{"id":1032,"date":"2023-07-03T00:54:41","date_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:54:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1032"},"modified":"2023-07-03T00:54:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-02T23:54:41","slug":"abstract170","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract170\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 170"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 170<\/p>\n

Prediction of the seasonal variability of global summer monsoon precipitation<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Paul-Arthur Monerie
\nUniversity of Reading, United Kingdom
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> Seasonal prediction, monsoon precipitation, large-ensemble, precipitation<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> We assess skill of a prediction system (the Met Office\u2019s DePreSys3, a large ensemble) at forecasting summer monsoon precipitation at the seasonal time scale (2-5 month forecast period) for the global monsoon and for individual monsoon domains. We show that DePreSys3 is skilful at predicting the seasonal variability of summer monsoon precipitation over most of the monsoon domains. We assess sources of precipitation forecast skill decomposing precipitation into several dynamic and thermodynamic components. We show the skill for each of these precipitation components and we point out that deficiencies at predicting summer monsoon precipitation arises from difficulties at predicting anomalies in the atmospheric circulation patterns. We show that the use of a large ensemble improves skill for predicting monsoon precipitation.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>Jon Robson (University of Reading)
\nNick Dunstone (Met Office)
\nAndrew Turner (University of Reading)[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 170 Prediction of the seasonal variability of global summer monsoon precipitation Lead Author: Paul-Arthur Monerie University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: Seasonal prediction, monsoon precipitation, large-ensemble, precipitation Abstract:…Read More ><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145,"featured_media":0,"parent":528,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"__cvm_playback_settings":[],"__cvm_video_id":"","footnotes":""},"coauthors":[13],"class_list":["post-1032","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAbstract 170 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract170\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Abstract 170 - WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID: 170 Prediction of the seasonal variability of global summer monsoon precipitation Lead Author: Paul-Arthur Monerie University of Reading, United Kingdom Keywords: Seasonal prediction, monsoon precipitation, large-ensemble, precipitation Abstract:...Read More >\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract170\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"WWRP\/WCRP S2S Summit 2023\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"Robert Lee\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract170\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract170\/\",\"name\":\"Abstract 170 - 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