{"id":3721,"date":"2018-10-08T17:02:49","date_gmt":"2018-10-08T16:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=3721"},"modified":"2018-10-08T17:02:49","modified_gmt":"2018-10-08T16:02:49","slug":"ipcc-1-5%e2%84%83-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2018\/10\/08\/ipcc-1-5%e2%84%83-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says\/","title":{"rendered":"IPCC 1.5\u2103 report: here\u2019s what the climate science says"},"content":{"rendered":"

We must take urgent action on an unprecedented scale to keep global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C says the IPCC’s new report, released today. Reading Professor\u00a0Keith Shine explains the science behind the headlines in a new post for The Conversation.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s climate scientists have spoken: if we want to limit human-induced global warming to 1.5\u2103 we probably can. But it will be tough, given where we\u2019re starting from.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the conclusion of a\u00a0new report<\/a>\u00a0by the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The focus on 1.5\u2103 is the result of years of international negotiation. Starting in 1994, a central aim of the UN\u2019s climate change efforts (the Framework Convention on Climate Change, or UNFCCC) was to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would \u201cprevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\u201d. Much was written on what this meant, particularly the word \u201cdangerous\u201d.<\/p>\n

Negative impacts of climate change occur on a continuum, and defining a point at which climate change becomes dangerous is difficult and contentious. On the other hand, climate change negotiations are difficult without some target to work towards.<\/p>\n

Fifteen years later, the UNFCCC\u2019s Copenhagen Accord introduced a 2\u2103 target, and its 2015\u00a0Paris Agreement<\/a>\u00a0was even more specific: it \u201caims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change \u2026 by holding the increase in \u2026 temperature to well below 2\u2103 above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the \u2026 increase to 1.5\u2103\u201d.<\/p>\n

The IPCC provides scientific advice to the UNFCCC, which makes policy, and the IPCC itself has never stated a temperature target. It does however list climate change risks using five \u201creasons for concern\u201d. These include impacts such as \u201cunique and threatened ecosystems and cultures\u201d (such as coral reefs) and \u201cextreme weather events\u201d, each of which is rated on a scale from \u201cundetectable\u201d to \u201cvery high\u201d. The IPCC\u2019s most recent (2014)\u00a0Fifth Assessment<\/a>\u00a0of the scientific evidence found that at around 1.5\u2103 warming there was a transition\u00a0from moderate to high risk<\/a>\u00a0for threatened ecosystems and cultures and for extreme weather events. Thus there is consistency between the Paris and IPCC assessments.<\/p>\n

The Paris Agreement asked the IPCC to report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5\u2103, and this new publication is the result. Its tone is not \u201cwe must avoid 1.5\u2103 warming\u201d, as you might think from many commentators, but more \u201cif we want to avoid 1.5\u2103 warming, this is what must be done\u201d. The report contrasts the impact of 1.5\u2103 and 2\u2103 warmings, giving information on what would be gained by the extra effort needed to limit warming to 1.5\u2103.<\/p>\n

As the IPCC\u2019s reports are largely based on a critical assessment and synthesis of published scientific papers, many of its latest conclusions are unsurprising. There are many well recognised uncertainties in understanding climate change – for instance, even if we set a course aiming to hit 1.5\u2103 (which is mostly determined by future CO\u2082 emissions), we could end up hitting, say, 1\u2103 or 2\u2103 instead. The report provides uncertainty ranges in its estimates and confidence levels, based on expert judgement.<\/p>\n

The new report tells us that human activity has already caused about 1\u2103 of global warming, while at the present rate of warming (0.2\u2103 per decade) we\u2019ll hit 1.5\u2103 by about 2040. National pledges made as part of the Paris Agreement still mean we are on course for warming of about 3\u2103 by 2100, meaning four of the five \u201creasons for concern\u201d would then be in the high to very-high risk category.<\/p>\n

Achieving the 1.5\u2103 target will require anthropogenic CO\u2082 emissions to decline by 45% by 2030 (relative to 2010). By 2050, they will need to reach \u201cnet zero\u201d – any further CO\u2082 emissions due to human activity would then have to be matched by\u00a0deliberate removal<\/a>\u00a0of CO\u2082 already in the atmosphere, including by planting trees. Net zero would have to occur by around 2075 to meet a 2\u2103 target.<\/p>\n

Many illustrations are given for the difference between 1.5\u2103 and 2\u2103 worlds. At 1.5\u2103, summertime Arctic sea ice is projected to disappear once per century, compared to once per decade at 2\u2103; 8% of plants that have been studied would lose half their climatically-suitable area, compared to 16%; sea level rise would be 10cm less (with 10m fewer people impacted at today\u2019s population levels); and while coral reefs might decline by a further 80% at 1.5\u2103, they could virtually disappear at 2\u2103.<\/p>\n

The report identifies various routes by which emissions cuts would limit warming to 1.5\u2103; each makes assumptions about future changes in, for example, economic strategy, population growth and the rate at which low carbon energy is adopted. The IPCC recognises the challenges are \u201cunprecedented in scale\u201d but notes, for example, \u201cthe feasibility of solar energy, wind energy and electricity storage mechanisms have substantially improved over the past few years\u201d.<\/p>\n

The report is sensitive to the fact that changes required to meet 1.5\u2103 must be consistent with the UN\u2019s wider\u00a0sustainable development goals<\/a>. Limiting climate change will help meet goals associated with health, clean energy, cities and oceans. But there are potential negative impacts on others (poverty, hunger, water, energy access) \u201cif not carefully managed\u201d.<\/p>\n

So where next? Of course, the conclusions will be widely debated at many levels, but eyes will be on the UNFCCC\u2019s response at its next meeting, in Katowice, Poland, in early December.<\/p>\n

This post was first published on The Conversation, 8 October 2018<\/a>. Keith Shine<\/a> is\u00a0Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science\u00a0at the University of Reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We must take urgent action on an unprecedented scale to keep global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C says the IPCC’s new report, released today. 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