{"id":4314,"date":"2018-11-29T15:57:42","date_gmt":"2018-11-29T15:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/?p=4314"},"modified":"2021-11-15T08:50:30","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T08:50:30","slug":"arctic-cold-war-climate-change-has-ignited-a-new-polar-power-struggle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2018\/11\/29\/arctic-cold-war-climate-change-has-ignited-a-new-polar-power-struggle\/","title":{"rendered":"Arctic cold war: climate change has ignited a new polar power struggle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rather than it ringing alarm bells, some nations see the melting of permafrost and sea ice in the Arctic Circle as an opportunity to get their hands on oil, gas, precious metals and new trade routes. There could be dark times ahead in the High North, says Reading’s Dr Mara Oliva in a recent post for The Conversation<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Climate change is redrawing the Arctic geopolitical map. Rising temperatures are causing permafrost and sea ice in the Arctic Circle to melt at an\u00a0alarming rate<\/a>. While this should be a worldwide cause for concern as its impact will have catastrophic consequences for the entire planet, the US, Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland instead see it as an opportunity to gain access to natural resources and new trade routes.<\/p>\n

The Royal Institute of International Affairs\u00a0estimates<\/a>\u00a0the region could contain up to 90 billion barrels of oil. According to the\u00a0US Geological Survey<\/a>, a fifth of the world\u2019s natural gas lays untouched beneath the Arctic ice sheet. The area is also rich in precious metals.<\/p>\n

In recent years, warmer summer months have made the area\u00a0more navigable<\/a>, too. In 2013, instead of using the traditional Panama Canal route, the\u00a0Nordic Orion<\/a>, a commercial ship, cut its journey from Vancouver to the Finnish port of Pari by about 1,850km by crossing the Arctic. And in 2017, the Russian oil tanker,\u00a0Cristophe de Margerie<\/a>, travelled from Norway to South Korea without the help of an icebreaker.<\/p>\n

As nations scramble to get their share of this 21st-century gold rush, old rivalries are resurfacing.<\/p>\n

Cold conflict<\/strong><\/p>\n

Conflict is age old in the Arctic.\u00a0Archaeological remains<\/a>\u00a0show it was a politically contentious area back in the 15th century. The Bering Sea also became the theatre of one of the American Civil war\u2019s battles, when Union vessels were attacked by the\u00a0Confederate CSS Shenandoah<\/a>\u00a0in 1865.<\/p>\n

Finland lost 11% of its\u00a0territory to Russia<\/a>\u00a0during the Winter War of 1939-1940, and fearing Japan would use the Aleutian Islands as a springboard to invade the American west coast, the US lost over 500 men trying to recapture them in 1943.<\/p>\n

During the Cold War, Washington and Ottawa set up the\u00a0Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line<\/a>, radar stations in the far north of Canada to monitor the airspace for potential attacks. The Soviets built ballistic missile submarines and placed them in the Barents and Kara Seas.<\/p>\n

While the post-Cold War period saw a relatively peaceful interlude \u2013 Russia was temporarily too economically weak to assert its power \u2013 the impact of climate change has reignited interest in the area.<\/p>\n

Russia has most aggressively pursued and defended its interests in the region. For Moscow, this is not just an opportunity for lucrative, but also a national defence issue.\u00a0The Kremlin considers<\/a>\u00a0the Arctic central to its military plans.<\/p>\n

Since the end of the Cold War, it has reopened\u00a0six military bases<\/a>\u00a0and built three new\u00a0nuclear icebreakers<\/a>. Moscow is also modernising its\u00a0Northern Fleet<\/a>. This will include two icebreaking corvettes capable of carrying the latest anti-ship missiles.<\/p>\n

In 2013, the same year Russia annexed Crimea, president Vladimir Putin carried out extensive\u00a0military exercises in the region<\/a>. And in March, while posing for a photo by an Arctic glacier, he\u00a0declared that<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“Natural resources, which are of paramount importance for the Russian economy, are concentrated in this region.”<\/span><\/p>\n

