{"id":32418,"date":"2026-02-17T14:00:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T14:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=32418"},"modified":"2026-02-17T15:25:43","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T15:25:43","slug":"britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/","title":{"rendered":"Britain\u2019s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as\u00a0expected"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;32422&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; add_caption=&#8221;yes&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<p>Large parts of the UK are experiencing relentless rainfall, with some places seeing rain for 41 consecutive days and counting. In Reading, in the south east of England, our university\u2019s official rain gauge has recorded precipitation on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/news\/2026\/Expert-Comment\/Rain-for-31-days-straight-shatters-records-as-flood-risks-grow\">31 consecutive days<\/a> \u2013 unprecedented in records stretching all the way back to 1908.<\/p>\n<p>The pattern has not just made 2026 a bit dreary. It also reveals one way in which climate change is making the already naturally variable (some would say gloriously variable) British weather increasingly extreme.<\/p>\n<p>In those 31 days, Reading has received 141mm of rain, compared to the 30-year average over that period of just 58mm \u2013 well over twice what we would expect at the time of year.<\/p>\n<p>Higher than average rainfall totals are expected, well, half of the time. This is just how median averages work. But it\u2019s the nature of this current weather pattern that is so unusual, and is in keeping with the type of <a href=\"https:\/\/weather.metoffice.gov.uk\/climate-change\/climate-change-in-the-uk\">wetter winter situation for UK weather<\/a> that climate scientists have been warning us to expect \u2013 even if we are still <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2025GL118201?af=R\">only just learning why<\/a> exactly this is happening on a regional level.<\/p>\n<p>Over the full breadth of a British year, the bigger picture is even more revealing. Last year, the UK was grappling with one of the hottest and driest summers on record. A succession of hot spells, combined with long periods that saw less than average rainfall, meant water supplies dwindled and widespread hosepipe bans were put in place.<\/p>\n<p>As a whole, 2025 from spring onwards was <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/how-the-weather-got-stuck-over-the-uk-and-produced-an-unusually-dry-and-warm-spring-255987\">exceptionally dry<\/a>. Fast forward to the new year, and we\u2019re facing the opposite \u2013 weeks of rainfall and flooding. <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-021-03100-5\">These extremes<\/a> are what we expect to see in this part of the world, as heat builds up in the global atmosphere and oceans. For British people, this is what climate change right now feels like.<\/p>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;32421&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; add_caption=&#8221;yes&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2>More rain, more intense rain<\/h2>\n<p>What is causing this link between a warmer planet and wetter British winters? One fundamental link is in basic physics of the atmosphere as temperatures rise. Warmer air can hold more moisture \u2013 about <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/climate-change\/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect\/\">7% more for every one degree celsius of warming<\/a>. This means that when it rains, on average it rains harder. Bigger, heavier downpours become more common.<\/p>\n<p>Climate change is also disrupting the <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00382-025-07591-1\">patterns of currents and cycles<\/a> within the atmosphere and oceans that bring the UK much of its weather. As an island archipelago on the edge of three competing climate masses \u2013 the wet, mild Atlantic, the cold, dry Arctic, and the wildly variable temperatures of the Eurasian landmass \u2013 it is used to variability.<\/p>\n<p>But one constant feature plays an oversized role in the type of weather we get: the jet stream \u2013 a ribbon of fast-flowing air high in the atmosphere. The position of the jet stream makes a big difference. Sometimes it flows to the north of Scotland, sometimes it is hundreds of miles further south towards Spain. This location matters, because the jet stream helps to blow whole weather systems \u2013 think of a big \u201cbubble\u201d of air carrying its own weather with it \u2013 from the Atlantic towards the UK.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, the jet stream is positioned further south than typical for the time of year, steering consecutive wet and often windy weather systems directly towards the UK. At the same time, a high pressure system is sitting over parts of northern Europe, blocking the wet weather from moving further east.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Feel like the rain hasn\u2019t stopped? \u2614<\/p>\n<p>For some places, it really hasn\u2019t! \ud83d\ude26<\/p>\n<p>North Wyke, Cardinham and Astwood Bank have recorded rain every single day so far this year \ud83c\udf27\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/q8DchNZQjB\">pic.twitter.com\/q8DchNZQjB<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Met Office (@metoffice) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/metoffice\/status\/2020844974107980225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The impact of climate change on the jet stream is complex, because this river of air circling the north pole from west to east is influenced by a lot of different factors. One thing we do know: the Arctic, at surface level, is warming <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474\">faster than other parts of the planet<\/a>. This means that the temperature difference between the poles and the equator, for air at lower levels at least, is not as big as it used to be. This may be influencing the jet stream to <a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/10\/1\/014005\">weaken and meander<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With less energy to push them along, these weather patterns can get stuck in one location, meaning that the systems of low air pressure associated with rainfall and storms can slow down or get stuck. When a system bringing rain parks itself over the UK for days on end, only to be followed by another system, and another, the result is relentless rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>To complicate things further, high up in the atmosphere where the jet stream blows, climate change is actually making the temperature difference between equator and poles increase. This may be strengthening the speed and turbulence <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-019-1465-z\">within the jet stream itself<\/a>, and just adds to a complex picture of varying influence on UK rainfall.