{"id":31850,"date":"2025-10-22T08:57:55","date_gmt":"2025-10-22T07:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=31850"},"modified":"2025-10-22T14:18:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-22T13:18:08","slug":"how-a-more-flexible-energy-grid-can-cope-better-with-swings-in-britains-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2025\/10\/22\/how-a-more-flexible-energy-grid-can-cope-better-with-swings-in-britains-weather\/","title":{"rendered":"How a more flexible energy grid can cope better with swings in Britain\u2019s weather"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”31852″ img_size=”large” add_caption=”yes”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

For most Brits, January 8 2025 was an uneventful Wednesday, albeit slightly cold. But these low temperatures, coupled with a significant drop in wind speed, contributed to a spike in the real-time electricity price to over seven times the 2024-25 winter average.<\/p>\n

The National Energy System Operator (Neso), the organisation responsible for balancing electricity<\/a> supply with demand minute-by-minute, highlighted \u201cweather driven factors\u201d as a major challenge on January 8<\/a>. Neso\u2019s costs to produce enough electricity to balance the system on this day reached \u00a321 million<\/a> \u2013 costs that increase consumer bills.<\/p>\n

A new report<\/a>, coordinated by the Royal Meteorological Society and supported by the energy team at AECOM, a global infrastructure consulting company, highlights how Britain\u2019s electricity system is sensitive to seemingly benign weather conditions. This report highlights the importance of predicting and responding to these events \u2013 and provides evidence to inform how the future energy system could be designed to ensure it remains resilient to the weather.<\/p>\n

Every minute, Neso monitors weather conditions to make decisions about how best to balance supply and demand. If the forecast suggests a drop off in wind speed, then Neso can use a range of tools to make up for the resulting reduction in wind generation. This includes interconnectors (importing excess electricity from neighbouring countries), stored energy or gas generation.<\/p>\n

Electricity demand also fluctuates depending on changes in weather. In winter, when the weather is dull and cold, people tend to use more heating and lighting (alongside increased kettle usage for more cups of tea). In summer, heatwaves can increase demand through fan and air conditioning usage.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”31854″ img_size=”large” add_caption=”yes”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

The most difficult periods occur when there is an increase in demand at the same time as a decrease in wind generation. Weather that causes these cloudy and still conditions is referred to as dunkelflaute<\/em> \u2013 German for \u201cdark and still\u201d.<\/p>\n

Dunkelflaute<\/em> conditions are also known as anticyclonic gloom. This has recently been affecting the UK\u2019s weather<\/a>. Researchers at the University of Reading<\/a> have shown that dunkelflaute<\/em> is usually associated with stationary high pressure over the UK. These systems get in the way and \u201cblock\u201d wet and windy weather from hitting the British Isles.<\/p>\n

Thanks to the accuracy of modern weather forecasting, there is usually plenty of warning about when these situations will occur<\/a>. But there is a cost associated with requesting additional electricity generation at relatively short notice, as only a few power plants can switch on quickly, and they\u2019re expensive to start and run. That puts the overall system price of electricity up.<\/p>\n

These dunkelflaute<\/em> episodes can be brief and intense like on January 8, when the price spiked so dramatically because forecasts gave limited warning. Or, they can be less severe but last for a longer period, for example in early November 2024, when there was an extended wind drought lasting several weeks<\/a>. This leads to an extended period of high system prices for electricity.<\/p>\n

Dunkelflaute<\/em> conditions are not unique to the UK. They can stretch across multiple countries, as shown by researchers in Germany<\/a>. More cables are being built to connect European energy systems and share power across borders. But if countries are experiencing wind droughts simultaneously, the ability of these connections to help balance supply and demand is reduced. Grids need to be resilient even if nations can\u2019t import energy from their neighbours.<\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=”31853″ img_size=”large” add_caption=”yes”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Future-proofing the energy system<\/h2>\n

In the future, wind and solar capacity is set to increase<\/a> and electricity demand will jump<\/a> due to more heat pumps and electric vehicles. The report models what the consequences of January\u2019s extreme drop in wind speed would be in such a future energy system \u2013 increasing the number of wind turbines and solar panels alone is not enough. Other strategies are required to keep the lights on in a low-carbon electricity system.<\/p>\n

Importantly, getting more of our electricity from weather-dependent sources does not mean that plans for a low-carbon energy system are impossible. But other technologies will be needed to plug the gap between the renewable generation at any given moment, and the demand at that time.<\/p>\n

One option is increasing the amount of energy storage, using excess electricity at times of high winds to store energy for future wind droughts. Energy storage comes in many forms including pumped hydropower (pumping water uphill and letting it fall to release energy later), batteries and potentially green hydrogen (generated from the electrolysis of water).<\/p>\n

Other options include interconnection with other countries\u2019 networks and building other forms of low-carbon generation, like nuclear power stations. An interconnector to Denmark \u2013 Viking Link<\/a> \u2013 came online at the end of 2023. This means Britain can import energy from Denmark when domestic wind generation is low, and export energy in the other direction when there is a surplus of renewable power, smoothing out electricity supply fluctuations in both countries.<\/p>\n

Further new interconnectors, between the UK and the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, are planned<\/a>.<\/p>\n

An alternative is to adjust demand to match the available supply. This is called \u201cdemand flexibility\u201d<\/a>. For example, consumers may be offered very cheap \u2013 even free \u2013 electricity during periods of excess renewable electricity generation, encouraging them to use more electricity when there is plenty of it.
\nBusinesses may also be incentivised to reduce usage when supply is tight.<\/p>\n

New technologies can help reduce energy use at peak times, making it easier to match supply levels. For example, smart car chargers communicate with the grid and operators to adjust charging times to when there is less demand<\/a>. Demand flexibility is already being trialled, and is likely to become more common in the future.<\/p>\n

Britain needs the right mix of these solutions to maintain a system that continues to provide electricity in the ever-changing British weather. Much of Britain\u2019s electricity will come from wind when it blows. But storage, interconnectors and flexible electricity use \u2013 informed by research into the frequency and severity of dunkelflaute<\/em> \u2013 are vital components.<\/p>\n

With this mix in place, days like January 8 will become much easier to manage.<\/p>\n

\n

\"The<\/p>\n

\n

Matthew Wright<\/a>, PhD Candidate, Department of Atmospheric Physics, University of Oxford<\/a><\/em>; Ben Hutchins<\/a>, PhD Candidate, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading<\/a><\/em>, and James Mollard<\/a>, Postgraduate Researcher, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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