{"id":29630,"date":"2024-07-03T08:00:35","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T07:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=29630"},"modified":"2024-06-28T13:33:44","modified_gmt":"2024-06-28T12:33:44","slug":"natos-washington-summit-will-need-to-tackle-russian-sabotage-and-myriad-security-threats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2024\/07\/03\/natos-washington-summit-will-need-to-tackle-russian-sabotage-and-myriad-security-threats\/","title":{"rendered":"Nato\u2019s Washington summit will need to tackle Russian sabotage and myriad security threats"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The leaders of Nato member states will meet\u00a0in Washington DC<\/a>\u00a0in a few weeks and one of the topics of discussion will be how to tackle escalating incidents of Russian sabotage.[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”29631″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]Former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, as new secretary general of Nato, will have to tackle Russian attacks on European security.<\/span><\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Ahead of the summit on July 9-11, there has been increased Russian intelligence activity across Nato member states. The Dutch National Security Agency\u00a0warned<\/a>\u00a0that it is possible Russia has orchestrated\u00a0various arson and sabotage attacks<\/a>\u00a0in the UK, Poland, Sweden and Germany. In the meantime, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg,\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that the organisation had increased its vigilance and was closely monitoring Russian activities.<\/p>\n

In the UK, the National Security Act 2023\u00a0has been used for the first time<\/a>\u00a0to charge a man with assisting a foreign intelligence service following his arson attack targeting Ukrainian businesses on March 20.<\/p>\n

This is just part of a\u00a0pattern of sabotage activities<\/a>\u00a0across Europe with planned attacks on US military bases in Germany thwarted, railway derailments in Sweden and the recruitment of citizens and criminal networks in Estonia and Lithuania to attack government and opposition figures.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Russia has a long history of pushing the boundaries and how Nato responds in both the short and long term is key to firmly reinforcing those boundaries. Its members will need to ensure close cooperation, particularly on intelligence, to counter potential networks of saboteurs who appear to be operating in the region.<\/p>\n

The sabotage efforts come amid the\u00a0largest Nato exercises<\/a>\u00a0since the end of the cold war. Named\u00a0Steadfast Defender<\/a>, the exercises saw more than 90,000 troops from member states in rapid deployments across Europe and the Atlantic.<\/p>\n

Steadfast Defender aimed to \u201cdemonstrate Nato\u2019s ability to defend every inch of its territory\u201d with the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Gen Christopher Cavoli,\u00a0stating<\/a>\u00a0that the exercises showed the organisation\u2019s unity and determination to protect each member.<\/p>\n

Now the critical question is how the upcoming\u00a0Washington summit<\/a>\u00a0will shape Nato\u2019s approach to tackling Kremlin-backed sabotage and whether the membership will decide to back Ukraine with further military support.<\/p>\n

Nato refocuses on combat<\/h2>\n

For much of the 21st century, Nato has focused on activities such as peacekeeping, training, logistics and humanitarian relief rather than combat. Many Nato activities have also been based outside the Euro-Atlantic region (Europe, south Asia and the Middle East) such as the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan and cooperation with the African Union. The threat posed by Russia in Europe presents a very different challenge.<\/p>\n

\n

Read more:\u00a0US kicks off debate on conscription as other Nato members introduce drafts<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Following the\u00a02022 Madrid summit<\/a>, Nato declared Russia a threat and issued a statement saying that Russia \u201cundermines international security and stability\u201d. It added: \u201cThe Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies\u2019 security and to peace and stability.\u201d<\/p>\n

It then doubled the number of battlegroups (a military unit normally made up of five companies) that Nato maintains along its eastern European border from Estonia to Bulgaria. These battlegroups have grown in size as a deterrent to further Russian military action in the region.<\/p>\n

As part of this change, Nato undertook\u00a0Steadfast Jupiter<\/a>\u00a0in late 2023 which saw troops rehearse wartime fighting that could be needed to defend member states.<\/p>\n

Nato\u2019s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe is currently undergoing a major transition from a strategic to a war-fighting command headquarters. It could then command and coordinate the complex network of operations needed if Nato were to deploy forces to defend an attack on a member nation.<\/p>\n

Admiral Robert Bauer, chair of the Nato military committee,\u00a0said<\/a>: \u201cThese changes are essential to our Alliance, especially as NATO is transitioning from an era of crisis management to a new era of collective defence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moving towards the summit<\/h2>\n

This summit, which marks Nato\u2019s 75th anniversary, is a critical moment for Nato and the defence of the Euro-Atlantic region, especially with a\u00a0possible Trump-led US<\/a>\u00a0likely to pull back funding and commitment.<\/p>\n

As threats emanating from Russia continue, analysts\u00a0have identified<\/a>\u00a0Nato\u2019s weaknesses, including its reliance on US military resources and its members relatively low defence spending and investments.[\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”29632″ img_size=”full”][vc_column_text]Map of the world in 2022 indicating Finland, Sweden, and NATO’s geographical position<\/span>. Image licensed under the Creative Commons<\/a>\u00a0Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International<\/a>\u00a0license.<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]The forthcoming summit\u2019s location is important. European leaders will need to convince the US of Nato\u2019s continued relevance and that Europe is pulling its weight financially. Only 18 out of 32 members are\u00a0on track<\/a>\u00a0to hit the 2% of GDP defence spending target agreed by Nato member\u00a0state defence ministers in 2006<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The 2023 Vilnius summit saw Nato repeat its long-term support for Ukraine becoming a member. But days before that summit, Joe Biden\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that the war in Ukraine must end before Ukraine\u2019s membership application could move forward.<\/p>\n

In May this year, Stoltenberg\u00a0called for<\/a>\u00a0\u201cfirmer, stronger institutionalized\u201d assistance and training for Ukraine to be agreed in Washington. There will probably be commitments to continued security assistance to Ukraine alongside firm statements on Nato\u2019s rapid response capabilities if a member nation is attacked.<\/p>\n

A new Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, is about to be appointed at a vital time for the organisation as it faces threats from Russia as well as possible funding cuts from the US. As Nato\u2019s chief political spokesperson, the secretary general\u00a0plays a vital role<\/a>\u00a0in rallying members to maintain and increase their defence spending .<\/p>\n

Former Dutch prime minister Rutte\u2019s years of experience leading coalition governments in the Netherlands could prove useful for alliance building at Nato. Rutte, who will take over the role this autumn, has been an outspoken\u00a0supporter of Ukraine<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Dutch military aid<\/a>\u00a0for Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Russia is continuing to\u00a0increase spending<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0the war<\/a>. Its defence spending grew by 24% from 2022 to 2023, making it the third highest spending nation on military expenditure globally.<\/p>\n

Nato will now need to repeat its future commitment to Ukraine and how it will sustain the military capabilities necessary to defend its member nations.<\/p>\n

New members Sweden and Finland bring added military capabilities to the alliance. Swedish companies produce everything from\u00a0fighter jets to submarines<\/a>\u00a0and Finland has highly capable\u00a0resilience planning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It is also important that Nato continues to ensure its forces are ready to mobilise and rapidly deploy. This will be underpinned by well-developed planning procedures across the organisation. Exercises play a key role in allowing Nato forces to develop and implement processes and procedures that improve military effectiveness.<\/p>\n

This is just one part of a set of challenges that Nato, and Rutte, will face as Russia continues to undermine security across Europe.<\/p>\n

Alexander Gilder<\/span> is Associate Professor of International Law and Security, University of Reading.<\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons licence.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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