<\/p>\n<h2>The challenge of managing extremes<\/h2>\n<p>These rapid swings between drought and deluge pose serious practical challenges for everyone in the UK. Water companies must plan for <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/britain-is-in-the-middle-of-a-drought-so-how-come-theres-flooding-118710\">both droughts and floods<\/a>, even within the same year. Farmers face uncertain growing conditions, with crops rotting in the wet soil one month, and drying out in droughts a few months later. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northdevongazette.co.uk\/news\/around-devon\/2012534\/funding-call-for-final-phase-of-south-west-rail-defences.html\">Infrastructure<\/a> designed for the climate of the past may not cope with the extremes of the future.<\/p>\n<p>Understanding these changes isn\u2019t just an academic exercise. It\u2019s essential for helping communities, businesses and governments prepare for what\u2019s coming. As Britain experiences these climate extremes at first-hand, it is crucial to build resilience into plans for hotter and drier summers, and warmer wetter winters.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>This article was updated on February 16 to use the correct word in the fourth paragraph. Rainfall will of course be above the<\/em> median <em>average half of the time, but not (necessarily) the mean average.<\/em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/275840\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jess-neumann-2593898\">Jess Neumann<\/a>, Associate Professor of Hydrology, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-reading-902\">University of Reading<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/hannah-cloke-755555\">Hannah Cloke<\/a>, Professor of Hydrology, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-reading-902\">University of Reading<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected-275840\">original article<\/a>.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;32422&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; add_caption=&#8221;yes&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] Large parts of the UK are experiencing relentless rainfall, with some places seeing rain for 41 consecutive days and counting. In Reading, in the south east&#8230;<a class=\"read-more\" href=\"&#104;&#116;&#116;&#112;&#115;&#58;&#47;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#46;&#114;&#101;&#97;&#100;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#46;&#97;&#99;&#46;&#117;&#107;&#47;&#114;&#101;&#115;&#101;&#97;&#114;&#99;&#104;&#45;&#98;&#108;&#111;&#103;&#47;&#50;&#48;&#50;&#54;&#47;&#48;&#50;&#47;&#49;&#55;&#47;&#98;&#114;&#105;&#116;&#97;&#105;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#114;&#101;&#108;&#101;&#110;&#116;&#108;&#101;&#115;&#115;&#45;&#114;&#97;&#105;&#110;&#45;&#115;&#104;&#111;&#119;&#115;&#45;&#99;&#108;&#105;&#109;&#97;&#116;&#101;&#45;&#112;&#114;&#101;&#100;&#105;&#99;&#116;&#105;&#111;&#110;&#115;&#45;&#112;&#108;&#97;&#121;&#105;&#110;&#103;&#45;&#111;&#117;&#116;&#45;&#97;&#115;&#45;&#101;&#120;&#112;&#101;&#99;&#116;&#101;&#100;&#47;\">Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":969,"featured_media":32422,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[189,323,2102,1514,2904,2905],"class_list":["post-32418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-environment-2","tag-extreme-weather","tag-ocean-warming","tag-uk-climate","tag-uk-rain-2026"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.8.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Britain\u2019s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as\u00a0expected - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Britain\u2019s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as\u00a0expected - Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_single_image image=&#8221;32422&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; add_caption=&#8221;yes&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] Large parts of the UK are experiencing relentless rainfall, with some places seeing rain for 41 consecutive days and counting. In Reading, in the south east...Read More &gt;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Connecting Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theuniversityofreading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-17T14:00:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-17T15:25:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/72\/2026\/02\/priyank-pathak-xvdbHwLmHNY-unsplash-e1771326182265-1024x855.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"855\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Conor Byrne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@UniRdg_Research\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Conor Byrne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Conor Byrne\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#\/schema\/person\/0f3f2225d484dd8910ebd7758671acbf\"},\"headline\":\"Britain\u2019s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as\u00a0expected\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-17T14:00:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-17T15:25:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\"},\"wordCount\":1075,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"climate change\",\"environment\",\"extreme weather\",\"ocean warming\",\"UK climate\",\"UK rain 2026\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Environment\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2026\/02\/17\/britains-relentless-rain-shows-climate-predictions-playing-out-as-expected\/\",\"name\":\"Britain\u2019s relentless rain shows climate predictions playing out as\u00a0expected - 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