{"id":4224,"date":"2018-11-27T09:37:20","date_gmt":"2018-11-27T09:37:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=4224"},"modified":"2018-11-27T10:24:10","modified_gmt":"2018-11-27T10:24:10","slug":"sydneys-orange-sky-reminds-us-how-unpredictable-dust-storms-can-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2018\/11\/27\/sydneys-orange-sky-reminds-us-how-unpredictable-dust-storms-can-be\/","title":{"rendered":"Sydney\u2019s orange sky reminds us how unpredictable dust storms can be"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last week, a dust storm turned the Sydney skies orange and badly affected local air quality. Dr Claire Ryder explains why such phenomena occur and why more research is needed if we are to accurately forecast them, in a new post for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Satellite image from Himawari-8. The bright pink spot indicates the dust storm location. Image credit: UK Met Office.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/p>\n

People in Sydney woke on\u00a0the morning of Thursday November 22<\/a>\u00a0to see a bright orange sky as the sun was blotted out by a dust storm. Visibility and air quality were very poor and people with heart and lung conditions were advised to stay indoors. Ambulance call-outs spiked and extra paramedics were called upon to\u00a0deal with the crisis<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The dust cloud originated from north-western New South Wales, where strong winds ahead of a cold front met with dry, dusty soil. This lifted tiny dust particles into the atmosphere, which were carried hundreds of kilometres towards Sydney, and then onwards over the Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n

Any parts of the world which have an ample supply of soil dust particles, dry conditions, and strong winds are susceptible to dust storms. The \u201cdust belt<\/a>\u201d \u2013- a train of dust hotspots stretching from the Sahara desert across the Middle East to Central Asia, dominates global dust activity.<\/p>\n

Once dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere, they are transported thousands of kilometres by the prevailing winds due to their small size \u2013- around 1 to 10 microns \u2013 smaller than the width of a human hair. Over the Sahara during summertime, intense solar heating and convection allow dust to reach altitudes of\u00a0up to 5 km<\/a>, from where the dust particles can take up to ten days to sediment out of the atmosphere and travel as far as the Americas,\u00a0degrading Caribbean air quality<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Although Australia has its fair share of dust hotspots, they are more abundant across the global dust belt and atmospheric dust loadings are much higher in these regions. However, many of the world\u2019s largest dust hotspots are in sparsely inhabited regions such as the Sahara, so some of the worst impacts of dust storms are less frequently experienced by humans.<\/p>\n

Predicting future dust storms<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
Dust-filled air over the Sahara desert, 2012.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

So what can we expect from the future in terms of dust storms? Predicting their frequency, intensity and transport requires forecasts of surface wind speeds, surface conditions such as land surface type and soil moisture, and therefore also precipitation. Accurately simulating these properties over remote, sparsely observed regions such as the Sahara even in the present day is a\u00a0challenge to models<\/a>\u00a0due to the complex nature of the interaction between these parts of the climate system.<\/p>\n

Climate models are a valuable tool for forecasting dust storms and how they will affect us in the future. It might be expected that, in a warmer future with more drought conditions, we would experience more dust storms. However, the environmental conditions that drive dust storms must be considered in combination.<\/p>\n

For example,\u00a0one study<\/a>\u00a0actually predicts a decrease in African dust emissions throughout the 21st century due to a slowdown of tropical circulation and therefore surface winds, which drive the dust uplift. This scenario would result in improved air quality in West Africa.<\/p>\n

However elsewhere in\u00a0North America<\/a>, dust activity is predicted to increase by the end of the century over the Southern Great Plains largely due to reduced precipitation, enhanced land surface bareness and increased surface wind speed, while the opposite trend can be expected over the northern Great Plains.<\/p>\n

\n

Globally,\u00a0the trend in dust activity<\/a>\u00a0projected across the next century by climate models is highly variable regionally and seasonally. For Australia, climate models predict more dust activity during the southern hemisphere autumn, driven by increases in surface wind speeds.<\/p>\n

Our ability to forecast dust both in the short and long term requires an accurate understanding of the processes which drive dust uplift. Climate models need to be able to simulate surface wind speeds, precipitation, soil bareness and soil moisture, as well as the processes which drive transport in the atmosphere and allow dust particles to be\u00a0carried over long distances<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dust storms highlight how vulnerable societies are to these extreme weather events and how difficult predicting them is under a changing climate. They\u2019re affected by soil conditions on a microscopic scale and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and so dust storms are uniquely challenging to predict and we urgently need to find out more about them if we are to adequately prepare ourselves for the future.<\/p>\n

\n

This post was first published on The Conversation, 23 November 2018<\/a>. Dr Claire Ryder is a NERC Independent Research Fellow in Reading’s Department of Meteorology<\/a>. Her research focuses on mineral dust in the atmosphere, how it can impact weather and climate, and on using aircraft observations to better understand these impacts. Over the past 12 years Dr Ryder has been involved in projects to measure airborne aerosol particles over\u00a0Africa, the tropical Atlantic Ocean, south America, western Europe and around London and the UK. She uses aircraft observations to examine detailed aerosol processes and how they interact with shortwave and longwave radiation, particularly for absorbing aerosols such as dust and smoke.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last week, a dust storm turned the Sydney skies orange and badly affected local air quality. 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