{"id":644,"date":"2017-03-09T10:03:28","date_gmt":"2017-03-09T10:03:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.reading.ac.uk\/the-forum\/?p=644"},"modified":"2021-11-12T10:16:58","modified_gmt":"2021-11-12T10:16:58","slug":"weather-forecasters-face-storm-of-criticism-so-is-it-time-for-a-new-look","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/research-blog\/2017\/03\/09\/weather-forecasters-face-storm-of-criticism-so-is-it-time-for-a-new-look\/","title":{"rendered":"Weather forecasters face storm of criticism \u2013 so is it time for a new look?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Dr Andrew Charlton-Perez, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Former BBC weather forecaster Bill Giles\u2019 criticism<\/a> of weather forecasts raises questions about how weather is communicated generally.<\/p>\n

Mr Giles has hit out at forecasters for regularly warning the public about the potential consequences of imminent severe weather, arguing they are \u2018behaving like nannies\u2019 and could cause the public to become \u2018immune\u2019 to the advice.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Rain in Reading – watch out for that puddle!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

He added the practice of naming storms had become too frequent, and that forecasters should only advise people about potential dangers for \u2018exceptionally severe weather\u2019, which occurs once every few years.<\/p>\n

But how much weather information is the right amount for the public? How much do they understand? Could an appreciation of the uncertainty of forecasts actually improve our faith in them?<\/p>\n

Research at the University of Reading has shown that not only is the average person able to process more complex weather forecast information, they are likely to make better decisions as a result of the additional information.<\/p>\n

Scientists at Reading have therefore begun looking at whether the way weather predictions are presented to the general public can be improved.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

While the days of people tuning in to the television to learn whether it will rain tomorrow aren\u2019t over yet, smartphone apps have already begun a revolution in the way we obtain forecasts.<\/p>\n

Localised forecast<\/h4>\n

However, these apps often simplify the data to present a black and white picture \u2013 for example, rain or no rain \u2013 when the reality is, like the Great British skies, somewhat greyer. The original data from agencies like the Met Office or AccuWeather often clearly portrays this uncertainty, yet many apps present only the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n

Mobile phone apps also present the user with a highly localised forecast, often with limited information provided about the level of detail the forecast can accurately predict. (We\u00a0published research<\/a> into the issues from mobile phone apps\u00a0in 2015.)<\/p>\n

The Met Office responded to Mr Giles\u2019 comments by saying members of the public are more concerned about the impact of weather on their day-to-day lives than the meteorological processes behind it. Making forecasts that allow people to make well informed decisions based on uncertain forecasts\u00a0 is a really important area of research in which Meteorologists can learn a lot from other fields like psychology and information design, something which our research team at Reading has been exploring.<\/p>\n

One of the exciting parts of thinking about how weather forecasts are produced is that technological development has meant that there are an almost limitless number of ways in which forecasts can be produced and tailored to individual end users. The challenge for both the public and private sectors is coming up with innovative ways of displaying weather forecast information that are fun and enjoyable to use, while also being informed by our current understanding of how humans process complex information.<\/p>\n

But with this week\u2019s criticism of current forecasts, it seems really important to develop a dialogue between academia, forecast providers and the public about what our weather forecasts will look like in the future.<\/p>\n