{"id":30919,"date":"2025-02-21T16:30:06","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T16:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=30919"},"modified":"2025-02-25T09:51:13","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T09:51:13","slug":"why-the-british-army-is-so-unprepared-to-send-troops-to-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2025\/02\/21\/why-the-british-army-is-so-unprepared-to-send-troops-to-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the British army is so unprepared to send troops to Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”30921″ img_size=”large” add_caption=”yes”][vc_column_text]Prime Minister Keir Starmer has\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0that Britain is \u201cready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary\u201d.<\/p>\n

While reports\u00a0suggest<\/a>\u00a0these would be \u201cpeacekeeping\u201d forces, the reality is that true peacekeepers must be impartial. British troops placed to support Ukraine could certainly be seen as \u201cpartial\u201d. And the positioning of British forces in Ukraine would fit the Russian narrative that casts Nato as the\u00a0aggressor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is not a member of Nato, but the goal of Nato membership is enshrined in its constitution. British forces involved in any sort of fighting in Ukraine would not enable\u00a0article 5<\/a>, which states that each member will regard an attack on any other member as an attack on themselves and assist it, to be invoked. Additionally, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said last week that European troops deployed to Ukraine\u00a0should not be covered<\/a>\u00a0under article 5.<\/p>\n

The weakness with Starmer\u2019s idea is that Britain does not have the wherewithal to provide enough troops, supplies and weapons to act as a real deterrent. This isn\u2019t too dissimilar from the state of British forces when faced with war in Europe more than a century ago.<\/p>\n

In 1914\u00a0Lord Kitchener<\/a>, then secretary of state for war, speaking of the cabinet\u2019s decision to go to war in Europe, thundered, \u201cDid they remember, when they went headlong into a war like this, that they were without an army, and without any preparation to equip one?\u201d<\/p>\n

Small numbers would be nothing more than a \u201cspeed-bump\u201d against a large attack, as the British Expeditionary Force was in 1914 and again in 1940. Poor preparation, small numbers and limited equipment meant their deployment was more an indication of Britain\u2019s support, rather than real capability to fight a long war against a peer enemy.<\/p>\n

Britain is again in this position. Years of\u00a0spending cuts<\/a>\u00a0have removed the ability of British forces to prosecute a war against a peer adversary for an extended time. The number of troops has fallen from 100,000 full-time trained personnel in 2000, to\u00a0approximately 70,000 today<\/a>.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Britain also does not have the capacity to manufacture at the levels required for a modern war. Much will be needed for immediate capital investment, such as manufacturing capacity for arms and ammunition. Longer-term investment will be required for arms production, as will the reinstatement of supporting infrastructure, such as airfields and storage facilities abandoned after the end of the cold war, both within Britain and across Europe.<\/p>\n

There is no solution to the immediate problem except increasing the money available for defence. But Britain, and many other Nato members, have been unwilling to increase spending on defence, even though the current capabilities have been run down to such an extent that\u00a0European nations cannot field a capable force<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Defence spending<\/h2>\n

US president Donald Trump has called for Nato countries to up their defence spending to 5% of GDP from the current Nato target of 2%. This would be\u00a0very difficult to achieve<\/a>\u00a0in Britain\u2019s current financial situation without spending cuts elsewhere.<\/p>\n

While it has been\u00a0reported<\/a>\u00a0that defence chiefs are pushing for a rise to 2.65% of GDP, Starmer indicated he would resist pressure to\u00a0increase spending<\/a>\u00a0above 2.5%.<\/p>\n

The last time the UK spent more than 5% of its GDP on defence was in the height of the cold war. The current international situation has already begun to shift into two distinct blocs similar to the east-west split between 1945 and 1991. However, the bipolar balance of the cold war has been replaced with an increasing instability, as displayed by Russian aggression in Georgia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Replacing lost capacity is almost always more expensive than maintaining it. Had the governments of past decades maintained the capabilities of the armed forces, the overall cost would most likely have been lower than the amount the nation will now have to invest to obtain the same level of defence.<\/p>\n

Each defence review since 1957 has led to cuts to the defence budget in real terms. Reductions in the military budget continue because, previously, nothing presented a sufficient sub-nuclear threat to the nation deemed significant enough to reverse them. Those cuts are now so deep that the nation is on the edge of being unable to defend itself, let alone project military power abroad in any significant capacity.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]The prime minister\u00a0wrote<\/a>: \u201cWe have got to show we are truly serious about our own defence and bearing our own burden.\u201d This assertion is quickly undermined by the indication that he won\u2019t increase spending anytime soon.<\/p>\n

None of the western members of Nato have shown any\u00a0willingness<\/a>\u00a0to significantly increase their defence spending. Great Britain expects to\u00a0spend \u00a356.4 billion<\/a>\u00a0for 2024-25, amounting to\u00a0approximately<\/a>\u00a02.3% of GDP. But this includes \u00a30.65 billion in pensions and benefits, and \u00a30.22 billion in \u201carms-length bodies\u201d that do not contribute to the defence establishment in any practical terms.<\/p>\n

Britain and Nato have had clear warning since 2014 to correct the deficiencies of their defences. All have chosen to ignore the developing threat from Russia. The impression is that not only are we hoping for the best, but we are planning for the best too.<\/p>\n

Lord Tedder, chief of the air staff after the second world war,\u00a0wrote<\/a>, \u201cIt is at the outset of war that time is the supreme factor.\u201d Three years into the war in Ukraine, and it is clear that Nato missed the opportunity to strengthen its defences in the early stages. It now faces a significant increase in defence spending simply to make up the shortfall from previous decades.[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Kenton White<\/a> is\u00a0Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations, University of Reading<\/p>\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license. Read the\u00a0original article<\/a>.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”30921″ img_size=”large” add_caption=”yes”][vc_column_text]Prime Minister Keir Starmer has\u00a0said\u00a0that Britain is \u201cready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary\u201d….Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":991,"featured_media":30921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2802,2277,1983,2803,1982,2658],"class_list":["post-30919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-british-army","tag-feature","tag-nato","tag-uk-defence","tag-ukraine","tag-ukraine-invasion-2022"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the British army is so unprepared to send troops to Ukraine - 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