 0.72%. But in per head terms it spends US$921 (\u00a3726), which is more than Poland (3.9%) or France (1.9%).<\/p>\n

The US may spend 3.5% GDP on defence, but not all of that is allocated to Nato. Much of the US\u2019s strength is deployed in the Pacific and on its home territories. So it\u2019s misleading to judge the value of Nato membership in these terms.<\/p>\n

They key clause in the Nato treaty is article 5, which governs collective security and compels members to respond if a fellow member is attacked by a hostile third party. The US is the only Nato member state to have invoked article 5, following the 9\/11 attacks. It received assistance from other Nato members in Afghanistan and more widely in the \u201cwar on terror\u201d.<\/p>\n

Is Nato battle ready?<\/h2>\n

A significant problem Nato faces however, is not in deploying the troops it has, but in supplying them. As has been demonstrated by the efforts to provide equipment and ammunition to Ukraine, Nato has neither the stockpiles nor the manufacturing capacity to supply a lengthy modern war.<\/p>\n

This is because Nato has long planned on what\u2019s known as a \u201ccome as you are\u201d war, which means it has the capacity to fight for only as long as the equipment and supplies last. For this reason, Nato\u2019s strategy has always been, in the event of a conflict, to bring it to a conclusion as quickly as possible.<\/p>\n

Admiral Rob Bauer of the Royal Netherlands Navy, Nato\u2019s most senior military commander and military adviser to its North Atlantic Council, spoke at the Warsaw Security Forum in October 2023. He\u00a0said<\/a>: \u201cWe need large volumes. The just-in-time, just-enough economy we built together in 30 years in our liberal economies is fine for a lot of things \u2013 but not the armed forces when there is a war ongoing.\u201d<\/p>\n

A number of European countries have already distanced themselves from Macron\u2019s remarks, including Poland, the Czech republic and Sweden, whose Nato membership has finally been approved by Hungary and which is set to become the alliance\u2019s 32nd member.<\/p>\n

But Russia has seized on Macron\u2019s remarks, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov\u00a0telling reporters<\/a>\u00a0that even discussing the idea of western troops being sent to fight in Ukraine represents a \u201cvery important new element\u201d. He added: \u201cIn that case, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability (of a direct conflict).\u201d[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Dr Kenton White is Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations, University of Reading.<\/span><\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversatio<\/a>n<\/a> under a Creative Commons license.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The French president, Emmanuel Macron,\u00a0has said\u00a0sending western troops to fight in Ukraine \u201ccould not be ruled out\u201d. 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