He then\u00a0proceeded to explain<\/a>\u00a0how he would extract US$30 trillion worth of black gold from the Arctic. During 2017, nearly\u00a0300 Russian exercises took place<\/a>\u00a0and more than 200 missiles were fired in the region.<\/p>\n

Western allies are increasingly fearful of Russia\u2019s aggression. Canada and Norway feel particularly threatened given the vast unpopulated areas in their northern territories and the natural resources off their coasts. They have\u00a0increased their defence spending<\/a>.<\/p>\n

NATO has\u00a0responded<\/a>\u00a0with the biggest military exercise since the Cold War. Recently, 50,000 NATO personnel took part in operation\u00a0Trident Juncture in Norway<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Enter the US<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US joined this race for the Arctic in April 2018 when the\u00a0Bureau of Land Management announced<\/a>\u00a0it would begin an environmental impact analysis for oil exploration in Alaska\u2019s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR); an area designated as protected wilderness by Congress in 1980. This will enable the Trump administration to issue leases to the oil and gas industry in early 2019.<\/p>\n

This will help satisfy America\u2019s need for fossil fuels, but also to make it harder for Moscow to explore its options. New\u00a0US sanctions<\/a>\u00a0have also targeted some Russian oil executives and prohibited American companies from dealing with them. As a result, Exxon Mobil was the first US\u00a0oil company to leave Russia<\/a>. More will follow. Oil is essential to the Russian economy, so Moscow will continue its aggressive pursuit of it.<\/p>\n

China also considers itself a \u201cnear Arctic state\u201d. Recently, it issued a\u00a0White Paper<\/a>\u00a0which characterised the Northwest Passage as an \u201cinternational strait\u201d. It stated:<\/p>\n

“China is an active participant, builder and contributor in Arctic affairs.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The aim is to create a \u201cPolar Silk Road\u201d that would become part of its\u00a0Belt and Road Initiative<\/a>\u00a0by making use of new shipping routes. China has also significantly increased investment in Greenland to expand infrastructure and hasten the island\u2019s independence from Denmark.<\/p>\n

Managing these competing interests will be a serious challenge, not least because the Arctic is a weak point in the\u00a0convoluted web<\/a>\u00a0of treaty-based and customary international law. There is no overarching treaty governing the \u201cHigh North\u201d. According to the\u00a0United Nations<\/a>, each country can claim up to 200 nautical miles off its coast of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). To get access to any area beyond this point, a country must prove that this outer zone belongs to them. So far, only Iceland and Norway have been approved for such a claim. Canada, Denmark and Russia have submitted overlapping claims that are still being debated.<\/p>\n

These tensions increase the risk of international conflict. While an outright war might not be the immediate outcome, other significant threats such as piracy (illegal and unregulated fishing, for example), and eco-terrorism are likely to become more frequent. More importantly, an open race for the natural resources could quickly lead to ocean depletion. These are dark times in the High North.<\/p>\n

This post first appeared on The Conversation, 28 November 2018<\/a>. Dr Mara Oliva is Lecturer in US History in the University of Reading’s Politics and International Relations research division. Her latest\u00a0project is on US foreign policy and climate change and she is currently looking at US foreign policy and climate change as a national security challenge in the post-Cold War era. The Arctic is one of the key areas of interest.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rather than it ringing alarm bells, some nations see the melting of permafrost and sea ice in the Arctic Circle as an opportunity to get their hands on oil, gas,…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":127,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[60,1157,189,1156,787,919],"class_list":["post-4314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prosperity-resilience","tag-american-politics","tag-arctic","tag-climate-change","tag-geopolitics","tag-russia","tag-us"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArctic cold war: climate change has ignited a new polar power struggle - Connecting Research<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2018\/11\/29\/arctic-cold-war-climate-change-has-ignited-a-new-polar-power-struggle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arctic cold war: climate change has ignited a new polar power struggle - 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