{"id":1061,"date":"2023-07-03T01:15:57","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/?page_id=1061"},"modified":"2023-07-03T01:15:57","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T00:15:57","slug":"abstract185","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/research.reading.ac.uk\/s2s-summit2023\/programme\/abstract185\/","title":{"rendered":"Abstract 185"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Abstract ID:<\/strong> 185<\/p>\n

PISSARO: a collaborative and user-oriented project on the monthly forecasting of extreme events in the southwest Indian Ocean<\/h2>\n

Lead Author:<\/strong> Sylvie Malardel
\nLaboratoire de l’Atmosph\u00e8re et des Cyclones (LACy), France (La R\u00e9union)
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> subseasonal forecasting, tropical cyclone, heavy tropical rainfall, ITCZ, Southwest Indian Ocean<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> The PISSARO project focuses on atmospheric and oceanic forecasting at the subseasonal scale for applications over the southwest Indian Ocean basin (SWIO). It is a collaborative academic research project, developed and conducted in partnership with stakeholders from Reunion and Seychelles and a panel of scientific experts in tropical forecasting.
\nThe different territories of the SWIO are subject to extreme events such as tropical cyclones and intense tropical rainfall. These phenomena are strongly influenced by larger scale atmospheric and oceanic patterns (ENSO, IOD, SIOD, MJO, tropical waves\u2026) which have some predictability at the subseasonal scale. During the tropical cyclone season, the low frequency variability of the atmosphere and the ocean, the MJO activity and the tropical waves and their possible interaction with the TC activity are summarized in an automatic weekly outlook posted on the PISSARO web site. Once a month, a team of experts expertise this information which is then further discussed with the PISSARO partners in a briefing led by the experts.
\nWe have also exploited the IFS monthly forecast ensemble for the development of future S2S-derived forecast products to provide probabilities of TC trajectory scenarios, rainfall anomalies and to follow the ITCZ migration in the southwest Indian Ocean. The products which have been designed and calibrated with the S2S data are now tested in real time during the 2023 austral summer by the forecasters of the Seychelles Meteorological Authority and at the RSMC-Tropical Cyclones of La R\u00e9union. At the end of the TC season, these prototypes will be evaluated and the best products will be selected for an operational implementation. Several examples of these products, together with the feedback from the users will be presented at this workshop.<\/p>\n

Co-authors:
\n<\/strong>H. V\u00e9r\u00e8mes (LACy), F. Bonnardot (Direction Inter R\u00e9gionale de M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France dans l\u2019Oc\u00e9an Indien, DIROI), P. Peyrill\u00e9 (Centre National de Recherches M\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques, CNRM), S. Langlade (DIROI), T. Lefort (Lefort Weather Consulting), L. Labb\u00e9 (DIROI), A. Cachard (LACy) and Q.-P. Duong (LACy).[\/vc_column_text][vc_separator][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”344″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”http:\/\/s2sprediction.net\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”345″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”346″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/community.wmo.int\/activity-areas\/wwrp”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”347″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.wcrp-climate.org\/”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”348″ img_size=”full”][\/vc_column][vc_column width=”1\/6″][vc_single_image image=”349″ img_size=”full” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https:\/\/www.reading.ac.uk\/”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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